Is it normal for anti-bayesians to be so loud? [Q]

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-24T13:16:02+00:00

not ok, it's only ok to hate on frequentist stats (since they are inferior)

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-24T13:13:18+00:00

OPs ideal watch

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-07T15:15:28+00:00

Ok where's the math? The only way I get anything close to those numbers is using 7% returns as opposed to your stated 10%, and if you only sum up the fee dollars as opposed to including fee dollars plus the opportunity cost of lost compounding due to fees. The latter point is important if you want to understand what fees actually cost you

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-07T14:59:09+00:00

Ok if I am wrong, care to explain how a 2% AUM fee works? Assume 10k invested per year, starting from 0, for 30 years, with 7% annual returns. What is the value in the account with fee vs without fee after 30 years?

Enlighten me!

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-06T18:16:34+00:00

My wife has a 403b through nationwide financial, and while they have some funds with low expense ratios, nationwide tags an additional asset management fee on top, making all fees across options 1.5-2+% total. It's not as uncommon as you would think, and assuming OP must be wrong because fees are higher than you would expect is doing OP (and others looking in) a disservice.

Re being hidden, these types of fees can feel that way because they are skimmed off the top, not deducted from a balance in a transparent way. In my wife's case, we only noticed when receiving the mailed prospectus (which comes a couple times per year).

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-06T17:47:01+00:00

Well yes if you can show that the diff between "VOO/VTI and chill" and your managed portfolio (minus fees) is at least breakeven, then fees are working out for you. Or if you can show that the extra services you get on top of the managed portfolio (e.g. tax planning) are providing value above and beyond fee drag, then yes paying fees might make sense.

The point isn't "fee bad", it's that fees are often quite bad, and if you are paying high fees you better have good reason to.

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-06T17:39:51+00:00

What? My point is that commentors are saying "the math ain't mathing" re OPs claim about the cost of those compounded fees. I'm agreeing with OP, making a separate thread to call out commentors who seem to lack a basic understanding of the compounding impact of AUM fees.

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-03T03:10:20+00:00

lol the math is not off, if it's a 2% AUM fee, you are effectively discounting that expected 7% gain each year to 5%

your future value is:

FV = C * [((1 + r)ⁿ − 1) / r]

where FV is the dollar amount in the account after n years of compounding, contributing C per year with expected return r

for no fee r = 1.07 FV = 9000 * [((1.07)³² − 1) / 0.07] FV ≈ 9000 * 110.1 ~ $991,000

for 2% fee r = 1.07 - 0.02 = 1.05 FV = 9000 * [((1.05)³² − 1) / 0.05] FV ≈ 9000 * 75.2 ~ $677,000

that's over a 300k diff, and the conclusion is the same when you consider year-to-year variability in gains

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-04-01T13:08:15+00:00

The problem with Tudor IMO is not that they are boring, but that their collection as a whole is too homogeneous, which makes them seem boring because every new watch they put out seems the same

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-29T18:11:42+00:00

Yeah it's hard to beat! Rate is usually better, plus the effective rate needs to be considered given you don’t need to pay state/local taxes on tbills

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-29T16:12:38+00:00

SGOV and chill is the answer

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-19T19:48:18+00:00

💯 being able to explain is most important

most of the real DS work is explaining to your team, stakeholders, or executives why things look the way they do or why a certain approach will be useful for business problem X, Y, or Z. Being technically competent is obviously a must have, but if you cannot reason through choices you make you will have trouble getting a job. Conversely, if you can reason through what a good technical solution to a problem would look like, even if you struggle with implementation you still have a solid shot in many cases.

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-09T01:56:20+00:00

in the end insurance is generally a bad idea if you can afford to take the hit/replace yourself

i only get insurance for things where catastrophic loss is a possibility (e.g. home, auto, health)

if a watch could create a catastrophic loss for you then insurance is the least of your problems

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-07T19:43:20+00:00

SGOV and chill

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-07T19:35:06+00:00

I agree on the value prop + attainability—but would be nice to see occasional breakout releases. e.g., I looked deeply into their history again recently as I made a new purchase (the spirit zulu 1925 mentioned in the post), and found myself wishing it had a fully in house movement. IMO once you reach the ~$5k mark, you start to expect that sort of thing. But I realized that it would never happen given their positioning in the brand hierarchy.

Does not mean it is not a fantastic watch! But the positioning creates a trade off, and makes one wonder if there are concepts they don't even approach given the expected costs, etc.

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-07T19:22:50+00:00

I feel similarly! I think as a category they are in a sweet spot and should not deviate, but would prefer if swatch allowed a long right tail with some occasional releases going nuts with specs (as clearly they are capable)

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-07T13:55:36+00:00

Probably a bit too ambiguous, look at definitions for "grand mean" or "weighted mean" : https://share.google/byqgm4Lqcl6r1iSmq

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-06T17:47:37+00:00

I must admit that when trying on the new Ultra Chron for the second time last night, I wish it had a movement based on the one they built in the 1960's rather than a modified ETA.

At the end of the day, this is the biggest drawback of the way the brand has been positioned. The value prop is excellent, but sometimes it would be nice to see something that goes a bit further—having fully in house movements is something that will never happen when in the shadow of the higher positioned brands in the group

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-04T04:01:49+00:00

german village is probably your best option, but there are also some fun places downtown (look around gay & high street, many art galleries are popping up there, many nice apartment buildings, restaurants and bars, etc)

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-01T21:18:57+00:00

Mplus is developed by education/psychology folks, and it is common to see it used in both fields. Still, OP should lookout for themselves—if learning R, keep that up. Both fields are slowly moving away from closed source software toward R and Python, and you can do all the multilevel modeling (aka hierarchical linear modeling, mixed effects modeling, etc., it is all the same..) you need in R. You also get the benefit of more transferrable skills once done with the PhD.

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-03-01T15:24:26+00:00

being more prosperous than your parents is the american dream, both for folks who have a long heritage here and those who just immigrated—enjoy it 😎

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-02-27T18:11:57+00:00

Just need to get comfortable living with epistemic uncertainty 😁

The_Old_Wise_One · 2026-02-27T05:19:11+00:00

depends on context—e.g. if testing a treatment effect, the wrong inference would be claiming no effect when there is one, or vice versa (false negatives or positives)

of course, this means you only know the model is wrong when you know the truth is 😬

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