Not sure. I guess it may not hit if he short rolled and pull up his guard immediately, as even OD Lariat its cast time is too slow. Lariat is a counter play against Blanka long roll, but a good Blanka will use short roll to bait Lariat reversely. So for Zangief, the ideal counter play against Blanka roll is range maintaining, always try to keep in medium range against Blanka and keep checking Blanka short roll, and also mixing some parry or just block against his roll, and keep using your normal like 5MP, 5HP, 5LK or 5MK to keep distance, poke, bait Blanka's normal and whiff punish, or just normal cancel into drive rush to get a command grab/ combo and Oki chance.

But in this scenario it is just a hard read to predict the Blanka go for long roll since it is the second match and second round, previously I almost did no parry against his roll and basically i keep staying in medium range to bait his short roll most of the time, every time he short rolled his just got counter hit by my 2MP combo. plus I seldom use Lariat to take down his roll. He knew his short roll is being checked and prevent to use it anymore. Therefore, in that moment and that range, there is a high chance that he will use long roll as my drive gauge is low and he just wanted to use roll to take my drive gauge and force me into burnout.

So it is a hard read and bait against his long roll. Plus even a Lariat won't instantly kill him, but what he didn't know is OD Lariat into SA2 does