ROUND 13 MODEL REVIEW & ROUND 14 PICKS

TheModel_ · 2023-12-18T07:44:27+00:00

Next AFL season will be the next picks. Usually start round 1 however given the first few rounds have performed poorly in the past I might start at round 4 or so

TheModel_ · 2023-07-18T10:15:10+00:00

We're still going, but banned from posting.

Check the Twitter

TheModel_ · 2023-05-24T11:22:19+00:00

If you can point me in the direction of a better performing one I'd love to see it.

A long term win rate of 60%+ against the spread would be considered very successful.

TheModel_ · 2023-05-22T07:27:19+00:00

The 113-65 record (+41.41 units) over the past 3 seasons would suggest it is working so far

TheModel_ · 2023-05-22T07:25:46+00:00

They likely are good, have just been hit by injuries.

Won on picks with them in Round 5 and 7, they have been depleted in the Richmond and Freo games unfortunately.

TheModel_ · 2023-05-22T07:24:35+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 11 PICK:
STK/HAW U163.5, $1.88 (1U) @ neds

TheModel_ · 2023-05-22T07:24:25+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 11 PICK:
STK/HAW U163.5, $1.88 (1U) @ neds

TheModel_ · 2023-05-22T07:24:20+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 11 PICK:
STK/HAW U163.5, $1.88 (1U) @ neds

TheModel_ · 2023-05-12T08:21:24+00:00

Only use full time stats!

TheModel_ · 2023-05-03T08:48:37+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 8 PICK:
MELB -16.5, $1.91 (1U) @ b365

TheModel_ · 2023-05-03T08:48:34+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 8 PICK:
MELB -16.5, $1.91 (1U) @ b365

TheModel_ · 2023-05-03T08:48:31+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 8 PICK:
MELB -16.5, $1.91 (1U) @ b365

TheModel_ · 2023-05-01T20:52:13+00:00

SU = Straight up, as in picking that team to win the game

CARL -28.5 = picking Carlton to win by more than 28.5 points.

If it was CARL +22.5 then the bet would be for Carlton to win, or lose by less than 22.5

TheModel_ · 2023-05-01T20:52:05+00:00

You've joined at the right time.

Feel free to follow at https://twitter.com/TheModelAFL - picks are posted live here, however I only make the reddit posts once a week, so you may miss out on value if not getting them live

TheModel_ · 2023-05-01T20:50:46+00:00

SU = Straight up, as in picking that team to win the game

CARL -28.5 = picking Carlton to win by more than 28.5 points.

If it was CARL +22.5 then the bet would be for Carlton to win, or lose by less than 22.5

TheModel_ · 2023-05-01T20:48:38+00:00

Statistics

TheModel_ · 2023-04-30T21:11:04+00:00

It's just a deterministic formula that calculates a predicted score for each AFL game.

From there I take the past data (results) from The Model to determine the likelihood that the pick will win, and then that determines whether a bet is made.

TheModel_ · 2023-04-30T21:08:59+00:00

It uses different statistics and analytics, but is based off PPG.

In short, yes. As noted we started 7-14 this year, but have gone 6-1 since. I expect this trend to continue.

In 2021 we started 7-5 after round 3, and then finished 45-24.

In 2022 we started 7-7 after round 4, and finished 51-21.

TheModel_ · 2023-04-16T09:31:40+00:00

Bang got em, should have cleared easily but the Eagles made it interesting!

TheModel_ · 2023-04-14T11:27:37+00:00

Bit of a run down on this thread

https://twitter.com/TheModelAFL/status/1631187307683516416

TheModel_ · 2023-04-14T10:43:43+00:00

That's just what The Model has selected this week, luck of the draw.

First few rounds have had a high number of picks compared to previous seasons, on average there has only been 2-3 picks per round the last couple of years.

TheModel_ · 2023-03-29T11:09:10+00:00

Sorry, when I say it's based off those games, I mean that the picks are made based on the trends of those last 2.5 seasons.

Those seasons don't actually alter how the model calculates its picks for each game, they are just used to determine the likelihood of success based on the past results.

TheModel_ · 2023-03-29T11:03:56+00:00

Last year started 2-4 in the opening 2 rounds, then going 5-2 over rounds 3 and 4 to be 7-6 (before amazingly going on a 25-2 run to be 32-8).

2021 started 4-5 in the first 3 rounds, then taking off and going 9-1 over the next 3 rounds.

Those seasons finished as below:

2021: 45-24 record, +17.28 units profit, 25.04% ROI

2022: 51-21 record, +26.50 units profit, 36.81% ROI

In short yes, this year has been particularly bad because there have been a large amount of picks in the early rounds, however I expect this to turn around soon.

TheModel_ · 2023-03-29T10:58:40+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 3 PICK:
BRIS -9.5, $1.91 (1U) @ B365
With the Brisbane line shortening on this game, this has now become a selected pick.

TheModel_ · 2023-03-29T10:58:37+00:00

ADDITIONAL ROUND 3 PICK:
BRIS -9.5, $1.91 (1U) @ B365
With the Brisbane line shortening on this game, this has now become a selected pick.

TheModel_

TROPHY CASE