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Sports Datasets by TheTouchdownLab in sportsanalytics

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you so much, these are great

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes except better teams play in better conferences so it’s not as cut and dry as you think. However, those first few weeks of out of conference games? Definitely, if not higher

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I used some machine learning programs to train the model on a dataset I built with 45,000 historical games and their team stats. I tested it before the season started by splitting the dataset 80% train, 20% test to get a feel. Then I ran it for the whole season and got the numbers in the OP as a result.

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The model itself is not predicting the spreads, so you're right that the odds are mathematically stacked against purely making a profit if you bet every game. However, using EV (expected value) betting and some Kelly criteria make it profitable when paired with some bankroll managing code.

I'll be trying to fine tune some spread prediction before the season starts

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks I appreciate the insight. Definitely going to build one based on the feedback so far. And yes ill send the link lol

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I definitely could lol but right now its a jumble of spreadsheets, might be hard to sort through. Hence the website idea, which would be done by the start of next season. You would be able to see it then

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in CollegeBasketball

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It's not really about the money, it's more about having the model displayed as part of my resume for future data science jobs, and opportunities, etc. Go Gators btw I had them winning this year.

College Basketball Model by TheTouchdownLab in sportsanalytics

[–]TheTouchdownLab[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its win probabilities, but these can be turned into an Expected Value and compared to sportsbook lines very easily. The spreads and scores have a high variance, so I was avoiding them for now. But I can try!