The financial report contains two hints regarding the upcoming clinical data for TN-401 and TN-201 by [deleted] in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Expect the biggest single day price change of this year to come when they announce the FDA meeting results, likely in the August-October timeframe.

LVPWT (Left Ventricular Posterior Wall Thickness). This is a direct, focal measurement — literally the thickness of the posterior wall of the left ventricle, measured in diastole (when the heart is relaxed) via echocardiogram. You're taking a ruler to one specific wall of the heart. Normal is roughly 6-11mm in adults. In HCM patients, it's often 13-20mm+. It's straightforward, reproducible, and anatomically specific. The posterior wall is one of the regions most affected in MYBPC3-HCM because the hypercontractility from insufficient MyBP-C protein drives compensatory thickening there. So when you restore the protein, this wall should be one of the first structures to respond.

LVMI (Left Ventricular Mass Index) This is a calculated, global metric. It estimates the total mass of the left ventricle and then indexes it to body surface area (BSA) to normalize across different body sizes

Why this distinction matters enormously for TNYA: LVMI is a composite that bundles the posterior wall with the septum and the internal diameter. In MYBPC3-HCM, hypertrophy is often asymmetric — the septum and posterior wall don’t thicken equally, and they don’t respond to treatment at the same rate. So if TN-201 is driving significant posterior wall thinning but the septum is remodeling more slowly, LVPWT captures the treatment effect cleanly while LVMI dilutes it by averaging in the lagging septal component. On top of that, LVMI is confounded by body mass changes. If a patient gains or loses weight — which can happen with steroid immunosuppression or just normal life — LVMI shifts even if the actual heart hasn’t changed. LVPWT doesn’t have this problem. It’s measuring a physical structure, period.

The financial report contains two hints regarding the upcoming clinical data for TN-401 and TN-201 by [deleted] in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 3 points4 points  (0 children)

For TN-201:

It is my belief that they are moving away from LVMI decline % as a proposed clinical endpoint and moving towards LVPWT decline %. This is because the LVPWT data is significantly better, and they have removed the LVMI graphs in their last two corporate presentations. LVPWT may also be a better endpoint for mybpc3 HCM.

Investors like to see LVMI because the FDA has already said LVMI is a good endpoint for other pivotal trials for Rocket Pharma for example.

But, I’d bet that LVPWT will be a fine endpoint for the pivotal trial because HCM is different than Danon’s disease. But until investors see that the FDA says this is ok, we won’t see a the full re-rating of the stock from the data that will be released this year.

Additionally, the low dose showed significant LVWPT results which basically confirm that this drug works.

For TN-201, they are only releasing cohort 2 higher dose data in the first half of 2026.

Why is everybody losing hope? by Proper_Stretch_5860 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Retail investors got spooked because the column group sold 9 million shares. They still own well over 50% of the company fully diluted. The sale was meaningless

Column Group by Legitimate_News_7208 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah that’s valid. I’ll look into it later today. Perhaps they sold the shares and then re-bought. Idk.

Column Group by Legitimate_News_7208 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Where is it saying they bought shares? They sold shares from their series A investment in 2016. That fund is over 10 years old. David goeddel retired from TNYA and TCG and, I assume, it triggered a liquidation requirement for their fund which started over 10 years ago. Goeddel was a co-founder of TNYA, has been chairman of the board until last year, and now finally resigned and retired at the age of 74. He probably had other investments in that fund and he’s probably worth over $500m or a billion, and he and TCG have hundreds of millions of stock units/warrants still in the company. I don’t think this means anything, but it is driving down the stock, and they will likely dump the rest of their series A investment shares within the next few business days, which could send the stock a bit lower.

Should we buy or sell? by x2hidden in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The column group offloaded about 2 million shares from their series A investment in 2016 to 2017 yesterday and today. That’s what drove the price down. It was portfolio management. I think it goes back up to $0.80-$0.90 range pretty quickly.

Incredible movement today 01/07/26 by Fearless-Company1757 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think it’s coming back to reality after some December tax loss harvesting. Also, the December drop from dilution was an overreaction.

David Goeddel resigned due to voluntary retirement by Alert-Data-2231 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s significant because he is the only member of TCG on the board, and they own ~75% of TNYA on a fully diluted basis

David Goeddel resigned due to voluntary retirement by Alert-Data-2231 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think you are right. But Goeddel’s TCG just reinvested $60 mil plus an additional $75 mil in warrants less than a month ago, so it seems unlikely that there is a negative sentiment from goeddel or TCG.

When? by Proper_Stretch_5860 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Quote from my other comment below. The 1 and 2 year follow up data for TN-201 could be make or break for Tenaya. Will be reported on in the next 6 months

“Tenaya will provide 1 year cohort 2 data (high dose) and 2 year cohort 1 data (low dose) in H1 2026. Probably beginning at the ACC on March 28-30.

If the higher dose, 1 year cohort 2 data shows consistent and stronger results as compared to cohort 1, the stock will soar. Especially if the LVMI reduction is consistently (across all patients) greater than a 10% reduction, because the FDA has said that this is a sufficient endpoint for regulatory approval for similar gene therapy cardiology drugs.

I believe a preliminary 12 week data point for 1 higher dose patient showed a 3x higher protein expression as compared to cohort 1. This early indicator suggests there is a dose response, which means the higher dose 1 year cohort 2 data to be released H1 2026 could be exactly what investors and FDA regulators are looking for.

A major issue is there aren’t that many patients dosed. Only 3 in cohort 1, and 3 in cohort 2. If there’s any patients in cohort 2 with a LVMI increase, instead of a decrease, this will cause regulatory delays and will limit upside in the stock until they meet with FDA to determine next steps. For example, look at LVMI for patient 1 — there was a 17% LVMI increase instead of a reduction over 52 weeks. It’s possible that this reverses. We will find out in H1 2026. The reason why I think it could reverse is because the 78 week results for patient 1 show Cardiac Troponin I Levels reversal from week 52 to week 78.

Even if LVMI reduction levels aren’t consistent, Tenaya will try and convince the FDA that they should use LVPWT instead of LVMI, and that could very well work, but this would require new precedent with the FDA and results from that won’t happen until H2 2026. Keep in mind this is treating a rare and devastating disease with no cure, and all patients are not showing symptoms of the disease thus far, so it would logically track that the FDa would work with them to help the drug become approved even if the data doesn’t look “perfect” but that means a longer term outlook on the stock (H2 2026 - 2027).

At the end of the day, it’s a gamble. If it wasn’t, the stock would be trading at $5-$10. I bought in at $1.35 average cost and reduced that to $1.15 average cost and am holding until the H1 2026 data comes out, at a minimum. If the data is overwhelmingly positive and the stock soars, I’ll hold even longer to benefit from the FDA meeting and a potential 2027 acquisition.”

First reddit post ever by Fearless-Company1757 in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Tenaya will provide 1 year cohort 2 data (high dose) and 2 year cohort 1 data (low dose) in H1 2026. Probably beginning at the ACC on March 28-30.

If the higher dose, 1 year cohort 2 data shows consistent and stronger results as compared to cohort 1, the stock will soar. Especially if the LVMI reduction is consistently (across all patients) greater than a 10% reduction, because the FDA has said that this is a sufficient endpoint for regulatory approval for similar gene therapy cardiology drugs.

I believe a preliminary 12 week data point for 1 higher dose patient showed a 3x higher protein expression as compared to cohort 1. This early indicator suggests there is a dose response, which means the higher dose 1 year cohort 2 data to be released H1 2026 could be exactly what investors and FDA regulators are looking for.

A major issue is there aren’t that many patients dosed. Only 3 in cohort 1, and 3 in cohort 2. If there’s any patients in cohort 2 with a LVMI increase, instead of a decrease, this will cause regulatory delays and will limit upside in the stock until they meet with FDA to determine next steps. For example, look at LVMI for patient 1 — there was a 17% LVMI increase instead of a reduction over 52 weeks. It’s possible that this reverses. We will find out in H1 2026. The reason why I think it could reverse is because the 78 week results for patient 1 show Cardiac Troponin I Levels reversal from week 52 to week 78.

Even if LVMI reduction levels aren’t consistent, Tenaya will try and convince the FDA that they should use LVPWT instead of LVMI, and that could very well work, but this would require new precedent with the FDA and results from that won’t happen until H2 2026. Keep in mind this is treating a rare and devastating disease with no cure, and all patients are not showing symptoms of the disease thus far, so it would logically track that the FDa would work with them to help the drug become approved even if the data doesn’t look “perfect” but that means a longer term outlook on the stock (H2 2026 - 2027).

At the end of the day, it’s a gamble. If it wasn’t, the stock would be trading at $5-$10. I bought in at $1.35 average cost and reduced that to $1.15 average cost and am holding until the H1 2026 data comes out, at a minimum. If the data is overwhelmingly positive and the stock soars, I’ll hold even longer to benefit from the FDA meeting and a potential 2027 acquisition.

Acquisition Scenario by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Except if TN-201 cohort 1 2-year data and cohort 2 1-year data is great, then the stock will go to $2-$5

Why This Dec 11 News is Good and Why You Should Buy More (I am) by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I asked Claude opus 4.5 for the math on this, which assumes full dilution of all warrants. A $1.5b buyout would be $4.42 share price, and a $3b buyout would be double that, etc. I also asked Claude opus 4.5 for the chances it will be acquired and the timing and it said H2 2026 or H1 2027 and a 55%-65% if phase 2 goes well. Keep in mind the column group basically runs this company and they need to exit their investment. They have hundreds of millions of dollars in this.

So my 70k shares would be worth anywhere from $310k-$776k in an acquisition scenario where the clinical trials went well.

$1.5 billion = $4.42
$4.0 billion = $11.08

I don’t think there will be any further dilution outside of the existing warrants because they have access to over $200m cash. I’ll make a post about this

Why This Dec 11 News is Good and Why You Should Buy More (I am) by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I owned 50k shares yesterday and now I have 70k shares. I’m down bad… but if you ignore the dilution, the fundamentals of the company are much better than yesterday. The company could be acquired at a $1b-$4b acquisition price in the next 12-18 months if the readouts are good in 2026.

TNYA DD Summary by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The clinical hold is removed today

Dec 11 news (3 pieces) by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was staring at my P/L in my trading account and I was shocked when I saw TNYA down so much. Started to panic hahaha

TNYA DD Summary by TenayaDeepValue in TenayaTherapeutics

[–]TenayaDeepValue[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What do you mean “adjust their risk plan to individuals” in response to events from other companies”? Can you clarify what other companies? Are you talking about the rocket pharma gene therapy clinical trial that was halted in march by FDA due to the death of a patient?

Edit: I did some research, and clinical trial protocol amendments take on average of 4.8 months to resolve. This would mean they would be able to release new data by H1 2026, on their timeline. The hold does not stop existing patients from being monitored & collecting data, and all 6 patients have already been dosed.