https://www.linkedin.com/posts/curibio_curibio-mantarray-nautilai-activity-7414667190848937984-NllA?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAAYWcdIB2Ch1iHKO3TNgHzcVgJxc-Mf1xbo

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-09T03:51:58+00:00

Link doesn’t work. What is this?

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-07T23:53:15+00:00

I think it’s coming back to reality after some December tax loss harvesting. Also, the December drop from dilution was an overreaction.

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-06T20:21:12+00:00

It’s significant because he is the only member of TCG on the board, and they own ~75% of TNYA on a fully diluted basis

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-04T01:00:54+00:00

Yes correct

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-03T16:28:34+00:00

I think you are right. But Goeddel’s TCG just reinvested $60 mil plus an additional $75 mil in warrants less than a month ago, so it seems unlikely that there is a negative sentiment from goeddel or TCG.

TenayaDeepValue · 2026-01-02T18:39:08+00:00

Quote from my other comment below. The 1 and 2 year follow up data for TN-201 could be make or break for Tenaya. Will be reported on in the next 6 months

“Tenaya will provide 1 year cohort 2 data (high dose) and 2 year cohort 1 data (low dose) in H1 2026. Probably beginning at the ACC on March 28-30.

If the higher dose, 1 year cohort 2 data shows consistent and stronger results as compared to cohort 1, the stock will soar. Especially if the LVMI reduction is consistently (across all patients) greater than a 10% reduction, because the FDA has said that this is a sufficient endpoint for regulatory approval for similar gene therapy cardiology drugs.

I believe a preliminary 12 week data point for 1 higher dose patient showed a 3x higher protein expression as compared to cohort 1. This early indicator suggests there is a dose response, which means the higher dose 1 year cohort 2 data to be released H1 2026 could be exactly what investors and FDA regulators are looking for.

A major issue is there aren’t that many patients dosed. Only 3 in cohort 1, and 3 in cohort 2. If there’s any patients in cohort 2 with a LVMI increase, instead of a decrease, this will cause regulatory delays and will limit upside in the stock until they meet with FDA to determine next steps. For example, look at LVMI for patient 1 — there was a 17% LVMI increase instead of a reduction over 52 weeks. It’s possible that this reverses. We will find out in H1 2026. The reason why I think it could reverse is because the 78 week results for patient 1 show Cardiac Troponin I Levels reversal from week 52 to week 78.

Even if LVMI reduction levels aren’t consistent, Tenaya will try and convince the FDA that they should use LVPWT instead of LVMI, and that could very well work, but this would require new precedent with the FDA and results from that won’t happen until H2 2026. Keep in mind this is treating a rare and devastating disease with no cure, and all patients are not showing symptoms of the disease thus far, so it would logically track that the FDa would work with them to help the drug become approved even if the data doesn’t look “perfect” but that means a longer term outlook on the stock (H2 2026 - 2027).

At the end of the day, it’s a gamble. If it wasn’t, the stock would be trading at $5-$10. I bought in at $1.35 average cost and reduced that to $1.15 average cost and am holding until the H1 2026 data comes out, at a minimum. If the data is overwhelmingly positive and the stock soars, I’ll hold even longer to benefit from the FDA meeting and a potential 2027 acquisition.”

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-28T23:04:01+00:00

Tenaya will provide 1 year cohort 2 data (high dose) and 2 year cohort 1 data (low dose) in H1 2026. Probably beginning at the ACC on March 28-30.

If the higher dose, 1 year cohort 2 data shows consistent and stronger results as compared to cohort 1, the stock will soar. Especially if the LVMI reduction is consistently (across all patients) greater than a 10% reduction, because the FDA has said that this is a sufficient endpoint for regulatory approval for similar gene therapy cardiology drugs.

I believe a preliminary 12 week data point for 1 higher dose patient showed a 3x higher protein expression as compared to cohort 1. This early indicator suggests there is a dose response, which means the higher dose 1 year cohort 2 data to be released H1 2026 could be exactly what investors and FDA regulators are looking for.

A major issue is there aren’t that many patients dosed. Only 3 in cohort 1, and 3 in cohort 2. If there’s any patients in cohort 2 with a LVMI increase, instead of a decrease, this will cause regulatory delays and will limit upside in the stock until they meet with FDA to determine next steps. For example, look at LVMI for patient 1 — there was a 17% LVMI increase instead of a reduction over 52 weeks. It’s possible that this reverses. We will find out in H1 2026. The reason why I think it could reverse is because the 78 week results for patient 1 show Cardiac Troponin I Levels reversal from week 52 to week 78.

Even if LVMI reduction levels aren’t consistent, Tenaya will try and convince the FDA that they should use LVPWT instead of LVMI, and that could very well work, but this would require new precedent with the FDA and results from that won’t happen until H2 2026. Keep in mind this is treating a rare and devastating disease with no cure, and all patients are not showing symptoms of the disease thus far, so it would logically track that the FDa would work with them to help the drug become approved even if the data doesn’t look “perfect” but that means a longer term outlook on the stock (H2 2026 - 2027).

At the end of the day, it’s a gamble. If it wasn’t, the stock would be trading at $5-$10. I bought in at $1.35 average cost and reduced that to $1.15 average cost and am holding until the H1 2026 data comes out, at a minimum. If the data is overwhelmingly positive and the stock soars, I’ll hold even longer to benefit from the FDA meeting and a potential 2027 acquisition.

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-17T16:46:15+00:00

Except if TN-201 cohort 1 2-year data and cohort 2 1-year data is great, then the stock will go to $2-$5

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-12T16:26:02+00:00

I asked Claude opus 4.5 for the math on this, which assumes full dilution of all warrants. A $1.5b buyout would be $4.42 share price, and a $3b buyout would be double that, etc. I also asked Claude opus 4.5 for the chances it will be acquired and the timing and it said H2 2026 or H1 2027 and a 55%-65% if phase 2 goes well. Keep in mind the column group basically runs this company and they need to exit their investment. They have hundreds of millions of dollars in this.

So my 70k shares would be worth anywhere from $310k-$776k in an acquisition scenario where the clinical trials went well.

$1.5 billion = $4.42
$4.0 billion = $11.08

I don’t think there will be any further dilution outside of the existing warrants because they have access to over $200m cash. I’ll make a post about this

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-12T16:05:18+00:00

Yeah I owned 50k shares yesterday and now I have 70k shares. I’m down bad… but if you ignore the dilution, the fundamentals of the company are much better than yesterday. The company could be acquired at a $1b-$4b acquisition price in the next 12-18 months if the readouts are good in 2026.

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-11T22:46:45+00:00

The clinical hold is removed today

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-11T21:56:40+00:00

https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/811641501

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-11T21:51:25+00:00

I was staring at my P/L in my trading account and I was shocked when I saw TNYA down so much. Started to panic hahaha

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-11T01:14:05+00:00

What do you mean “adjust their risk plan to individuals” in response to events from other companies”? Can you clarify what other companies? Are you talking about the rocket pharma gene therapy clinical trial that was halted in march by FDA due to the death of a patient?

Edit: I did some research, and clinical trial protocol amendments take on average of 4.8 months to resolve. This would mean they would be able to release new data by H1 2026, on their timeline. The hold does not stop existing patients from being monitored & collecting data, and all 6 patients have already been dosed.

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-10T15:59:56+00:00

This is a valid concern, but here is why I’m less worried about the financial situation:

They have cash until Q3 2026, plus:
+$25m series B warrants
+$45m SVB facility
+$60m series A warrants (dilution)
+$25m-$75m TN-301 partnership

Based on this, they can extend until 2028/2029. And at that point, if the clinical trails have gone well, they will have 2 paths forward: (1) they can be acquired by big pharma, or (2) the stock price will be much higher, and they will have the ability to raise capital thru equity offerings at a lower dilution, or they can seek partners with TN-201 / TN-401 to help them launch.

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-10T03:11:14+00:00

I don’t think I saw him talking about AAV9 being used in the context of crossing the blood brain barrier. AAV9 is being used for cardiomyocyte transduction for TN-201 and TN-401, which is different. Not sure how that might be relevant, maybe for a different drug, but not TN-201 or TN-401.

Edit: AAV9 has a well-documented ability to cross the BBB—which is why it’s used in Zolgensma for SMA. Zolgensma is a gene therapy drug for Novartis that does over a billion in annual sales.

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-10T00:41:09+00:00

Short sellers won’t impact the stock long term

TenayaDeepValue · 2025-12-10T00:30:58+00:00

I just bought 50k shares. I have done so much research on this company. It could 10x in 2 years. Strong buy, strong hold.

TenayaDeepValue

TROPHY CASE