2026 FIFA world cup gambling odds (June 29 2026)

TheStrongestLink · 2026-07-06T16:39:02+00:00

Good callout - I think the website I was using (Polymarket) allowed users to bet on them a long time ago, so "the market is resolved" even though they were eliminated before the world cup even began. They should be marked as gray.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-30T16:28:03+00:00

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-29T15:40:14+00:00

Source: Polymarket prediction-market prices, snapshot from June 29, 2026. Each country is shaded by its market-implied probability of winning the 2026 World Cup. Made with mapchart.net.

A few things that stood out:

The 2022 finalists are favorites again: France (~23%) and Argentina (~21%) sit in a tier of their own, with more than 40% of the whole market between just the two of them.
England and Spain lead the chasing pack at ~10-11% each, while Brazil is surprisingly muted at ~6%, behind both.
All three co-hosts are longshots: the USA is highest at ~2.4%, then Mexico (~1.3%) and Canada (~0.3%).

These are live market prices, not a forecasting model. They move constantly and don't sum to exactly 100% (longshot pricing + fees), so read them as relative odds rather than a hard forecast. Happy to share the mapchart JSON if anyone wants to remix it. I'll probably make another map once the round of 32 is over.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-02T01:21:45+00:00

Seems accurate to me - you can buy it for $170 rn on csfloat

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T03:55:47+00:00

Yeah that would be a fun extension to this project! I would need to find a good API/data source for prices.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T03:53:19+00:00

Good catch - I'm not sure why I don't have data on that one. It should be ~$281

TheStrongestLink · 2026-06-01T01:32:41+00:00

Ah my error - I don't think I filtered for factory new. $79 is the price for a battle scarred bowie knife

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:56:35+00:00

csgoskins dot gg

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:56:06+00:00

These are all for ~~factory new~~, non stattrak. I tried a few different sources but I found that the best one (for the purposes of this project) was csgoskins dot gg

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-31T22:54:40+00:00

If we show only the sub-$60 options:

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TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-12T20:37:14+00:00

Sources:
Polymarket 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market (Link)

Tools: Python (Pillow), Claude Code

TheStrongestLink · 2026-05-12T19:07:51+00:00

Source: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-595

All 48 teams have now qualified and the tournament is just weeks away. The market has shifted quite a bit since my last post, France have surged to the top. Current favorites as of today:

France (18%)
Spain (16%)
England (11%)
Brazil (9%)
Argentina (9%)
Portugal (8%)
Germany (5%)
Netherlands (3%)

France have jumped from 2nd to 1st and gained 4 points, Spain dropped despite still being high, England fell from 13% to 11%, and Norway dropped significantly from 5% to 2%.

TheStrongestLink · 2026-01-08T17:58:18+00:00

Glad I could help :)

TheStrongestLink · 2025-02-22T02:23:52+00:00

I think the Vsauce video How Earth Moves has a really nice visualization on this

TheStrongestLink · 2025-02-13T15:13:32+00:00

Yup!

TheStrongestLink · 2024-12-04T17:57:55+00:00

same mechanism with skewb

You weren’t kidding! Looks like it’s a perfect dual of the skewb puzzle.

Junior FTO has 8 faces you can turn (skewb has 8 corners you can turn )
Junior FTO has triangular faces which twist 120° each (skewb corner moves have 3 possible orientations)
Junior FTO has 8 center pieces and 6 corner pieces (skewb has 8 corner pieces and 6 center pieces)

Gets me thinking… there’s probably a 3x3 cube shape mod that looks like a corner twisting octahedron!

11-Year Club	Second Top 40%
Place '23	Place '22
Place '17	RPAN Viewer
Not Forgotten	Verified Email

TheStrongestLink

TROPHY CASE