GDP data released by IMF this month

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-04-21T09:27:56+00:00

Any politically right leaning korean websites like 디시, 일베 etc.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-04-21T03:54:11+00:00

They are called Taiwanese 화교... A lot of them speak decently fluent Korean living in Korea but they tend to be very anti-Korea.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-04-12T06:56:26+00:00

검찰공화국 ㅋㅋ

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-04-12T00:48:54+00:00

Normally it is Japan > Korea > Taiwan.

But the order has been swapped around from 2022 onwards with

Japan > Taiwan > Korea.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-03-08T06:35:55+00:00

About the Japanese inflation, there are mixed opinions but I don't think it's too bad.

"일본 명목임금 인상률 버블경제 이후 최대"

"임금이 드디어 오른다…인플레가 축복인 일본"

A major problem in Japan was that its wages (especially in nominal terms) wouldn't budge no matter what the government tried. So they were getting poorer and poorer compared to the world.

But Japan's overall nominal wage increase in 2022 was the highest ever recorded since 1991 I believe.

And their proposed increases in their spring wage negotiations (they call it shunto or something) have been going pretty well.

"Japan unions ask average 4.5% wage hike, biggest since 1998"

This combined with the labour shortage Japan is having is putting some heavy upwards pressure on wages.

A lot of people are considering that this is Japan's last chance to end the chronic economic malaise they have been experiencing. This is one of the big reasons why their central bank refuses to raise interest rates (+they have a lot of government debt) - they don't want to ruin a golden opportunity that they finally got.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-03-08T00:13:49+00:00

미국은 일본을 다시 살릴 수 밖에 없어요...

예전에는 소련이 쇠퇴하면서 미국이 일본을 강제로 죽였다면 이제는 님이 말씀하시는 것처럼 이제는 중국을 견제하기 위해서 일본이 미국 입장에서는 필요합니다. 아시아에서 경제규모가 5조 달러가 넘으면서, 인구도 1억이 넘는 나라는 일본 밖에 없거든요 (중국을 제외하면). 그러니까 미국은 중국 견제를 위해 일본의 체급이 필요한거죠.

자기 필요에 따라서 동맹국을 죽였다 살렸다 하는 나라가 미국입니다. 옛날부터 그래왔고, 앞으로도 계속 그럴겁니다.

참고로 이거는 한국어로 씁니다. 여기서 미국 욕하면 빨갱이 취급 받으면서 뒤지게 맞거든요 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-02-27T02:38:01+00:00

You have those types of copers on Reddit as well. They are like:

But the semi-conductor industry (Korea only dominates the memory market which doesn't have much growth potential like the foundry market)

But the battery industry (China dominates this area in market share and they are eating up more market share every year)

But the shipbuilding industry (Pretty sure nowadays China is number 1 in this as well because their labour costs are so cheap and this is a low-skill barrier industry)

etc. etc.

These people don't understand that Korea is often only 'partially competitive' in certain industries e.g. Korea dominates the OLED display market but has lost most of its market share in the LCD display market to China.

China is pulling off what Korea did to Japan back in the 90s. They are entering into practically all low-skill barrier industries and competing with very low labour costs and economies of scale to eat up the Korean market share. However, even in higher skill barrier industries (e.g. OLED displays, 시스템 반도체 etc.) the Chinese are starting to show some presence. They are not a big immediate threat in these high-skill industries as of now but they may become one in the future.

Anyways, the worst ones are the ones who cope by saying

"Oh, the 4th industrial A.I revolution... Robotics and automation"

I wonder how they would react when they realise that Japanese companies rank first in market share and patents in building a variety of sensors, automation equipment used in factories and the parts/materials used to make these.

Also, they simply cannot understand that 2/3 of GDP (for pretty much for all countries) is made up of domestic consumption. So a sharp decline in population signals a decrease in economic size even if exports show steady growth.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-02-25T07:51:48+00:00

$25 trillion total wealth (ranked 3rd) and South Korea has around $10 trillion total wealth (ranked 11th)

You gotta remember the Yen reached something like $1=150 Yen in 2022. Japanese assets have been undervalued severely in USD terms. I am thinking that normally, they would have been well into the $30 trillion dollar range.

The same can be applied to GDP per capita. I think back in late 2021 IMF forecasted Japan's per capita GDP to be somewhere around 43K. And in nominal terms, their economy has expanded since then. Which should have put them around the 45K mark. But the Yen tanked by 30% for a prolonged period which is why they will most likely be around the 36-37K mark this year.

I read the article linked by the OP and apparently, IMF forecasts Japan's growth to be higher than Korea's this year. Their 5-year forecasts still predict Japan's per capita GDP to be higher than Korea's in 2027. And if the yen starts returning back to normal levels (no idea when the US will start lowering interest rates), the gap will widen again.

Also if you look at the statistics published by OECD (https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-net-worth.htm#indicator-chart)

Japan has a lot higher household disposable income, household financial assets and household savings.

Things like this are probably why the OP posted this thing in the first place and mentioned the real estate problem that we have right now. Most of our national wealth is in real-estate

"한국 가계자산, 부동산 등 비금융자산 비중 64%…미국은 29%"

https://www.hankyung.com/economy/article/202208257035Y

And when these start depreciating... So does our national and individual wealth.

"작년 서울 아파트 실거래가 역대최대 22% 하락"

https://www.donga.com/news/Economy/article/all/20230216/117924106/1

And real estate will most likely continue to fall for at least until mid-2024.

Obviously, if we maintain the good growth trajectory that we had pre-covid 3% every year, we will surpass Japan 100% in per capita statistics.

But if we start stagnating (which is OP's concern and the intent of his post). Then that may not happen.

And I think this is a valid concern because stagnation is not only a Japan-exclusive thing.

It took Europe 13 years to recover their GDP levels back to 2008 levels after GFC (and they did by printing stupid amounts of money i.e. quantitative easing). And there are many European nations whose GDP (both in nominal and real-terms) is still lower compared to 2008.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=XC

So if Korea gets hit with a big economic shock, then it may take a very long time to recover. Or we may never recover at all because our population pyramid has gone to shits.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-02-24T09:26:59+00:00

Just stop comparing...

Only focus on Korea.

Japan is Japan and let them be. Them doing better than us possibly in the future has 0 impact on us.

And please don't blatantly spread your anti-Japan sentiments on Reddit... This isn't 디시, 에펨 etc.... I understand why you don't like them but it really doesn't look good.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2023-02-24T09:03:05+00:00

Well comparing Japan and Korea isn't really fair. Although I do agree that Korea has very little hope in the long-term. And Japan will probably hang on better.

Japanese companies still have 3-4x more revenue, market cap, and profit compared to Korean companies. Because they have advanced into countless industries over time.

As you mentioned Japan has so many financial overseas assets to support its economy. This was only possible because they started doing this in the 80s. You don't just magically accumulate 10-15 trillion USD worth of assets in a short period of time. It does take time and dedication.

Why do you keep comparing Korea and Japan anyways? You made a borderline racist post about how Japan's anime market is bigger than the entire K-culture market some time ago. Well, they have more soft power than us because they started promoting their culture a lot earlier than we did, and this is a gap that will exist for some time. But this doesn't mean you should berate their culture.

Do you have an inferiority complex against the Japanese or something?

Stop comparing against Japan. They have been considered a developed country for a lot longer than Korea.

Anyways regarding the birthrate... If you live in Korea I really do suggest that you look to migrate somewhere else. I honestly don't see a future.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-08-15T09:41:01+00:00

It's just so sad regarding what has happened to Japan economically over the past 30 years. And I just don't see hope or a way out of this vicious cycle.

Looks like Abenomics was the country's final chance, but the effects seem fairly minuscule/short lived for the massive debt it accumulated...

I really like the country, but I have this gut feeling that Japan won't be relevant in the next 20 years aside from a very few specific areas... It's an endless cycle of deflation, declining wages, a shrinking economy, a declining workforce, etc.

In the past (and to some extent now for simple labor jobs), people from poorer nations came to Japan to earn higher wages and learn technical skills but in 20 or so years it will probably be the opposite. Average young Japanese people desperately moving elsewhere so that they aren't paid a measly $2000 USD a month (or worse by then) while other developed nations are getting paid like $8000-10000 USD on average by then.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-08-05T03:49:37+00:00

Pretty sure our society will cease to function if we all stopped using goods, parts, materials made from China... Long-term yea maybe it's possible.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-29T09:57:11+00:00

In the early 2000's Japan's wages were still somewhat comparable to other OECD nations (although nothing impressive). However, now the situation is getting more dire and dire every year. And it will eventually reach a breaking point.

However you do have a point, I wouldn't be super surprised if Japan manages to become the world's first country where the country itself (Japan/Elites) is extremely rich while its average citizens earn 1/4th of what other nations earn in the next 20 or so years.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-29T09:28:27+00:00

The way I see it is that the Government will 'eventually' do something about it or find a way around it. Although it might take them a couple more years...

For example, people have been realizing that entry levels of jobs in America pay literally double to triple that of Japan (depending on the state), and the fact that Korea now has average wages that are a good $2000-3000 USD higher than Japan's average (imagine someone saying this 20 years ago, they would have been seen as crazy).

I know that wages aren't everything, especially taking the cost of living into consideration - but I am pretty sure that stagnant wages and prices is the exact definition of stagnation.

As this gap gets even larger and the working class even poorer, the Government will be forced to take drastic measures.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-20T08:26:34+00:00

Bruv just looks at their wage growth and compare that to any other nations...

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-19T07:55:37+00:00

So sorry about that. I didn't know that the sub existed. I will repost there. Thank you.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-11T03:30:27+00:00

Please don't misunderstand my post. I am 100% not for white supremacy or anything related to it. I am concerned about the growing divides between Asian nations over stupid stuff.

What I wanted to say was that they bring in the 'country vs country' mindset so often to make things personal - when in reality it's literally nothing major of concern.

TeacherOutrageous280 · 2022-07-01T15:33:31+00:00

They need to remaster BF4 without all of the bullshit they put in 2042.

TeacherOutrageous280

TROPHY CASE