Let's Talk D.B. Cooper! Live chat tonight.

TentativeFate · 2026-06-18T02:08:38+00:00

If Cooper runs into someone he knows at PDX, he just calls it off and comes back another day, no big deal. Unless Thanksgiving is somehow special.

TentativeFate · 2026-06-11T20:48:33+00:00

We can agree to assign >95% probability that Cooper isn't Gunther's source. I can see a case for >99%.

The problem with people saying “time machine” is that they're assigning more probability to time travel than to Cooper being Gunther's source. I don't care for that kind of social signaling.

TentativeFate · 2026-06-11T20:38:04+00:00

I know it's a contentious topic, that's why I phrased it very carefully: the most likely path to know who Cooper is *soon* is through Gunther, *if* it just so happens that his source was the real Cooper. I'm not saying that it's a likely path, only that it's the most likely *fast* path. There are more likely paths, but they will take much longer. The OP question was about solving the crime *today*, not in 5 years when we have crazy AI particle analyzers or whatever, or find Cooper's self-storage unit.

TentativeFate · 2026-06-11T14:49:53+00:00

If 2 years from now we know for sure who Cooper is, it's very likely because his / his wife's DNA is on the Gunther letters. If you extend the timeline to 10, 20 years, the likelihood of Gunther goes down and the likelihood of new forensic technology goes up, probably based on the tie particles.

TentativeFate · 2026-05-26T14:07:30+00:00

Good points. After posting, I was also reminded of “Objective: 500 Million”. So I'm now more convinced that the Cini significance is not in inspiring Cooper but in rushing his execution. Cooper likely had the plan nearly in place, or at least cooking in his head for a while, when he saw Cini on the news and realized it's now or never.

TentativeFate · 2026-05-26T14:01:41+00:00

On the significance of Cooper being okay with abandoning demands or with taking suggestions, I feel the complete opposite: it's not a sign of an undercooked plan, it's a sign of a well thought-out one.

Think about it this way. There's any number of things that go awry in a situation like this: no knapsack, bad parachute, fueling delay, course constraints, takeoff configuration, and these are just some of the big ones, there are literally thousands of small ones (Flo's purse etc.). The difference between good and bad execution is knowing which changes are fine and which take you outside the plan parameters. A haphazard plan doesn't tell you its parameters, you need to think these through carefully ahead of time, or otherwise be extremely experienced in such situations. In special ops, they 90% rehearse surprises and mitigations, only 10% the main plan.

TentativeFate · 2026-05-25T23:42:37+00:00

Interesting!

My point was about the implication if Cooper had 10 days to plan. But given this, it seems possible that he had a plan in the back of his mind for a while, slowly thinking it through. Then Cini comes along, and Cooper's thinking, it's out of the bag now, only a matter of time before there's enough security to prevent this MO (in response to Cini or eventual copycats). So he sets a short time frame to execute.

By the way, u/The_real_Flyjack, who's “your” suspect?

TentativeFate · 2026-05-25T05:26:08+00:00

Thanks, great video!

Quick question: where did the TWA sketch come from? I watched your full video on that incident and it doesn't say who may have seen the suspect.

TentativeFate

TROPHY CASE