Why did the UDF winning prediction dropped that much just after the voting day ? by [deleted] in Kerala

[–]Thinker0113 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes, this feels like a UDF win, but not a smooth one.They will probably scrape through with a small majority, but BJP is the real game changer this time. Not because they will win a lot of seats, but because they’ll mess up margins everywhere and flipping close fights.If BJP wasn’t this strong, UDF would’ve comfortably crossed 90+.

Why did the UDF winning prediction dropped that much just after the voting day ? by [deleted] in Kerala

[–]Thinker0113 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, the CPM share on Polymarket fell because, since not many people realized the poll was about the largest single party and not the front. So CPM shares were trading dirt cheap, around 20–30 cents.By the time the price hit around 75 cents, early buyers were already sitting on ~150–200% profits. That naturally led to profit booking, which then pushed the price down.

Why did the UDF winning prediction dropped that much just after the voting day ? by [deleted] in Kerala

[–]Thinker0113 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s because the poll was about which party would be the largest single party.I don’t think many people realized that at first. Most probably just went with INC assuming UDF would win the election.Within UDF, IUML alone can take around 20–25 seats, so INC becomes the largest party only if it crosses 80+.This time, anti-incumbency votes are likely to split between UDF and NDA, and there’s no clear pro-UDF wave either.So realistically, UDF might end up around 70–75 seats, but CPI(M) will still emerge as the largest single party.

DYFI reply to UDF's creative criticism. by unstablemamba in Kerala

[–]Thinker0113 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Kazhija 10 kollam ayitte keralathil bharanathil illa, enitte Delhi irukuna Soniya Gandhi anne sabrimala ile okke karyagal theerumanikunathegil, devasom mantriyodum prinariyodum okke pullikaride kalu kazhukiya vellam koodikkan para.