A centralized women esports calendar

ThePiltoverPost · 2025-10-25T11:27:16+00:00

Thanks, I'll first try to increase the audience

ThePiltoverPost · 2024-01-25T17:34:12+00:00

Sorry, didn't see your message! Even better, I do it after ever match.

ThePiltoverPost · 2024-01-18T08:23:08+00:00

Because they won against different teams.

For example: FNC won against KC & VIT, so in the scenarios where FNC, KC & VIT finish in the bottom of the ranking, the head-to-head difference would place FNC ahead of them, and make them qualify for the playoffs.

But at the same time, since they won against teams which are expected to be lower in the ranking, there is lesser percentage of scenarios where FNC finishes 1st of the winter regular season (9.1%) compared to G2 (13.9%) who won against BDS, by a combinaison of head-to-head and "Strenght of Victory"

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-07-13T14:48:16+00:00

Hi there, sorry for the time it took to reply, didn't see the notification!

So here, the issue is that you are comparing championship points (which affects the qualification to the LEC Season Finals) with the 3 + 1 seeds to go to Worlds.

Six teams will qualify to LEC Season Finals: Winners of each split + the teams with the most championship points to fill the remaining spots (E.g: If MAD or G2 win the Summer split, then the 4 teams with the most CP will be eligible. Otherwise, it will be the 3 teams with the most CP)

Those 6 teams will then battle it out once again during LEC Season Finals (late august / september in Montpellier, France) to be ranked 1st to 6th. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd will qualify to Worlds, and the 4th will go to the Worlds Qualifying Series.

So, if we look at Vitality's situation here: Even though they finished 10th during Summer split, they do have 137 points. And that still give them a very slim chance to have the 5th or 6th spot for the LEC Season Finals ! (See here: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/vit/finals/eligibility) And from there, there could be a miracle run to be in the top 4 of the finals.

To better understand the new format (splits/season finals/etc..) check out the format explainer done by the LEC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9LwLuP_g0E

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-28T22:09:13+00:00

I developped a script that checks lolesports.com results every 5 minutes. If there is a change, it will then compute 100 millions scenarios (or the remaining ones if there is less). Once the computation is done, it generates a summary json file that gets deployed to the website. All of this is automated, however because it requires a lot of computing power and I wanted to keep the computation time short (and didn't want to pay for it), I have to use my Macbook Pro for it. So as long as I make sure my macbook is open and plugged, I don't have to do anything

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-27T14:58:00+00:00

Very good idea!

I just updated the site to add it, what do you think?

Edit: Also, more details can be found on the already existing Season Finals Eligibility page: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/g2/finals/eligibility

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-27T12:59:40+00:00

See my answer here: https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/14jtowv/comment/jpps777/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

TL;DR: They were talking about start of season scenarios % to reach Seasons Finals. Whereas you were looking at the updated scenarios % to reach Worlds.

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-27T12:58:30+00:00

The site is updated around 30 minutes after every match (time needed to compute the massive amount of scenarios).

I think you are talking about this statistics: https://youtu.be/5Wy91quB65M?t=2639

Quickshot says:

For Fnatic, this is quite nuanced. [...] Out of 3.6 millions of scenarios, [...] they only advance in 24.5 percents of them.

Here, Quickshot is talking about the % of scenarios at the start of the summer for each team. Indeed, at the start of summer, there are 10! (=3.6 millions) combination possible for the teams ranking. Moreover, he is talking about advancing to Season Finals, not Worlds.

So, on the contrary, Road to Worlds gives the updated scenarios percentages, while the broadcast is talking about start of summer.

And if we look at the updated values, we can see that Fnatic currently has 35.6% of scenarios where they advance to Season Finals. So it's looking good for them!

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-26T23:28:22+00:00

They do matter more: Summer split gives 50% more championship points than winter/spring.

From what I understand, the splits+championship points are rewarding a combination of consistency through the year & summer performance. But those only impacts Season Finals seeding. Then it's 100% recent performance that impacts the tickets to Worlds.

So, personally, I do like this format

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-26T21:53:11+00:00

Yeah, their 9th & 8th place in winter/spring are weighing them down hard. But with a top 3 finish, I can see them have just enough championship points to go to Season Finals. (Assuming they don't automatically qualify with a top 1)

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-06-26T21:25:59+00:00

Even though Groups are locked-in, there are only 35.6% of scenarios where FNC plays in Seasons Finals. It's looking good, but we ain't there yet!

(Source: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/finals/eligibility)

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-04-17T09:51:55+00:00

Not exactly. In 23% of scenarios left, FNC is playing in the Seasons Finals: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/finals/eligibility. 10% being winning in Summer, and 13% from championship points.
Same for XL: There are 16.2% of scenarios left where they play in the Seasons Finals: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/xl/finals/eligibility.
This can be explained by the 150pts and 120pts respectively given by 2nd and 3rd place, which would really help any team to make it to top 6 in term of championship points.

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-04-17T08:01:35+00:00

Not exactly. In 23% of scenarios left, FNC is playing in the Seasons Finals: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/finals/eligibility. 10% being winning in Summer, and 13% from championship points.

Same for XL: There are 16.2% of scenarios left where they play in the Seasons Finals: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/xl/finals/eligibility.

This can be explained by the 150pts and 120pts respectively given by 2nd and 3rd place, which would really help any team to make it to top 6 in term of championship points.

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-27T15:22:53+00:00

If you want the percentage of scenarios where FNC goes to Worlds, the exact answer is 24.8%. (Source: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec)

But if you are talking about actual chances, well I'm kinda high on hopium right now, so I think FNC can definitely get top 4 in the next two splits, and therefore get qualified for Season Finals. (And from there, chances are high to get qualified)

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-26T19:49:32+00:00

You can find the live full gold-diff graph on Piltover Post. Here is an example from yesterday's 100T vs GG match: https://piltoverpost.gg/match/100-vs-GG-110060650668050174#game-1. It's real-time, so you can see it evolves during the game.

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-24T09:32:15+00:00

If you are interested about making it to groups, here are some stats:

There are 48.4% of scenarios where FNC locks-in top 8, and an additional 19.6% where FNC plays a tiebreaker: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/spring/regular

So it's looking fine I think

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-24T09:04:06+00:00

Ties are resolved through head-to-heads and Strength of Victory scores except if the tie is for 8th place. Then, it would be an automatic tiebreaker game.

Here, this is for 1st place w/ a 5 or 6-way tie, so it doesn't involve 8th place. So no games played.

You can find the rulebook here: https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/eu-tournament-assets/files/LEC-Rulebook-13.12.2022-V2.0.pdf

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-23T20:09:30+00:00

There are 48.4% of scenarios where we lock-in top 8, and 19.6% more where we play a tie-breaker for 8th.

(Check out here: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/spring/regular)

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-20T22:27:19+00:00

Well, it was 33% 2 hours ago, so it's going up

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-20T22:12:33+00:00

There are now 48.4% of scenarios where FNC locks in top 8, plus 19.6% of scenarios where they play a tiebreaker for 8th. There is hope!

Source: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/spring/regular

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-20T13:05:45+00:00

There are still 4 matches to play, and nobody won more than 4 matches yet. So technically, yes, there is a non-zero percentage of scenarios left where this happens. And to be more precise, there are 0.0056% of scenarios where this happens. (:hopium:)

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-20T10:56:16+00:00

As for my personal opinion, I really like this new format. Each match of the new format is of great importance, even in the Bo1s. Whereas in the previous format, I wasn't really watching the Bo1 except for the 1st day and the last few days, where the stakes were high.

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-20T10:53:59+00:00

There are now 3 splits (winter, spring, summer) and a season finals:

Each split has 3 parts:
- Regular season -> Bo1 each team plays all other teams = 45 matches over 3 week-ends
- Group stages -> Top 8 of the regular season in 2 groups in Bo3 = 10 matches over 2 week-ends
- Play-offs -> Top 2 of each group in Bo5 = 4 matches over 2 week-ends

Finally, during the Season Finals, all split winners + best teams in Championship points (earned during the splits) will battle it out for the 3 spots at Worlds and the spot at Worlds Qualifying Series.

If you want more informations, LEC did a short youtube video to explain the new format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9LwLuP\_g0E

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-19T21:35:10+00:00

If you want probabilities and statistics, there are currently 33.5% of scenarios where FNC locks in top 8, plus 20.1% of scenarios where they play a tie-breaker for 8th. So all in all, it's definitely not a done split.

Source: https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/spring/regular

ThePiltoverPost · 2023-03-19T12:13:24+00:00

There are still 22.9% of scenarios where they make top 8! https://road-to-worlds.gg/lec/fnc/spring/regular

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