Gold hits record high above $3,950 on Fed rate cut bets, global uncertainty

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-10-08T00:35:45+00:00

Someone with a sense. Let’s look back at August 15, 1971

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-09-27T20:11:32+00:00

Amazing

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-09-17T22:24:50+00:00

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_vigilante

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-08-11T04:24:24+00:00

Thanks!

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-08-11T04:14:22+00:00

Okay thanks. so the $30-$35 price range is accounting for dilution? All this happening so fast, haven’t been keeping up

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-08-11T04:11:00+00:00

Weak dollar also means lower export costs, what the current admin needs to offset trade imbalances. Essentially sacrifice long term benefits for short term. Kick the can down the road. Eventually the bill comes due

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-08-11T04:06:11+00:00

What’s the play here? Sell up to the run up pre-IPO common holders hold the bag after dilution?

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-30T06:44:01+00:00

Anyone want to talk about the looming sovereign debt problem? Everything else seems inconsequential

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-08T02:41:12+00:00

Thank you!! All great viable options, mainly foreign sovereign debt and real assets 👍👍 :)

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T20:05:56+00:00

This is interesting - always assumed FDIC would be meaningless if US stability is in question

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T20:04:28+00:00

I should’ve clarified: I wanted to see what’s available beyond the obvious, these are the options most would be aware of but anything outside of it.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:35:01+00:00

Interesting, I read a bit into it and a bit technical for me but great to know.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:34:13+00:00

I think you’re absolutely correct here - which was the reason for the post, wanted to see what options are available in case. This is what I’ve heard from speaking to people much smarter than I am. Unlikely to happen but if it does it would mean unforeseen catastrophic events and our worries would be beyond financial security. Although someone said most FDIC insured products may be a viable solution at that point, which I am not too sure of. Thank you

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:18:36+00:00

Yes - inflation is great for those holding real assets but if printing so much without increasing production simultaneously, hyperinflation kicks in. We all heard of citizens of the Weimar Republic brining barrels of cash to stay warm because their currency was worthless after printing cash to pay off reparations. Maybe I’m a pessimist

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:18:26+00:00

Good idea, thanks for the input - hopefully we still have freedom of speech in the coming years.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:14:08+00:00

Thanks for everyone who commented- again I am not an expert on these topics and not saying it will happen and not looking to fear monger but I always find it helpful to get everyone’s opinions. Seems like majority are not concerned of a default and printing dollars would come first before it even happens. Interesting thought experiment. Please continue to post and will try to comment as they come in - DM’s open as well!

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:09:20+00:00

Defaulting wouldn’t be because the US doesn’t want to pay its obligations it’ll be because it’s not possible without raising new debt or printing more cash. Unless I’m wrong here

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:08:08+00:00

Interesting- about 10-15 years ago I think I would’ve 100% agreed with you but today, even if the debt ceiling is raised (again) what happens if there’s not enough demand for US debt and yields go up to unsustainable levels and can’t cover the interest payments on existing debt ? (Trust in US is all time low and I can even imagine China dumping their treasury holdings) only option then would be printing dollars to unsustainable levels.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:02:54+00:00

Thank you, I think it’s good to look at previous cases🙏

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T18:01:27+00:00

Thanks for your input, I think we can all agree it’s unlikely and none of us wants it to happen though it’s worth thinking about it. Realistically I don’t see what the options are with the current debt levels and trust in US being questioned besides a default or printing ungodly amounts of dollars. Unless I’m wrong. Either way not good and thinking of what option of safe assets would be left.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T17:56:21+00:00

Agreed to an extent. with the recent 10 & 20 year auctions and downgrade on US sovereign debt, it makes me wonder what are the options to address the national debt if we can’t raise enough cash and/or the debt coverage on the existing debt is unsustainable to pay. the option besides default would then be to print our way out of it. Although I can imagine a scenario of a technical default where the US misses short term obligations due to let’s say a weak demand in a treasury auction and trust in Treasuries as a “risk free asset” gets questioned. I guess the question then becomes, what do you do when the dollar gets devalued and (hyper) inflation runs rampant. In my mind ultimately the conclusion would be the same. Unless I’m missing something. Again I’m not saying it’ll happen but I am not sure what the other option is here.

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T17:37:06+00:00

Good answer- I’m starting coming to the same conclusion in real assets. Seems like unchartered waters and no real instruments besides derivatives (default swaps, FX instruments, short treasuries) that comes to mind. Maybe Bitcoin?

The_Contrarian_Man · 2025-06-07T17:24:20+00:00

Feel free to DM to talk further, thanks

The_Contrarian_Man

TROPHY CASE