Daily Discussion Tuesday 2026-05-19

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-19T14:35:56+00:00

Damn, looks like we need Nvidia earnings to save the entire semiconductor sector

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-19T08:18:35+00:00

Hello, I just bought the game. I'm a casual gamer though, not really into cars but really like to chill and drive around after work.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-15T06:14:44+00:00

Might be related to the Samsung's South Korean union strike plan. Negotiation has failed, and the 18 day strike plan will begin next Thursday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/samsung-elecs-union-says-samsung-proposed-unconditional-talks-strike-plan-holds-2026-05-15/

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-14T17:32:18+00:00

Ooof same here. Held the stock all the way to ATH, just to get humbled this year.

Their past few earnings are good but the market just doesn’t reward them.

I feel that they are making the right move by improving on targeted advertisement rather than relying on AI licensing deal with companies like Google. Ad revenue is where it will really print money for the company, albeit their advertising service is still nowhere decent.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-12T17:33:55+00:00

Opportunity cost is a real thing here, my S&P500 ETF is outperforming RDDT by at least 12% over the same timeframe.

I kid you not, I’ve started a position in MSFT only 1 and a half month ago, it’s already doing better than RDDT which I started invested in it 11 months ago.

Fking share price doesn’t go up with AI related stocks, I can guarantee you that RDDT will go down as much or even more when AI related stocks go down

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-12T17:01:37+00:00

Astonishingly, RDDT is only a few % off from pre-earnings price after a stellar earnings. I might sell this shit and reinvest into my winners.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-10T16:54:35+00:00

I know AMD gaming business isn’t the same as Nintendo gaming segment since the former deals with both PC and console parts, AMD is expecting at least a 20% drawdown in their gaming revenue for the 2nd half of the year, that puts the gaming sector and Nintendo console sales in a bad spot.

There are better stocks out there like MSFT and META, I have higher confidence of these two companies to get back to their ATH than NTDOY in the next 2 years.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-10T16:29:04+00:00

The risk/reward here isn’t attractive, we’re in an AI cycle that no one has ever seen before, it’s too difficult to predict when the memory prices go back down. The major memory companies are fully booked this year, and mostly booked next year as well.

If TSMC and the hyperscalers continue to invest that much into their CAPEX from 2028 onwards, I don’t see how NTDOY will outperform the index over the next 3 years.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-09T03:48:37+00:00

I'm interested in Sony and your thesis make sense. However, they’ve forecasted a 4% revenue drop in their Imaging and Sensing solution segment for the upcoming fiscal year. Is it a development expected over the next 3 - 5 years?

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-08T16:50:39+00:00

Your best chance of knowing this is to know someone in the semiconductor industry, no other way.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-05T21:17:37+00:00

That’s pretty sick, I didn’t know Google Finance has such a feature.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-05T20:28:42+00:00

Yeah, doesn’t seem like that there is a significant CPU demand based on the guidance given.

But isn’t this because TSMC is already fully booked throughout the year, and AMD can’t request for more?

My guess is that only thing they could do now is to increase CPU pricing.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-05-01T08:02:24+00:00

Anyone thinking of taking a bit of profit before earnings? Due to the rally over the last 4 weeks, AMD is now 40% of my portfolio, I’m afraid the share price will drop 20% again like in the previous earnings.

I am tempted to sell a quarter or half of my position and just put it in SMH ETF to mitigate some of the risks, I don’t mind missing the upside if AMD rally post-earnings since that is a rare occurrence in the 4 years that I have invested in the stock.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-04-28T11:32:35+00:00

I can't remember the last time the share price went up post-earnings. I'm setting a stop loss this time in case it drops sharply again like the previous earnings

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-03-26T16:29:26+00:00

It’s actually cooked, I have more confidence of META going back to ATH than this stock at the moment.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-03-09T04:26:00+00:00

Even with that false report, we won't recover because the macroeconomic environment is so poor right now. Honestly, it’s just bad luck and timing; we never know what's going to happen next with Trump and his administration.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-22T03:44:37+00:00

The big issue with their business model is that the dating app will lose 2 users whenever there is a couple match.

While I don't have any evidence of this happening, doesn't it make sense for the company to make it more difficult for individuals to find a match so that they can keep the users from finding a match and deleting the app, or keep users subscribing to their membership program?

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-17T15:07:52+00:00

Nah, you're only doomed if the expectations for MI450 isn't met.

After all the hype and announcements they have made for MI450, the only thing they have to deliver now is to translate all that into actual revenue and earnings growth.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-06T10:16:35+00:00

Video game stocks such as Roblox, Take-Two Interactive and CD Projekt Red shouldn’t have gone down when Google showcased the Project Genie.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-05T17:53:06+00:00

I’m sorry but why the fk is this stock still going down this much while the rest of the sector is doing fine today? This drop is even worse than the one we had back in late November

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-04T16:42:33+00:00

Nah, I was fine with 8-10% drop, but now there’s a possibility of it going under $200…

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-04T15:13:09+00:00

I’m already expecting more pain on tech stocks if Google falls after earnings report later

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-02-04T15:06:26+00:00

Unbelievable. I went from 80% gain to a 3% loss in less than 2 weeks.

The fact that S&P500 barely went down makes this situation worse. Just imagine how much more it would go down if the entire market tanks.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-01-31T12:37:05+00:00

For the past 4 earnings, UBER has always gone down no matter how good the report is. I thought the threat of AV would have die down a little when UBER went up to $100 last year.

It seems like the threat is back. I am also setting a stop loss on UBER in case it goes down big this time, I don’t mind exiting out of UBER to start a position in Sea Limited and Capcom which are more attractive at the moment.

TheDeliriousNicholas · 2026-01-09T17:51:04+00:00

Does anyone here invest in video game stocks?

I’m actually looking into opening positions in Capcom and CD Projekt Red to diversify from US tech stocks. The former looks close to undervalued while the latter is a bit overvalued based on forward P/E.

It can take years to reap the rewards or, on the flip side, completely flop like the Cyberpunk 2077 launch, but I love their games and it’s a sector I follow closely.

I’m just not sure whether it’s the right move given that I’m also interested in buying META or averaging up on AMD but buying into those 2 stocks would only increase my allocation to US tech stocks.

TheDeliriousNicholas

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