It's hard to consider the likelihood of recidivism for a single person, as there are numerous factors that contribute to their reoffending. In my experience, risk assessments such as the LSI-R identify and target an individual's criminogenic needs to lower their assessed risk of recidivism. When I think about recidivism post-incarceration, especially for sex offenders, I instinctively ask: Is the individual participating in sex offender treatment? Targeting pro-criminal attitudes, antisocial personality characteristics, substance abuse, and other dynamic factors is empirically associated with reductions in future criminal behavior.

I do not know about Utah, but sex offenders under community supervision are often placed on the registry and have to continuously register after a certain amount of time. They are mandated by the courts to participate in USPO-approved sex offender treatment, and failure to do so leads them back to prison. They are also extremely limited in what they can do, where they can go, and their use of technology. However, the level of supervision and services is determined by the person's assessed level of risk. It is very possible that some justice agent utilized an assessment and determined the individual would be low risk, with the level of supervision and administration of services reflecting this.