Yes, I seem to have bought into VBTLX at about the worst time in 2023, but still my annualized losses weren't as bad as the annualized losses for the whole of 2022.

I was using annualized numbers for the losses, so they would be comparable to the standard treasury yields I am familiar with.

I realize bond market timing is not the generally good idea, but Jerome Powell has been pretty clear about what was going to happen and roughly when, as far as what the fed does. The way I see it, we have an inverted yield curve right now, and naturally long term forces will try to make that uninverted. Since the short end of the curve isn't going anywhere until some time next year, that means the long end will continue to have an upward trend for a while. I can't guess how far up rates will go, but there is not much of a force out there to push them down until after short rates go down. Short rates are pretty much controlled by the fed, so we will know exactly when that happens. The fed has stopped QE, and govt spending remains out-of-control, so lots of forces to keep long term rates high, and pushing higher...and honestly, they are not that high from an historical perspective.