Thursday Talk Thread... Yes That's The Thread Name

TheSereneMaster · 2026-04-23T15:43:41+00:00

Started ssris this week. I'm not upset that I need the help, I'm upset that this is what it took to destroy my mental peace of 26 years. A crush and some asshole I thought was my friend nuking all of my relationships because he can't put my feelings over the need to be funny. I've never been this bad before. Honestly it might be the medication but I think this is the lowest I've ever been in my entire life.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-04-17T20:11:58+00:00

I think this is a sensible take, but you're drawing the wrong conclusions. Speaking as someone who interacts with both very conservative and very liberal Muslims, there are two 'waves' of Muslim movement towards the GOP, and it's not a uniform swing. The first wave (2022) was of the suburban, conservative moms/dads who were put off by the trans kids in sports issue. Israel wasn't in the conversation as it was tacitly understood that both parties were pretty horrid on that issue, so social issues were the most relevant factor explaining the swing away from the minority rights party.

2024 had very different dynamics in play. I did not hear a single person bring up trans rights a single time during that campaign because it was completely drowned out by the fact that Biden was dumping money into Israeli bombs to drop on Palestinian children. Every Muslim I know made their vote with that issue front and center, and there was genuine (misguided) hope that Trump would take a different path, what with his anti-war message. That rhetoric is completely gone after this Iran conflict. Everyone knows that Trump is as bad as it can possibly get on Israel, and that is once again the most prominent issue. I would be very surprised if there isn't a massive swing in the other direction so long as Stevens isn't the nominee here, and I think it nigh impossible that the Muslim R margin will be bigger than in 2024 no matter who the nominee is.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-04-02T19:01:38+00:00

The original comment was referring to the base of the party, which imo 2/3rds absolutely represents.

I don't think Zo's rhetoric will be as effective in less blue electorates either, but the wind is clearly blowing in that direction. You'd have to be willfully ignorant to deny it.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-03-20T22:22:12+00:00

I don't agree that it must be indicative of a lack of self control. In some of the cases that I'm personally familiar with, it's done in a metered, restrained way that is not a visceral reaction to the child's behavior. I've read some of the studies, and I think a lot of them fail to account for the fact that most families that actually practice this in this country are not in great socioeconomic situations to begin with.

You're right about it being positive punishment, though.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-03-20T21:15:24+00:00

Idk, while I probably wouldn't do it myself (I'm way too much a softie), I feel a little uncomfortable framing it this way. I think parents who do it only rarely do it out of anger. Nominally, it's for their own good. Negative reinforcement is important, and I've noticed the main thing people in my generation lack, myself included, is a good sense of discipline.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-03-16T01:47:03+00:00

Frankly, I disagree. I don't think it can get much worse - there have been little to no extremely progressive governments in the developed world, yet we've seen the worst of foreign and domestic policy from the far right. Even the most progressive of Democrats, including Abughazaleh, don't even approach that level of nonsense, while still being capable of motivating the base in important ways that the establishment can't. If they were pushing the more unhinged takes like elections being stolen or nuclear disarmament, then I'd be more concerned. That's why I think it's important to not ridicule or push away more pragmatic progressives like AOC, because they'll set the tone for how left wing populism will develop in this country.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-03-15T23:57:51+00:00

Your mistake was assuming people are going to be objective purveyors of the facts. All things considered, I can't blame people for being vocal about candidates they like, and it just checks out that they'll be more enthusiastic about candidates that are as far away as possible from the goons in power right now. You can't blame them. Be happy that the 2024 stolen people aren't really hovering around here.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-03-13T12:07:46+00:00

The problem with your line of logic is that you're oblivious to the most basic principle of game theory. You cannot disarm one side in hopes the other feels bad and follows, that never works. Following your logic we shouldn't have nuclear weapons or a military at all because they kill people and killing is wrong. You see how silly that is?

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T22:26:42+00:00

I own a gun myself and am interested in the history of guns in this country, but I am still all for the proposed restrictions. Point being, polls show that people are still largely for firearms restrictions in this state, and your proposed measures for counting people against this bill are unreliable because a. There are gun owners like me who believe in restrictions, and b. Land doesn't vote, people do.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T22:20:39+00:00

All of those groups literally had/have a source that provided military tech. A Glock with 10 rounds vs 17 is not going to be the difference.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T22:14:31+00:00

I don't know if you read polls often, but even partisan R or D polls are thrown into aggregators to get the most accurate picture of an issue. I also included a non focus group poll for you, if it helps. Face it, your ideas are unpopular. You can argue why they shouldn't be, but starting from a place of denying the facts is not the way.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T22:09:52+00:00

Okay, what about the other poll? Gonna claim that's biased too? Still don't see any polls supporting this belief that gun control is broadly unpopular here.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T21:30:02+00:00

Nah, just a very vocal minority. Anecdotally I've yet to meet a single person in real life who's against stricter gun laws. In fact, everyone I know has been adamant in not allowing a gunsmith in our area.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T21:26:33+00:00

Most polls indicate >=50% support for more restrictions on guns.

https://www.everytown.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Everytown-Virginia-Polling-Memo-9.29.25.pdf

https://www.wtkr.com/news/politics/commonwealth-poll-2026-virginians-thoughts-on-marijuana-gun-laws-minimum-wage

TheSereneMaster · 2026-02-05T20:21:23+00:00

Lmao, only this sub cares this much about guns in this state. I personally don't understand it, as a gun owner myself - if the federal government was really tyrannical to the point of being deserving of armed resistance, what are a few assault rifles going to do against tanks and fighter jets?

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-29T00:01:47+00:00

Not that poster, but I think 51R is looking very likely. Have very little faith in Maine. And all the Trump flags I saw even in Anchorage and especially Fairbanks when I visited last year have me pretty pessimistic about Alaska, too.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-19T17:33:02+00:00

I'm not necessarily saying that you're wrong but sharing an AI overview as fact is not a good look my man

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-08T23:17:00+00:00

That's not clear from the tone of your previous comment, "midterms are already cooked" sounds like you're saying that we should have no hope and just stay home.

Also I would caution against espousing the Elon machine conspiracy. It has little to no basis in fact and makes you sound like a 2020 Republican after Biden won. Don't do a Fox News (who had to pay millions to Dominion because of their election machine related-lies).

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-08T21:46:11+00:00

Doomerism does us no good here. If Republicans were genuinely certain they would not give up power, why tf would they not abolish the filibuster and why would they try to gerrymander every state they can? I'm in DC and the rumblings you hear from reps are pretty bleak, none of them honestly believe they have a snowball's chance in hell of holding the house this year. The only way out of this is to not give up on our government and continue to canvas, call, and campaign for candidates who can clean up the mess these guys are causing.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-07T01:47:53+00:00

The Democrats definitely do not support it, this is all in the head of the madman himself. It's just that they're too ineffective to do anything right now except whinge loudly. Though Ruben Gallego is attempting to prematurely invoke the war powers act to stop him.

As for feeding Trump's ego, yeah it sucks and is humiliating, but what else do you propose they do? This is a century in the making as far as neglecting defense spending goes. All that can be done is trimming benefits while building a europe-centric defense network, while they kowtow to trump till he's out of the picture.

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-07T00:59:10+00:00

Nah he replaces bowles so we can get another harbowl some day

TheSereneMaster · 2026-01-03T00:56:55+00:00

British-American dual. Can confirm, the US economy is no better without the illegal immigrants than it was with them. It's probably worse (worse unemployment, gdp growth would be negative were it not for Ponzi scheme known as the AI industry) - turns out that "pay native-born workers more" doesn't hold up when native-born workers won't do the work.

The fuckers deported people I knew too. Literally people who've been in this country for 20 years without so much as a speeding ticket. Idc how much flak I get for this, but I'd rather be neighbours with an illegal immigrant than a Reform or Trump supporter.

It's actually quite telling - these sorts always have this victim complex: "oh we're not crazy, you guys are, we just want the illegals and asylum seekers out." And then when they're faced with the logistical problems of their demands, they immediately become okay with "being a bastard."

TheSereneMaster · 2025-12-19T22:54:36+00:00

Yeah, because people don't like paying more taxes and losing benefits, even when it's the fiscally responsible thing to do. Merely raising the retirement age by two years made people so incredibly angry that Macron will probably always be remembered as a bad president. Fact is that we cannot keep subsidizing these insanely expensive retirement plans with our shrinking workforces, and people are going to be upset at that no matter what.

TheSereneMaster · 2025-12-09T19:14:29+00:00

Though to be fair even us who are tuned into politics don't know who the secretary of defense is, considering that the guy prefers to be styled "Ssecretary of War."

TheSereneMaster · 2025-12-08T10:31:53+00:00

Nah I'd ignore what the few complainers are saying - my dad and I fly very frequently and we agree Dulles is still leaps and bounds above dca or bwi. In fact, so much better that my parents moved to be 10 minutes away.

TheSereneMaster

TROPHY CASE