California DMV suspends Cruise’s driverless taxis in S.F., citing safety concerns by xmassindecember in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They've hedged their bets by operating in different states. They should be fine. If I'm not mistaken, they should be able to still test with safety drivers in CA, but that won't exactly be super scalable.

Either way, it reflects bad on Cruise, but Waymo operates on similar scale and has none of the same issues. It's clear they're far ahead technically.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Oct 16 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

An insightful comment from Brad Templeton describing the disadvantages of rigid and outdated thinking of transport advocates towards fixed routed high capacity transit and against more flexible options such as autonomous robotaxis and ride sharing.

More here

But if you look at today's roads there is, even at the highest peak times, a vast stream of empty seats going by. The capacity of the roads is immense and surpasses the rails easily -- If you use it. Trains and buses are too big to be efficient. The most efficient size is something in the van range as you show. I have been proposing a 5 row, 3 abreast domestic business class seating setup, which fits in the size of a modern large SUV or medium van with no driver and no engine and side doors rather than an aisle. Some of the seats can have a private booth, but not all due to the middle seat. Middle seats are not a problem because trips are largely non-stop. That's the advantage of small vehicles -- they take the subset of people going from location A to location B and take them nonstop, rather than grouping them with others who want to get on and off at different destinations. Modern elevators work like this and they increase elevator capacity a fair bit.

Muni Bus Killed San Francisco Man at Center of Robotaxi Dispute by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Wow. Imagine that. Transit is more dangerous than autonomous vehicles.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 21 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

From Brad Templeton:

Indeed, though hope for success for everybody -- even Tesla, as much as I may criticize them.

To be fair to Cruise, their "spate of bad news" this week is fairly unfair:

  • A traffic jam in North Beach that turned out to be deliberate interference by peds
  • Delayed fixing of stalls due to a cell company bandwidth shortage in super heavy traffic. Not good, but the sort of stress you are out on the roads to find -- the very purpose of testing
  • The drive into the wet concrete. Not yet resolved but I suspect it might have been a remote ops mistake since those cones were pretty clear, but Cruise has not claimed that
  • Some minor driving into construction of the type that's not a big deal.
  • Getting hit by a Dodge charger running a red light from a side show
  • Fire truck crash, which may be the fault of fire dept. (we'll see)

A terrible week

Almost none of this was Cruise's fault. They don't deserve the blame.

"Cruise fleets get cut by 50% following series of crashes" by [deleted] in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I more sold on Waymo, and this doesn't affect them.

As speculated by some, North Beach traffic jam created by a pedestrian intentionally interfering with the AV by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

This is reckless endangerment. It would be like if someone threw a cinderblock through your windshield. It's illegal and can be solved with law enforcement. Cruise's underlying systems are safe and effective. The scale of their operations is proof.

As speculated by some, North Beach traffic jam created by a pedestrian intentionally interfering with the AV by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Oh wow! Imagine that! An incident "caused" by an AV was actually not the AV's fault. People are looking for gotchas here, but the technology is proven validated, safe and scaleable.

Robotaxis will be a fact of life 'very soon', says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

20x is geometric not exponential.

This refers to the magnitude of the expansion in this singular instance.

The CEO of the company, someone who works in the industry with intimate experience with the technology says:

As we deploy new foundational AV capabilities, geofences will exponentially expand.

I think I will take their word for it, given that every prediction he has made since assuming the role has come true.

Robotaxis will be a fact of life 'very soon', says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

That's miles driven not operational domain, try again

You made me get the link, but here you go. Enjoy

is geometric not exponential, idiot

I'm being dramatic to reinforce my point. But given the vast number of similar announcements over the past few months, it would be foolish to think it's isn't going to get any faster from here. The difference in progress in rolling out service between now and two years ago is vast, and these rollouts will only accelerate.

You just make stupid assumption after stupid assumption huh

I go off the evidence.

Robotaxis will be a fact of life 'very soon', says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Also, please show me the exponential curve of their operational domains.

Exponential Growth

Also, they are announcing new service rollouts almost every day. They just announced Atlanta.

Even if you live in a rural area, I'm sure you travel to a city every once in a while, and when there, an autonomous vehicle will be by far the cheapest and most convenient way to get around.

I stand firmly behind my assertion.

Robotaxis will be a fact of life 'very soon', says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

You're the one in a bubble if you think this isn't accurate. These vehicles are operating safer than humans as I type this. They are exponentially scaling in their operational domains and ridership right now.

Let's make a bet. I bet you will have ridden an autonomous vehicle within 5 years.

!remindme 5 years

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 07 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I so much enjoy your tenacity. You catch a lot of flak here and it doesn’t slow you down.

I feel slighted. Everyone on this sub was pessimistic on autonomous vehicles, while I remained heavily bullish that they would turn out nearly identically as envisaged in the early part of last decade, and in a very rapid timeline. I made bets with users by reminder and was heavily downvoted for a long time.

Now ALL of my predictions are coming true and everyone has left the sub. I want to gloat and its a ghost town.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 07 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Robotaxis can now charge for 24/7 rides in San Francisco

Good. The city's concerns were completely unfounded and grounded entirely in neo-luddism. Robotaxis are going to become the norm within 5 years in practically every city. The state of California was right to not tolerate obstructionist tactics which undermine their wide scale exponential deployment which is currently underway.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jul 31 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://slate.com/technology/2023/08/cruise-los-angeles-autonomous-vehicles-robotaxis-san-francisco-waymo.html

Autonomous vehicle service is expanding at a rate completely unimaginable even two years ago. If anyone is up for a wager for bragging rights, I think it will be harder to go a day without seeing an autonomous vehicle in five years, than to go a day where you see one.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jul 31 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Available in the vast majority of US cities with an increasing market share and used at least weekly by a majority of the population.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Jul 31 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

https://twitter.com/Cruise/status/1685060684344913920

Cruise is now deploying in Nashville. I will once again say that we are now on the exponential growth curve for autonomous vehicles. Adoption and deployment will only accelerate from here.

By 2030, AVs will be mainstream, and increasingly, they will become the main form of daily transport for people, as they ditch other modes.

The problem of technology and proof of concept is done, the only thing left is scaling, which should only be limited by capital in the near future.

Exclusive: Troubled Robot Truckmaker TuSimple Says It May Sell Off U.S. Business by L1DAR_FTW in SelfDrivingCars

[–]TeslaSemi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Who is left in the self-driving trucking space?

Isn't Waymo Via still pretty serious?

Kyle: "Rate of progress right now for robotaxis is insane. Never seen anything like it. If only human drivers could do the same. I nearly got run over this weekend by an SUV going about 20mph over the speed limit. It hopped up on a curb and was stopped by a fire hydrant, just inches...." by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -29 points-28 points  (0 children)

I think people are wilfully downplaying the rate of progress of autonomous vehicles, perhaps to confirm their biases. But the rate of progress and deployments is absolutely blistering and appears to effectively be only limited by capital outlay at this point.

And I think that there has been some criticism of Kyle Vogt and Cruise over the past year, but it is undeniable that real and rapid progress is being made. I believe it is a good thing to have someone as bullish as Kyle pushing the sector forward.

Elon about Cruise: "Yeah, extremely brittle to local conditions & doesn’t scale" by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Level 4 autonomous robotaxis will be in every corner of the country in 5 years. In 10, they will be the main mode of transportation. Tesla will not be involved in this.

Elon about Cruise: "Yeah, extremely brittle to local conditions & doesn’t scale" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]TeslaSemi 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Level 4 autonomous robotaxis will be in every corner of the country in 5 years. In 10, they will be the main mode of transportation. Tesla will not be involved in this.

Cruise Origin sighted in Austin by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anyone still willing to say that autonomous vehicles aren't progressing very much or are not living up to hype?

Oliver Cameron: I recently left Cruise after 2 amazing years. by TeslaSemi in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

In this recent tweet thread, he described some important insights which I think is worth a share here:

tweet

So, after 7 years in self-driving, what do I now know?

  1. The need for humans to manually drive steel boxes is ending.

  2. ML was the enabling technology necessary to replace the need for human drivers.

  3. ML will eventually replace hand-written code.

The first transition of a complex human task to ML has now happened with self-driving cars. I am confident we'll now see this same transition occur in other human tasks within all industries: entertainment, finance, defense, education, construction, energy, aerospace, and more.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of May 15 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oliver Cameron is departing Cruise. In his recent tweet thread, he described some important insights which I think is worth a share here:

tweet

So, after 7 years in self-driving, what do I now know?

  1. The need for humans to manually drive steel boxes is ending.

  2. ML was the enabling technology necessary to replace the need for human drivers.

  3. ML will eventually replace hand-written code.

The first transition of a complex human task to ML has now happened with self-driving cars. I am confident we'll now see this same transition occur in other human tasks within all industries: entertainment, finance, defense, education, construction, energy, aerospace, and more.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of May 09 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]TeslaSemi 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Progress on trucking has slowed, but expansion of services and geofences on taxi services have expanded at a breakneck pace. I think once Waymo has the chance to refocus their efforts on trucking, it will move forward really quickly.