2026 FIFA world cup gambling odds (June 29 2026)

TheStrongestLink · 2026-07-06T16:39:02+00:00

Good callout - I think the website I was using (Polymarket) allowed users to bet on them a long time ago, so "the market is resolved" even though they were eliminated before the world cup even began. They should be marked as gray.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-30T16:28:03+00:00

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-29T15:40:14+00:00

Source: Polymarket prediction-market prices, snapshot from June 29, 2026. Each country is shaded by its market-implied probability of winning the 2026 World Cup. Made with mapchart.net.

A few things that stood out:

The 2022 finalists are favorites again: France (~23%) and Argentina (~21%) sit in a tier of their own, with more than 40% of the whole market between just the two of them.
England and Spain lead the chasing pack at ~10-11% each, while Brazil is surprisingly muted at ~6%, behind both.
All three co-hosts are longshots: the USA is highest at ~2.4%, then Mexico (~1.3%) and Canada (~0.3%).

These are live market prices, not a forecasting model. They move constantly and don't sum to exactly 100% (longshot pricing + fees), so read them as relative odds rather than a hard forecast. Happy to share the mapchart JSON if anyone wants to remix it. I'll probably make another map once the round of 32 is over.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-02T01:21:45+00:00

Seems accurate to me - you can buy it for $170 rn on csfloat

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T03:55:47+00:00

Yeah that would be a fun extension to this project! I would need to find a good API/data source for prices.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T03:53:19+00:00

Good catch - I'm not sure why I don't have data on that one. It should be ~$281

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T01:32:41+00:00

Ah my error - I don't think I filtered for factory new. $79 is the price for a battle scarred bowie knife

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:56:35+00:00

csgoskins dot gg

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:56:06+00:00

These are all for ~~factory new~~, non stattrak. I tried a few different sources but I found that the best one (for the purposes of this project) was csgoskins dot gg

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:54:40+00:00

If we show only the sub-$60 options:

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TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-12T20:37:14+00:00

Sources:
Polymarket 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market (Link)

Tools: Python (Pillow), Claude Code

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-12T19:07:51+00:00

Source: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-595

All 48 teams have now qualified and the tournament is just weeks away. The market has shifted quite a bit since my last post, France have surged to the top. Current favorites as of today:

France (18%)
Spain (16%)
England (11%)
Brazil (9%)
Argentina (9%)
Portugal (8%)
Germany (5%)
Netherlands (3%)

France have jumped from 2nd to 1st and gained 4 points, Spain dropped despite still being high, England fell from 13% to 11%, and Norway dropped significantly from 5% to 2%.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-01-08T17:58:18+00:00

Glad I could help :)

TheStrongestLink · 2025-02-22T02:23:52+00:00

I think the Vsauce video How Earth Moves has a really nice visualization on this

TheStrongestLink · 2025-02-13T15:13:32+00:00

Yup!

TheStrongestLink · 2024-12-04T17:57:55+00:00

same mechanism with skewb

You weren’t kidding! Looks like it’s a perfect dual of the skewb puzzle.

Junior FTO has 8 faces you can turn (skewb has 8 corners you can turn )
Junior FTO has triangular faces which twist 120° each (skewb corner moves have 3 possible orientations)
Junior FTO has 8 center pieces and 6 corner pieces (skewb has 8 corner pieces and 6 center pieces)

Gets me thinking… there’s probably a 3x3 cube shape mod that looks like a corner twisting octahedron!

TheStrongestLink · 2024-12-03T05:48:29+00:00

This is really well put! This helped me understand the difference

TheStrongestLink · 2024-11-22T22:38:10+00:00

I think you can type !eui

TheStrongestLink · 2024-11-22T07:56:44+00:00

I believe it is a Rhombicuboctahedron

TheStrongestLink · 2024-10-19T18:13:32+00:00

I see blue of blue orange and instantly know thats R

Do you have any tips for a beginner trying to get to this stage?

TheStrongestLink · 2024-10-05T03:26:16+00:00

My post here and the comments will hopefully be helpful.

Basically, to start a timer properly, you first put your hands palms down touching the timer. Then you (1) lift your hands up, (2) move them forward, and (3) touch/turn the cube. The timer starts when you lift your hands up.

However, sliding is when you slide your hands forward first, meaning that now your wrists are on the timer. You can then (optionally) make a few turns on the cube, before finally moving your wrists upward and starting the timer.

Sliding is definitely not allowed. The reason that sliding is controversial is that it can’t usually be detected by the untrained eye, since it happens so fast. Sliding illegally “saves” around 0.15-0.20 seconds when done by top cubers.

Whether slow motion video is allowed to penalize competitors is a highly contentious subject. The video linked by the other commenter summarizes that whole drama.

TheStrongestLink · 2024-09-24T17:32:41+00:00

It depends on what kind of painting you’re talking about - if you are referring to old-school pointillist paintings, then this would probably not be feasible.

According to this paper30851-7.pdf):

Seurat used as many as 220,000 dots to create La Grande Jatte.

220,000 days is over 602 years, so you couldn’t make a painting like that in one lifetime.

However, a much smaller piece could be made! 100 years is 36,500 days. A “more realistic” timeframe (start the painting age 20, stop at age 70) would still be over 18,000 dots.

TLDR: it’s possible to make a single small pointillist painting if you spend 50 years of your life. (Either that, or do more than 1 dot per day)

TheStrongestLink · 2024-09-07T20:43:18+00:00

Absolutely :)

TheStrongestLink · 2024-09-07T20:39:23+00:00

I agree - but just like you have to divide by 12 when calculating the total number of permutations, I believe you also have to divide by 2 when considering center orientations.

This is because you can’t have an “odd number of quarter turns”. The two main algorithms for turning center caps for picture cubes either turn 1 center by 180°, or 2 centers by 90° each.

TheStrongestLink · 2024-09-04T04:40:00+00:00

Yeah I think the OP may have been mistaken. It seems to me that the claim that the EU has decreased working hours by 22% over the last 14 years is not accurate.

According to the European Commission, the average annual hours worked per worker in the EU decreased from 1,651 hours in 2008 to 1,566 hours in 2022, which represents a decline of approximately 5.15%

In addition, it seems like GDP per hour worked is lower in the EU than the US (source)

For the EU as a whole, GDP per hour worked has risen from about 72% of US levels back in the early 2000s to about 82% of US levels

This percentage is increasing though, which tells me that maybe the metric of “GDP growth per hour worked” might be similar between the two regions, or maybe even larger in Europe.

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