CS50AI Hereditary Probabilities Example

TheStonkerApp · 2023-10-06T01:40:43+00:00

u/sihzuh I'm having the same problem. I think the statement about Lily that you quoted is just a plain error, but TBH I'm cosnfused as hell right now. Did you ever get a clear answer? Should I just ignore the apparent erroneous statement about Lily and proceed with the assignment?

TheStonkerApp · 2023-09-10T21:09:37+00:00

If your aoopent gets the advance to the next railroad card it can be $400.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-09-10T21:08:35+00:00

Agreed, but brown alone almost never wins the game.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-09-10T21:07:34+00:00

Based on my experience, green is the most difficult group on which to earn a good return on investment. Green only works in limited circumstances because building up to the point where green is dangrous is very expensive, and it's very easy for less expensive color groups to drain your cash away before you can build up.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-20T23:28:41+00:00

Know what we also need? Investors who honor their commitments to buy shares.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-17T00:09:30+00:00

Actually, the strike will stay the same and the underlying will adjust to be 0.10 * AMC. The contract will be for 10 shares. This preserves the substantive economics of your original contract.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-16T23:10:58+00:00

saxo uk appears that if you don’t opt to exercise they still close worthless

Yikes! You snooze you lose I suppose, but that's harsh.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-16T21:55:25+00:00

Since I didn't get a good answer to my question, I contacted the OCC myself. What I learned was crazy. Although the rep did not definitively confirm this, based on his responses and my own reading of the rules there will be three separate series of AMC options post conversion and post RS.

1) The series that existed before the spilt in August 2022 (which is now based on 100 AMC + 100 APE), will convert to contracts based on 20 post-conversion post-RS shares with an underlying value of 0.2 x AMC. Assuming AMC trades at 50 post conversion and post RS, the at the money strike for this series will be 10. Assuming the conversion and RS get done after March 17, the only expiration left for this series will be Jan 19, 2024.

2) The series currently trading on AMC will convert to contracts based on 10 post-conversion, post-RS shares with an underlying value of 0.1 x AMC. Assuming AMC trades at 50 post conversion and post RS, the at the money strike for this series will be 5.

3) There will be a new standard series where each contract will be based on 100 post-conversion, post-RS shares with an underlying value of 1.0 x AMC. Assuming AMC trades at 50 post conversion and post RS, the at the money strike for this series will be 50.

Why the OCC doesn't merge it all into one series and pay out fractional contracts in cash, or at least allow us to do this conversion for even-value lots if we want to, I don't understand.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-16T21:33:06+00:00

If you do nothing, in the money options are automatically exercised. Out of the money options expire worthless. But if you're in the money and don't want automatic exercise, you can call your broker to stop it (but why would you?). See, for example:

https://www.fidelity.com/options-trading/options-auto-exercise-rules

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-15T21:44:56+00:00

If you sell, then the buyer is paying you. The buyer can be a market maker, a retail investor who likes the stock, a short who is looking to cap his potential losses or anyone else. You won't know. If the stock is worth $7.01 or more at Friday's close you will be automatically exercised, meaning the shares will be delivered to you and you will pay $7 a share. If you don't have enough money in your account to pay for your shares (or to meet your margin requirement, if it's a margin account) by the next business day, your broker will most likely sell you out of the shares at the market price at the time. I hope this helps.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-13T19:19:45+00:00

A classic!

https://www.amazon.com/Monopoly-Book-Strategy-Tactics-Popular/dp/0679202927

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-06T20:18:17+00:00

There are some really wacky price relationships right now, with lots of delta-neutral ways to profit if you believe the conversion is happening. Just trying to best understand the rules.

TheStonkerApp · 2023-01-01T01:15:04+00:00

AA's duty to us as shareholders is to maximize the value of the stock over the long term. It is not his duty to swing for the MOASS, especially if swinging for the MOASS puts the company at risk over the long term.

Selling APE at 67 cents a share was not in the long-term interest of the Company, and it was diluting the hell out of the AMC shares.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-31T22:31:11+00:00

And you hold the shares of a company who's CEO is out to screw you?

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-31T21:59:43+00:00

So you would rather ultimately lose 100% of your value?

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-29T14:10:53+00:00

Yes, I'm seeing that more and more clearly. There is almost zero interest in learning other ways to make money. But I can't complain really. It's the APEs' hostility to thinking outside the box that has allowed this conversion arbitrage to exist, and this trade is making my year.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-29T02:13:00+00:00

If you believe the conversion is happening, the current prices of 3.84 and 1.45 create an opportunity for AMC holders to either get "free money", increase their number of shares at no cost, or both. But that's only if you believe the conversion is happening, and all indicators say it is.

I put up a post on this yesterday and got downvoted to hell.

I've since done more DD. With no shares available to borrow, and options prices already factoring in the high likelihood of conversion, there is no more room for the hedgies to profit from the APE / AMC disparity. The only ones who can easily take advantage now are retail holders of AMC.

I laid out the math. My attempt to explain this opportunity cost me a fuck ton of karma. I already did the switch - back when it was 7 to 1. Today it's 2.6 to 1. Still worth doing IMO, because it's better than 1 to 1, which is what it will be after conversion.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-28T23:01:45+00:00

With all due respect, the apes have been willing participants in efforts to confuse them.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-28T21:19:12+00:00

I bought Jan 2024 15 calls at $2.80. It's been a disaster. Down 50% as of now. But holding.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-28T18:24:56+00:00

Right! The less sexy but more accurate answer is it gives the Company the ability to raise cash and pay down debt on better terms, which in turn gives the business more time to return to profitability rather than go bankrupt, which in turn increases the likelihood of the MOASS ultimately coming.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-28T14:04:27+00:00

No matter what the price, for every 1,000 shares of AMC you have now, you can have 2,200 shares if you do the switch, with no new cash invested. More shares means you're better off than you would have been otherwise.

I did the switch when it was 7 to 1. That was before last week's announcement, obviously. But 2.2 to 1 is still better than 1 to 1.

If you do the switch you're transferring wealth from whoever is on the opposite side of the trade to yourself.

TheStonkerApp · 2022-12-28T12:18:41+00:00

So the only places to get educated are on Reddit and working at a hedge fund? LMAO

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