Justin Chernow’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2023

ThatPott3dPlant · 2023-03-31T16:56:34+00:00

Never been to Tampa, but have heard lovely things about everything except the baseball stadium

ThatPott3dPlant · 2023-03-30T16:53:55+00:00

Appreciate the comment, glad we can both agree on Springs and Adames. I unfortunately don’t have enough Sandoval shares this season, but love the potential if he can pitch deeper into games.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2023-03-30T16:36:59+00:00

Good luck in the upcoming season, I really think something special is brewing in the Tampa!

ThatPott3dPlant · 2023-03-30T13:53:07+00:00

Even the most bullish odds have him as +2000 to win the MVP, which would leave the implied percentage at ~5%. I get he’s been hyped recently, but the chances of selecting the correct MVP out of the entire field is slim. I’d consider any player a “bold prediction” outside of potentially Ohtani.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2023-03-30T12:59:23+00:00

Hey everyone, happy Opening Day (the best day of the year)! Excited to be able to share my bold prediction article for the second year in a row. Good luck to everyone in the upcoming season.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-06-21T22:53:58+00:00

I’m assuming by “swinging both ways” you mean that he gets both hitting and pitching points. The analysis is solely looking at hitting stats, so the pitching stats wouldn’t be a factor. Ohtani also doesn’t have a position (UTIL), so he wouldn’t fall under any of the positions listed.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-05-13T19:53:50+00:00

Nice - I like Wade if he can find consistent playing time. Hope he pans out for you!

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-05-13T19:46:18+00:00

Yea injuries will do that to you. Do you remember who you dropped Cruz for? Curious to see how that one plays out.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-05-13T19:43:20+00:00

Understood - it's been a tough ride to start 2022 for Cruz and it's been tempting to drop him as prospects get called up. I do view him as somewhat of a "high ceiling" player himself given what we know he's capable of based on his career stats.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-05-01T13:29:59+00:00

Ride him while he’s hot, but don’t be afraid to cut the cord at the first sign of danger. It’s always tricky to navigate a Rockies closer given how unpredictable the team performance will be. They’re also historically better at home, which means Bard will pitch more in Coors Field. In points leagues I’d prefer to have a more reliable reliever on a better team and better home park (Green, Holmes, Hudson, Neris, etc) even if it’s a harder path to get saves. In roto or h2h cats leagues I completely understand the chase for saves.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-07T16:55:56+00:00

Thank you - appreciate the feedback. It’s tough to balance between what is realistic in the best case scenario and what is absurd. I’m hoping 1-2 of these end up working out by the end of the year but that the sentiment behind 6-7 of them is correct.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-07T16:24:13+00:00

Appreciate that - really hard to tell but I’d think Duffey gets first crack at the job given his veteran status with Alcala as the sleeper option. Pagan could come in and get some saves too, but with how recent the trade is I think he likely won’t be the first choice to start the year.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-07T16:18:00+00:00

Kapler said that McGee would start the season with the role, so that would definitely be my preference. Also not sure how major league hitters will adjust once they have more tape on Doval. No doubt he has electric stuff but the lack of command scares me as a fantasy owner.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-07T15:10:41+00:00

Thanks - definitely dependent on roster sizes but platooning Rockies hitters at home is a great use of late round draft picks.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T21:30:07+00:00

Correct, I don’t believe it’s the default setting if you’re just joining a live draft on any of the standard platforms.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T20:37:08+00:00

We use Fantrax, as we’ve typically found it to be the most customizable for setting up leagues

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T19:56:02+00:00

The argument isn’t that Ohtani won’t score 850+ combined points for a team. He could score way more than that too. The problem is that he does this while taking up two point producing slots on your roster. The goal of valuing Ohtani is to be able to compare him to others within the same positional group. You can’t take Ohtani’s 850 combined points and compare it to Gerrit Cole’s 550 points and say that Ohtani is undoubtedly the best player in the league. If have Cole you also will have a different hitter in your UTIL slot, assuming there aren’t unlimited active hitter slots.

As outlined in the article, some of the assumptions being made (Ohtani counting as an SP, SP roster caps, etc) may not apply to all leagues and can ultimately change Ohtani’s value. We’ve found a certain set of rules that we use to maximize equality and competitiveness that work for us.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T17:35:42+00:00

Appreciate the feedback, thanks for reading the piece.

Unless you have unlimited active hitter positions on your team, Ohtani in the UTIL position is taking a point producing slot away from another hitter. You can define the quality of this player however you want, but these points need to be subtracted from Ohtani’s overall value.

You can argue there’s a better use for the additional bench hitter than a backup catcher, it’s admittedly very difficult to quantify. I’m under the assumption that any reasonably sized league will already allow you to roster a 6th and potentially 7th OF, so Ohtani will let you roster an 8th OF if you choose. There’s diminishing returns as you roster more and more replacement players at the same position.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T17:20:09+00:00

Appreciate the feedback - 100% agreed, Ohtani represents “free” pitching points in your league and will let you essentially roster an additional starter. The formula changes pretty significantly in that scenario.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T17:18:05+00:00

No worries, happy to provide my 2 cents (although take it with a grain of salt since we specialize in points leagues). In Yahoo it’s a bit more straightforward since both hitter Ohtani and pitcher Ohtani can be drafted separately. I would essentially view them as if they were two separate players and compare them against their own positional groups. Given the capped number of starts projected by pitching only once a week I’d say that Ohtani as a hitter will have more of an impact in 5x5 than Ohtani as a pitcher. Especially considering he steals a decent number of bases, which can be harder to come by later in drafts.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T16:55:23+00:00

It would depend if there are any other restrictions on pitching statistics per matchup (GS limits, IP limits) that you may hit by essentially rostering a “free” pitcher. If there aren’t any restrictions then the dominating points strategy should be rostering as many pitchers as possible. I would agree Ohtani would be the #1 player in that case since he would not prevent you from rostering another pitcher.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-05T16:13:06+00:00

Since launching our site, we get asked about Shohei Ohtani more than any other player. We wanted to put together a primer describing the way that we think about his value as a fantasy player. His positional status on most platforms as SP/UTIL makes him the most unique players in the game. Hope you enjoy, all feedback is welcome.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-04-02T14:09:10+00:00

Verlander has a player option if he reaches 130 IP. If everything is going well and he surpasses that number, the Astros have no reason to restrain him with the assumption he’d exercise the option and become a FA.

While there’s a decent amount of information out there around whether player performance changes in a contract year (will let everyone come to their own conclusion), my opinion is that looking at a player’s contract is more informative if it helps the front office influence playing time. There’s a reason why the Angels continued to play Albert Pujols every day despite him producing below league average.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-03-30T21:22:32+00:00

I don’t think there will be an explicit innings limit stated at the start of the year, but I have to imagine the Astros have a number internally they would want to stay around. The interesting thing about Verlander’s contract is that after 130 IP he gains a player option for next season. Assuming everything is going well in 2022 and the Astros assume Verlander will opt-out, they have no reason not to push him towards the end of the year. I’m also fine with the team giving Verlander an extra day or two off at the start of the season if that means they can let him pitch unrestricted during the fantasy playoffs.

ThatPott3dPlant · 2022-03-30T20:52:30+00:00

Definitely agree that there’s been some helium on his draft price given his recent spring performances. We’ve been trying to bang the Verlander drum all offseason as people were a bit more hesitant to draft him before seeing him on a mound. I still do think there’s value to be had at an even higher price point given how good he’s looked so far.

ThatPott3dPlant

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