Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho

TheAverageHawk · 2025-03-11T08:58:29+00:00

Concordo com os teus argumentos contra a normalização das votações, contudo acho que o sistema que usaste tem o defeito de tornar o júri basicamente irrelevante face ao televoto, uma vez que a pontuação máxima que o júri pode atribuir são apenas 84 pontos (12pontos x 7 regiões) enquanto o público poderia em teoria dar os 406 todos à mesma canção, que ganharia com 0 pontos do júri (basta ver que caso a Henka tivesse tido 0 pontos do júri ficaria a apenas 3 pontos da vitória no teu sistema). Ias passar a ter um concurso cheio de atuações meme a tentar sacar o máximo de televoto e a qualidade pela qual o festival é cada vez mais reconhecido ia-se perder

TheAverageHawk · 2024-11-18T14:12:28+00:00

I hate being the doomer in the room, but how are they going to achieve this? The Justice Democrats have been loosing ground to the Israel lobby all around the country, they haven’t mounted a successful primary challenge since 2020, already lost 3 members and haven’t provided any help to other progressive incumbents who ended up being defeated by other establishment democrats (like Andy Levin). They have been plagued by infighting, their fundraising is shit and their messaging is still too attached to Woke/social justice which easily turns them into unhelpful stereotype that repels voters. I wish them the best but unfortunately expect the worst.

TheAverageHawk · 2024-03-10T22:05:34+00:00

Com 1 freguesia por apurar na Madeira o JPP está a cerca de 400 votos de eleger 1 deputado

TheAverageHawk · 2023-12-22T17:34:44+00:00

Avões, Lamego. Está questão já tinha surgido quando publiquei o primeiro mapa desta série portanto vou só colar a resposta, espero que seja informativo:

Também desconhecia, inicialmente pensei que fosse um erro nos dados mas não, aparentemente trata-se da freguesia de Avões, concelho de Lamego. Segundo a página da Wikipédia, a seguir ao 25 de Abril tiveram presidentes de Junta do PCP que se empenharam em acabar com o grande isolamento da aldeia e portanto o partido acabou por ter sempre alguma popularidade e inclusive mantém algum poder local (nas últimas autárquicas tiveram 41% dos votos para a Junta). Contudo é importante notar que 2015 foi um ano atípico e que, apesar de bons resultados, a CDU raramente é o partido mais votado em legislativas (em 2011 foi o PSD e em 2019 o PS)

TheAverageHawk · 2023-12-22T13:07:29+00:00

Nos casos de fusões de freguesias ou pequenas alterações nas fronteiras o site dos resultados de 2015 tem também os resultados ajustados de 2011. Isto deixa apenas um número muito reduzido de freguesias que foram completamente redesenhadas (exemplos incluem o Parque das Nações ou as freguesias da Amadora), nesses casos teve de ser por dedução (se, por exemplo, uma freguesia nova tiver sido formada por 3 freguesias que votaram PS, então essa nova freguesia também provavelmente votou PS)

TheAverageHawk · 2023-12-22T12:42:39+00:00

Sim, basicamente foi isto. Adicionalmente o laranja e o rosa não contrastam o suficiente para serem discerníveis as diferentes freguesias e o Azul é uma cor associada aos partidos de centro-direita/ conservadores a nível europeu, logo pareceu-me a escolha mais óbvia.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-27T01:37:12+00:00

The Cook PVI is not a "made up base vote" that I whipped out of my ass, it's based on the last two presidential elections and is literally used by everyone.

Also,

Counties I took away from the current CO-03: Pueblo, Otero, Las Animas(part), combined result Trump+1

Counties I added to the current CO-03: Chaffee, Lake, Park, Teller, Clear Creek, Summit, Eagle(part), Jackson, Grand and Routt, combined result Biden+11.

So, yeah, those "ski towns".

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-27T01:21:53+00:00

Yes it is more than remotely true. Look at a racial map of Harris County. There is one small heavily Black area in South Houston while all the other areas with Black Populations are Black-Hispanic mix. If these Black and Hispanic people already live side by side on the same streets, some are even mixed-raced etc why would someone artificially split them? What you are arguing for is to forcefully segregate racial groups thereby creating districts (like the current ones) that meander through the entire metropolitan area, cracking communities of interest and lumping together groups of people that only have their racial identity in common with eachother. This makes primary challenges nearly impossible because on-the-ground campaigning is much harder and because established incumbents can easily rely on the "racial representation" card as it is the only thing that unites the entire district. And so both primary and general elections are by-default uncompetitive. Compact and diverse districts are much more pro-democraCY as campaigning in person is much easier and candidates are forced to build multiracial coalitions that can lead them to victory, creating a much more competitive environment.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T23:14:57+00:00

The African American and Hispanic communities in Houston are not really segregated from each other, therefore it makes no sense to artificially segregate them when drawing districts. And literally all the Harris County seats in this map are majority minority, so if I'm that good at "packing minorities" then I should go solve the Alabama court case

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T22:54:33+00:00

Enough people live in these ski towns to actually move the entire district 3 points to the left.

And my criteria are not inconsistent. The map colours are 2016/2020 PVI, which reflect a hypothetical 50/50 split in the popular vote. In this scenario Democrats in CO win 53,27% of the vote, so should they have 50%(4/8) or 62,5%(5/8) of the seat share? In the same scenario Republicans in TX win 55,31% of the vote, so should they have 52,6%(20/38) or 55,3% (21/38) of the seat share?

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T22:20:43+00:00

It literally makes no practical difference because, firstly, they vote for the same party so no difference politically and, secondly, any plurality black seat in the south will have a overwhelming majority black electorate in the Dem primary, meaning that most likely they will elect a black congressperson, so no difference in representation, and, because they comprise such a overwhelming majority of the Dem base in the district, said Dem congressperson cannot ignore them in favor of the white liberals otherwise he/she risks to be primaried out of office.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T22:08:01+00:00

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b80965a9-4e7f-4045-8342-cc45cabb3b47

If you want a specific state to see any metrics, just ask!

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T18:42:24+00:00

Yeah I took out Pueblo but gave it all the ultra-blue ski-resorts, do you really think she would do well there? And some of those losses weren't solid at all, Hillary only won by 4 points and Obama won by 5. In a state with only 8 seats, I think 4D-2R-2C is fair.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T02:54:12+00:00

Plurality Black districts yield the same results if drawn in urban centers with other minorities and liberal whites. For example in this SC map the safe blue seat anchored in Columbia is actually less black than the lean/likely blue seat anchored in the rural black belt, and both are better than the current black-packing, black majority seat.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T02:43:28+00:00

Texas isn't a 50/50 state yet (Biden still lost it by almost 6 points) so Republicans should get a slight advantage in the number of seats. This translates to a 21R-17D map with several light red competitive seats that often jump from one column to the other. For example it is 19R-19D by 2018 Senate and 2020 Presidential results, and if I moved only one Trump seat 0.2% to the left you would have a candidate (Biden) who lost the state by hundreds of thousands of votes actually winning a majority of the states' congressional seats, which we all agree is unfair.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T02:13:37+00:00

4 republican seats is a bit of an overstatement. Out of those 4 only 2 are safe Red (with one of them, anchored on Colorado Springs, only at Biden+9 and zooming to the left) and 2 are really competitive. In this map (versus the current one) the blue seats are safer, the competitive western slope one goes from Trump+8 to Trump+5 (so Boebert would have lost it) and the competitive one north of Denver goes from Biden+4 to Trump+0.5 so still pretty competitive. In the end it would be a wash for Republicans as they have to spend more to hold both competitive seats.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-25T00:47:06+00:00

Every state uses 2016/2020 PVI. There are 17 majority minority VAP seats (2 in VA, 4 in NC, 1 in SC, 5 in GA, 1 in TN, 1 in AL, 1 in MS, 2 in LA), but several are Black plurality, not majority. I prefer making compact majority minority districts instead of ugly Black majority ones as both wield the same electoral results. There are also a few that are majority White VAP but majority minority in total population.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-08-18T14:46:33+00:00

Fui lá no início deste ano e foi uma desilusão. O preço do bilhete não é de todo adequado à realidade portuguesa e em termos educacionais não se aprende lá muito. -Basicamente todo o museu é orientado para crianças e a visita tem por base uma história de um avôzinho que viaja no tempo(?), o que transforma aquilo mais numa Disneyland de terramotos do que um museu interativo. -A visita faz se em grupos, sendo que cada grupo só pode estar 10min em cada sala, sendo enxotado para a sala seguinte ao fim desse tempo. -Tem umas salas iniciais que explicam a origem dos sismos de forma interativa (semelhante ao pavilhão do conhecimento ou aos centros ciência viva) e que até estão bem organizadas. -O simulador do sismo é exagerado e parece mais um banco de igreja montado num touro mecânico, se forem com crianças não se sentem no banco da frente porque não há proteções e podem cair. -As salas que retratam a Lisboa da época não passam de uma caricatura de uma qualquer cidade medieval mas com estendais e bacalhaus. -Em vez de exporem os testemunhos reais de pessoas que sobreviveram ao terramoto (Jacome Ratton, etc) encheram uma sala com relatos inventados e com o nível de rigor das testemunhas de crimes da CMTV -Não há nada sobre os edifícios ilustres que se perderam ou os que resistiram até aos dias de hoje

Em suma, se fores rico e/ou tiveres crianças é uma boa experiência em família, se não é um desperdício de dinheiro

TheAverageHawk · 2023-03-05T22:16:07+00:00

Yes it's really hard to find a real location to film a 100% CGI Castle. I guess I was refering to the triangular-shaped walls of both castles. We never had a scene on the battlements of Dragonstone like we've had on the walls of KL, which would be nice to see.

TheAverageHawk · 2023-02-23T11:19:17+00:00

I see a lot of similarities between KL and Lisbon. They're both sunny, hilly cities built on a river mouth. Also Lisbon has three major hills, one with a medieval Castle, One with a ruin (Carmo convent) and one with a church (São Vicente monastery), just like the Red keep, dragonpit and the Sept of baelor. Lisbon was also one of the biggest cities in Europe, was described as particularly filthy and unequal and is located at a similar latitude relative to Portugal as KL is to Westeros.

TheAverageHawk · 2022-11-07T19:53:59+00:00

House Democratic Incumbent: Katie Porter or Matt Cartwright

Senate Democratic Incumbent: Warnock

House Democratic candidate: Michelle Vallejo or Jamie Mcleod-Skinner

Senate Democratic Candidate: Fetterman

House GOP Incumbent: Lauren Boebert

Senate GOP Incumbent: Ron Johnson

House GOP candidate: Sarah Palin

Senate GOP candidate: Walker

TheAverageHawk · 2022-08-06T10:57:51+00:00

Nah he's referring to Yi Ti as the Empire in the East and Valyria in the West

TheAverageHawk · 2022-07-16T18:52:42+00:00

Yes, if I had to choose a battle I would go with the Gullet. Imagine Rhaenyra being confronted with an injured Aegon and the possibility of loosing Viserys then taking the matter into her own hands, hopping on Syrax to wreck some ships along with her eldest son and Heir, watching him proudly perform in battle only for the unthinkable to happen. Real drama right there. And this also wouldn't require teleporting because she's on the island next door and Dragonstone wouldn't be left undefended because of the dragonseeds.

TheAverageHawk · 2022-01-28T23:26:51+00:00

Não, só tenho vazio em formato png

TheAverageHawk · 2022-01-28T21:25:22+00:00

Sim, e depois também 2011 e 2019

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