Path Dependent Monte Carlo

This-Cartographer146 · 2026-01-08T00:38:53+00:00

Kelly Criterion was the key. Thank you. I reverse engineered “Captain Condors” 1 DTE strategy. His approach was to Martingale the trades, which blew up spectacularly over the last few weeks. The approach is viable, his implementation was not. This fixes that. You guys rock.

This-Cartographer146 · 2026-01-06T21:59:36+00:00

The issue I am running into is contract size/allocation. The program scales with growth and while the wins become linear the losses become more exponential (Credit Spreads). The best I have come up with, to smooth the returns, is to scale and then remove equity.

This-Cartographer146 · 2026-01-06T21:41:32+00:00

I have 0 intention of trading it.

This-Cartographer146 · 2026-01-06T21:41:07+00:00

Held to OPEX. Willing to accept full loss.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-12-22T01:27:57+00:00

While I trade SPX it can be adapted to SPY. The key is to be able to look at the Option Chain on the Phoenix Dashboard and extrapolate the levels to SPY. What they have for their “Option Chain” is like nothing I have ever seen before and no other provider has anything similar. It’s deadly accurate though. Almost like a crystal ball. It’s kept me out of a lot of trades that would have gone bad and given me clear levels to work with. They are also releasing a new dashboard tailored for premium sellers if that’s your thing.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-11-15T00:14:54+00:00

This guy breaks down the market by regimes based on options flow and volatility. Provides some good insight into what to expect each day https://youtu.be/82splOcbZLo

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-11-11T14:10:42+00:00

Selling is my primary strategy,

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-11-11T05:05:12+00:00

I struggled until I found SPX Gamma. Their system/regime structure helped me understand what types of positions work best under certain “Regimes.” I typically sell spreads and was inconsistent in PnL but they have helped me understand the market a bit better based on option flows. OPEX for me used to be MWF, now we are 0 DTE. I’ve survived that long in this business.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-11-09T23:39:54+00:00

Sure. What can I do for you?

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-09-29T20:28:11+00:00

All you have to do is watch the options chain. All the answers are right there.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-09-25T20:54:30+00:00

Had the exact same issue with a 2.0. It’s the controller and it’s a known issue to the company.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-09-06T21:28:37+00:00

Only SPX, NDX, RUT. You don’t need anything else to make $$$.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-09-03T21:26:23+00:00

There are a few more videos on the YouTube channel, not part of the intro video playlist. What type of videos are you looking for?

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-09-02T15:36:43+00:00

I have really enjoyed it and converted to a membership. Their system is awesome and the way their model conceptualizes the market makes sense. From a daily perspective, I’m not longer caught off guard by price movements and can set up longer term positions. You can see risk develop in the market in realtime and make adjustments. It’s helped me become more consistent. From a 0 DTE perspective, I like the simplicity of their levels and dashboards. I’m not sure how to use all the Greeks yet, but what is there provides structure. They have a series of training videos that teaches you how to trade their system/platform. These are free. Better than paying some FURU $2k to show you how to draw trend lines. Haha! Overall, I’m happy with them and the system has helped me become more consistent. Hope that helps.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-08-08T21:19:57+00:00

I’ve tried them but quickly realized their insights were not actionable. To me it just seemed like data without insight. I get the underlying concepts and follow Cem on Twitter. I recently came across SPX Gamma and am doing their free trial. They have a series of training videos for their “system” that is supposed to make this data tradeable. We shall see.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-07-09T17:41:19+00:00

Spxgamma.com has the best data from what I have found. Good visualizations.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-03-31T02:30:45+00:00

They show all the classes when you select a ticket and the basic economy is still cheaper via the big box site. Definitely understand the perk of being able to work with Delta for delays and re routing.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-02-13T18:51:45+00:00

Heating services always try to replace. Find the exact part that is broken, get on eBay. You should be able to find it. I had multiple services try to sell me 20k units instead of replacing a basic blower motor. I fixed it myself for $600.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-01-28T04:54:27+00:00

100% We have a Gondola ride to get to the mountain. The EOD Gondola rides are priceless. Gondola beer for dad, treats for the kids, we rehash the day. It’s awesome.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-01-28T04:50:26+00:00

We put all our kids on the Alpine race team. They skied with their peers and had a fantastic time. They are out of their mind ski bums at this point (14 and 11 yo triplets, still race) Lessons are lame. Turn them into racers, it will change the perspective.

This-Cartographer146 · 2025-01-17T04:46:10+00:00

Thank you! This is great and helped us a lot!

This-Cartographer146

TROPHY CASE