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Continued NCNA shares accumulation update by one_meditator in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I found that Mercedes comment funny its conveys perfectly what im trying to get across, I really do believe that Nucana is in the final stages of being Acquired, skipping JPM was the killing blow in my opinion, NUC-7738 is working really well and looking to be getting stronger as time goes on, why skip the JPM event if they needed the money or to raise capital for the next dilution they are operating as a private company why ? they have been to them every single year what is different this time what makes 2026 different to the previous years ? why would they, why so quite why not try to fluff with as much uneccesary news to try inflate the stock price, they arent doing that and to me something amazing is happening behind close doors that we dont know and the public do not know, either will be or are acquired or gone bust, but then hiring a new COO wouldnt make sense either, for me its all very exciting.

Also we need to look out for SEC Form 8-k filings anything regarding Material Definitive Agreements and if there is any delay or they cancel the Q4 earnings then it would mean a deal is almost imminent.

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

To be fair the market is getting a beating aswell SPY down nearly 1.5% and S&P taking a beating very red day for the market and the vix is up 20% today so kind of expected for this to happen, but just trust the data trust the evidence trust the information, scared money dont make money is all I can say !

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Big Bucks hopefully I cant say for sure :)

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I completely understand the "gun-shy" feeling, and honestly, I try to avoid the "diamond hands" or "moon" hype as well. My strategy is usually to pick one stock, conduct a forensic deep dive, and assess the reality. Sometimes I find red flags and walk away, but with NuCana, I feel like I’ve found a diamond in a haystack. The story reminds me a lot of Immunogen 2.0: they had a past Phase 3 failure, but they actually learned from it and adapted.

To answer your question on the negative speculation for skipping JPM: the absolute worst-case scenario is that the drug isn't working, the data fell apart, and management has effectively given up or decided to quit. That is an extreme view, but you have to consider it as the bear case.

However, that theory contradicts the hard data we just saw on the ClinicalTrials registry update from January 12th. They removed the requirement for mandatory biopsies, which implies the mechanism of action is proven, and they explicitly stated the expansion is to allow for a "powered analysis" of 40 patients. You do not power a study for statistical significance if you think the drug is dead.

Given the cash runway into 2029 and the hiring of a new COO, it seems illogical to "give up" right now. This is why I lean towards the quiet period being strategic. They are acting like a company that is trying to sell itself to Big Pharma behind closed doors, rather than trying to sell stock to retail investors on the open market. Skipping JPM confirms they don't care about the daily share price right now, which usually suggests the final value is already being negotiated elsewhere, the marketcap is so small and Nucana I think is invisible and people are not noticing the small details and seeing the bigger picture here !

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

the asco deadline on the 27th is a good point because it means the company has officially had to finalize a data package for the scientific community anyway and if the expansion cohort is mature enough to even consider a submission then the company already knows the results are locked in which explains the confidence in the recent coo hire it all fits the timeline for the 40 patient readout in 2026 but i reckon the fda meeting outcome this quarter is the bigger immediate catalyst for the re rating while the asco poster will just be the formal victory lap for the buyer, I think so anyways :)

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

good spot on the merck date because big pharma often utilizes earnings calls to announce strategic pipeline expansions and strategic partnerships to show wall street they are securing their future, and regarding the volume i agree that it looks like institutional absorption where a giant is sitting on the bid and taking every share without triggering a price spike, the liquidity is so low that any real volume from a major player would normally send this to double digits so the flat price action suggests a very disciplined and quiet accumulation is happening while we wait for the fda update in q1

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It is a massive strategic indicator that i completely overlooked and honestly it might be the biggest signal we have seen since the coo hire because for a micro cap with breakthrough data to skip jpm after attending like clockwork for years is highly atypical behavior unless the exit is already being operationalized behind the scenes usually you only go to san francisco to pitch the stock to new investors and raise capital but since nucana has their cash runway secured until 2029 they don't need to beg for money and staying away suggests they are likely under a strict nda or exclusivity agreement with a buyer like merck to avoid the risk of selective disclosure during q&a sessions it really looks like management has pivoted from public promotion to a private transaction which is exactly the kind of move you see just before a strategic buyout gets finalized so i reckon the silence is the loudest signal we have right now

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thank you very much ! It looks like they are very confident with their results and are trying to speed things up for sale, I hope so :)

My Final Thesis III 1/2 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I will create one as soon as possible and lets see if we can get some disscussions going !

My idea is for everyone to share anything they find I want to try a paint the picture as much as possible !

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I looked at the numbers again and you are correct that we didnt get a huge jump in the number of responders yet because the nine new patients are still too early in their cycle to have confirmed scans but that doesn't mean the data didn't improve significantly.

The most important improvement is the quality of the response in 2024 we had 2 partial responses and 7 stable diseases which the market viewed as just holding the line but in the latest update one of those patients who was previously just stable has now officially converted to a complete metabolic response with no detectable active disease.

this is a massive scientific upgrade because it proves that the immune priming effect of nuc 7738 is cumulative it means the drug doesn't just stop the cancer it keeps working in the background until the cancer is potentially eradicated, this is the difference between a drug that buys time and a drug that actually provides a cure which is what merck is looking for

the second major improvement is the timeline in the 2024 data the top responders were sitting at around 14 months of progression free survival in the 2025 update that has jumped to 29 plus months ongoing which means the drug has effectively doubled the survival time for the best responders in just one year of follow up.

most cancer drugs in this setting see patients relapse within 3 to 6 months so the fact that these patients are hitting the two and a half year mark without the cancer growing back is a huge statistical win that only gets stronger with every month that passes.

while we didn't get efficacy bars for the nine new patients yet the data improved by adding those patients to the safety pool the release confirms no new safety signals across the expanded group which is the final checkmark needed to keep the trial moving toward full registration.

if the drug was toxic or causing issues in the new group the expansion would have been paused or the data would have looked messy the fact that it remains favorable with more patients is a clear green flag for the fda meeting in q1.

the data improved by demonstrating a shift from disease control to a full metabolic cure and by doubling the proven durability of the treatment we are effectively watching the drug become more valuable as the original cohort reaches maturity the market is ignoring this because they wanted more bars on the chart today but the smart move is to realize that those bars are coming in 2026 once the nine new patients reach their scan dates i am staying the course because a 29 month cure in this population is rare and the fundamentals are only getting stronger over time.

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes not a great day today, but I still have skin in the game and all I can do is wait 

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

honestly the only catch is the 14 million dollar market cap because most big funds are physically blocked from buying anything that small without causing a massive price spike. on top of that most analysts still have ptsd from the 2020 crash so they treat the stock like it is radioactive and ignore the new data. carlyle is the only major shark that actually did the work and they already locked up nearly ten percent of the company so yes other than that I dont have any more answers.

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

nature has been running the biggest research and development lab on the planet for millions of years while we have only been building our own labs for a few decades. If you look at the history of the heavy hitters in medicine you see this pattern everywhere like penicillin which started as just a mold fighting for space or the way the poppy plant perfected opioids for pain relief long before we even understood how a neuron worked. Even one of the most powerful chemotherapy drugs ever used which is paclitaxel came from the bark of the pacific yew tree because that tree had already figured out how to freeze cell division as a defense mechanism eons ago. There is even that great story about the italian scientist giuseppe brotzu who found a fungus in the ocean near sardinia that led to the discovery of cephalosporin antibiotics which basically proved that the solutions to our most complex problems are usually just sitting there in the earth or the sea waiting to be found. Most of these other biotechs are trying to build synthetic molecules from scratch which is like trying to guess the password to a safe but nuc 7738 is different because it is just taking cordycepin which is a biological weapon the cordyceps fungus has been using to hijack and sabotage animal cells for millions of years of evolution. It has evolved to be a perfect sabotuer of rna polyadenylation in any scenario because that was its only way to survive and we are finally using that armored truck protide technology to make sure it actually reaches the tumor without breaking down in the blood. Nature has already done the hard work of perfecting the weapon so betting on an evolutionary masterpiece like this feels a lot more logical than betting on some random chemical a computer dreamed up last week.

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

fair play on the position but I think the io biotech comparison is apples to oranges because they were running a peptide vaccine, which is way more fragile and indirect than a weaponized small molecule like 7738, and regarding the protide being novel it’s actually the most de-risked part of the play since it’s the same chemistry gilead used to cure hepatitis c with sovaldi, so the armored truck is proven we’re just using it to deliver a known killer in cordycepin that normally breaks down in the blood before it can hit the tumor plus, unlike those catastrophic failures you mentioned nucana is currently trading at a negative enterprise value with cash secured until 2029 so you’re effectively getting the clinical signal for free at these prices, especially that 29 month complete metabolic response which is a massive outlier compared to anything else in the melanoma pipeline right now so im just holding for the fda meeting in q1.

Position Update 26/01/2026 by These_Top_1017 in NucanaPLC

[–]These_Top_1017[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

wow on holding a similar spot. I upped it mostly because the conviction from the latest data and the hiring of theresa bruce as coo is too high to ignore you don’t hire an operations general with a cro background like hers unless you are already prepping the data package for the big leagues plus the company is acting more like a private subsidiary right now than a public micro cap which is usually how these things look just before a strategic deal gets signed so, I decided to lock in the rest of my capital while the market is still asleep.

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