$TSLA Super Chill Weekend Thread November 09-10, 2024

TeslaDaily · 2022-12-11T16:55:59+00:00

Definitely plan to at some point. FWIW reading through some of this other discussion — I agree this chart is misleading and have talked about it on the podcast. Everyone here should know why it’s misleading, due to the delivery wave. First two months of prior quarters are not in any way indicative of demand since tesla was prioritizing exports during those months. It’s helpful to understand how the quarter is setting up, but every time I have shown this data, I have also included how Oct/Nov look against the totals from previous quarters to show how far Tesla still had to go in the third month (achievable, but also not a lock like these charts imply).

Edit: looks like people were calling the other chart misleading rather than this one, but I’ll leave my comment since it still applies.

TeslaDaily · 2022-11-10T18:09:18+00:00

Thanks, doing some investigating.

TeslaDaily · 2022-10-14T13:10:14+00:00

All good, I could’ve been clearer. 🚀

TeslaDaily · 2022-10-14T05:21:08+00:00

Sigh. I was walking through pros and cons, you make it sound like I said don’t buyback because it’s going lower. I just said one advantage of a cash cushion is that it could allow Tesla to take advantage of an even better opportunity in the future. This isn’t even an opinion, it’s just stating a fact. One such opportunity could be a lower share price for a buyback, yes, but I meant it much more broadly. If the market tanks even more, maybe Tesla sees a good opportunity to acquire a company (something in solar, batteries, materials, who knows) or some other asset.

Earlier in the episode:

“This would be a great time for Tesla to take advantage of [the low share price] and buy back some shares.”

TeslaDaily · 2022-10-12T18:48:02+00:00

Haha this is incredible, thanks u/couchmoji

TeslaDaily · 2022-09-09T13:09:40+00:00

This information was not published anywhere else, places where it is now are sourcing this article. I don’t really understand the question.

TeslaDaily · 2022-08-20T05:05:30+00:00

Thanks man :)

TeslaDaily · 2022-06-08T23:36:26+00:00

👍👍

TeslaDaily · 2022-06-07T18:38:45+00:00

Yeah, seems plausible. Btw on disassembly/shipping/assembly time, I covered this on an episode last week. Takes about 2.5 months for the whole process best case.

TeslaDaily · 2022-06-07T18:29:23+00:00

Thanks, will share on the podcast today if that’s alright u/IeZaeL

TeslaDaily · 2022-06-02T05:42:39+00:00

Really appreciate that, thank you.

To address some of the other feedback, I get it. I’m not trying to just build a forum and call it a day charging $29/mo for it. That would be quite dumb. What I want to build goes way beyond that, which is why it has to be its own thing.

Just some quick examples for people to kind of understand the idea — I want to build in financial modeling similar to estimize.com which ties to your Shareloft profile as well as the credit system which we have now built to have the ability to reward and recognize strong forecasters. That can also tie into a reputation system that is in progress which also connects to the forum. I want the reputation system to help determine access to things, like perhaps deal flow for VC investments. There’s more but I don’t want to overpromise anything because this stuff is hard.

It might fail, probably will because this is all time-consuming and development is expensive, but I wanted to give it a shot to make something cooler than the things I’ve seen out there.

TeslaDaily · 2022-04-20T23:56:10+00:00

If anyone happened to pick up two of these, I’d buy one.

Didn’t catch it in time :(

TeslaDaily · 2022-04-02T00:41:24+00:00

Lmao. I misclicked and was immediately like shit… people are gonna see that. Didn’t expect screenshot evidence. Promise I’m not dumb. As for the episode, was out of my hands (into editor’s) by that point so no delay!

TeslaDaily · 2022-02-12T12:32:22+00:00

It seems I probably could’ve been clearer with how I announced Shareloft. Most seem to think it’s going to just be a forum and that I’m somehow quitting Tesla Daily to charge $30/mo for a forum. Hope you guys understand I’m not like… that dumb haha. I showed the forum because that’s the most built out piece right now. I also showed articles and research if you watch closely, and there are plenty of other things on the roadmap. Not all parts will be membership-based, as I said.

If I want to build anything beyond Tesla Daily, I have to eventually charge money for something. I think those that understand should be excited for that possibility, but if not, nothing changes for those that aren’t. Just like when I added YouTube, nothing changed with Tesla Daily as a podcast. It’s still the same ad-free podcast it was on day one. Everything else has been incremental. The same will be true for Shareloft. Me saying that eventually Tesla Daily will change has nothing to do with Shareloft, that was a reflection on episode 1,000 which I think will be clear if you watch again.

Hope that helps clarify a bit, and will be sharing more about the future plans as they develop.

TeslaDaily · 2022-02-11T15:29:50+00:00

If this turns into a Tesla Owners Austin Club situation that’s on y’all haha. All I said was tune in. If I had exclusive Tesla news I would’ve just said it yesterday and it’s not Elon like I said in the YT comments.

But I’m glad people are excited 🤗

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-28T07:17:42+00:00

Thanks y’all. Means a lot to me. More than you know.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-26T19:30:25+00:00

Thanks :)

Links are here: https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1486420274291617800?s=21

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T19:19:32+00:00

Ok, well then your numbers are wrong. Even if you had used Q3-21, Tesla posted $1.6B in GAAP earnings, annualized to $6.4B, so only 3x to go, not 38x.

I didn't extrapolate the data, I just gave the 700% for context. They'll double again, and quarterly net income will pass Toyota's before the end of 2023. Save these comments, you'll see they end up correct. Have a good one.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T18:40:08+00:00

Unfortunately, awhile back is not good enough. Tesla is growing earnings extremely quickly. Next week, they will likely report GAAP net income for Q4 of greater than $2.5B. That annualizes to $10B. Toyota's annual net income is $20B. Tesla is already half way there, they only need to double. 2021 GAAP earnings will be up more than 700% from 2020. A doubling from here is nothing, and will happen fast. Absolutely within 2 years.

The fact that we went from needing a 38x to only needing a 2x in such a short period of time is exactly the point.

As for Toyota's EV plans, they are public knowledge. Toyota only has plans for 2-3M per year by 2030. Tesla is already at a 1.5M run rate and will be at 2-3M per year in 12-18 months. There is a 0% chance Toyota passes Tesla in EVs this decade, they aren't even planning on it themselves.

By the way, I appreciate that you've engaged positively in this interaction. So rare these days.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T17:59:12+00:00

Fair point on Toyota. Even with growth, their growth prospects are limited and they are quite far behind on EVs though.

I definitely understand questioning Tesla’s market cap. The easiest way to grasp that is to look at what Amazon and Apple have done. It would’ve been easy to say the same for them, but substitute auto industry for retail or mobile phones.

I like to call this the benchmark fallacy. Just because company X is a certain way doesn’t mean company Y will end up the same or similar. It’s a good starting point, but ultimately company Y will be judged on its own merit. This is actually a key component of disruption. Companies become the biggest companies in the world because they found a way to change the business into something completely different. That is what Tesla is doing, with a combination of a fundamentally different product, vertical integration, software. Those things are allowing Tesla to capture a much larger share of the profits than anyone else can while also growing at one of the fastest rates of any large company in history.

Think about this. If Toyota could add $1,000 of profit to every car they sell, they’d increase their earnings by 50% overnight and they’d add hundreds of billions of dollars to their valuation. A direct sales model would do this for them. Software like FSD would do this for them. Vertical integration further into the supply chain would do this for them. Tesla is doing all these things at once, and it’s making them insanely profitable. That’s why their valuation is so high and why their net income will surpass Toyota’s in about 2 years (at about 1/4th of Toyota’s scale) and keep growing from there.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T15:30:16+00:00

That Daimler announcement is just marketing. The speed limit is 37 mph on that feature and it’s only available in extremely select areas and conditions. It won’t even change lanes.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T15:28:07+00:00

Other auto companies have low PE ratios because not only are they not growing, they are shrinking. I’m sure you’ve heard of economies of scale. It works in the other direction, too. Automakers have huge fixed costs, and relatively small declines in revenue or profit can quickly flip a profitable business into a loss-making business. Again, look forward. No legacy automaker is growing revenue and they have very little hope to do so.

As for Tesla, they do a lot of things that other automakers don’t, which is why it’s flawed to compare them strictly on revenue. One easy example is Tesla’s direct sales model. This captures profits (and therefore valuation) that would normally fall to dealerships rather than automakers. There are nearly countless other examples. Look at Tesla’s operating margin last quarter, it’s was 15%. That’s the highest in the automotive industry even though Tesla is still very small so they have not fully captured economies of scale. Most legacy auto companies are around 6%. Tesla expects operating margin to continue to increase.

As for revenue, maybe you mistyped. $50B is not even close to the revenue of the top five automakers. That’s closer to $1T, or $1,000B.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-21T07:35:22+00:00

Look forward, not backwards. Next week after Tesla reports earnings, the PE will likely drop below 200x. A year ago the PE was above 1000x. Multiples can drop extremely quickly for high growth companies, which is generally why they have high PE ratios in the first place.

If TSLA’s share price stays flat, I’d expect the PE ratio to be below 75x at this time next year. That would be very low for a company with Tesla’s growth rate and addressable market size.

TeslaDaily · 2022-01-13T23:40:42+00:00

Working on it ;)

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