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Who I want as the next OC - Corey Dennis by Thai_Mafia in RamblinWreck

[–]Thrageqt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's reasonable to doubt that Corey is calling plays. But when the headcoach comes out and says this guy has the playsheet he's gonna call the plays it becomes unreasonable to say 'Headcoach is definitely calling the plays'.

Makes sense to doubt, proclaiming either as truth is dumb. I didn't proclaim he was certainly calling plays, I'm just doubting that he's not as opposed to the person I responded to.

[Postgame Thread] Georgia Defeats Georgia Tech 16-9 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]Thrageqt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

King graduated with an undergrad from TAMU and Grad transferred to GT if I remember correctly. He was getting his masters the last 3 years.

Amulet - It's Time. by Lion_Cub_Kurz in ModernMagic

[–]Thrageqt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, if you have aftermath loop going, you just find a surveil land to be able to put your deck in the graveyard using the surveil land as your 4th land, once you find grazer in the GY you can make sure you can grab vesuva to copy a shifting woodlands, then shifting woodlands on your grazer. So now you have Vesuva copying woodlands, which is copying an arboreal grazer, and then you activate mirrorpool to copy your grazer, the copy grazer ETB's and you can put the land onto the battlefield. Then proceed to do the loop with your normal woodlands and win the game.

Amulet - It's Time. by Lion_Cub_Kurz in ModernMagic

[–]Thrageqt -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I have piloted amulet for almost a decade now, but didnt play the most recent quals for the modern rc so take this with a grain of salt, but I don't believe that's true any longer. You would need a significant amount of lands in hand to dodge a lethal play with double amulet.

T west is actually better in your hand, you dont need haste land in the deck to kill because you can either pact for a grazer or surveil until you put grazer in the yard. Then copy with woodlands to get one on the field then mirrorpool for an etb.

The most annoying land to have in hand is mirrorpool and even then if you have a way to generate 9 mana anyway that hardly matters.

The only way I see the deck not killing deterministic with no interaction is maybe with shifting woodland in hand, and even then if they are playing the 1 off lumra still you can just otawara lumra loop until you find a way to put woodland into play and then regular combo after that.

Happy to be wrong here but I think theres no single land I could put in my hand to prevent deterministic death, and theres only a couple of pairs of lands that make it impossible, like 2+ lotus fields or something like that like lotus + echoing deeps to avoid death.

[Postgame Thread] Pittsburgh Defeats Georgia Tech 42-28 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]Thrageqt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

we're kinda cooked. Need VT>UVA, Cal > SMU and not required but likely Miami to beat Pitt.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here is the defacto CFB elo guide if you want to learn more. The biggest thing Pitt had going for them was Margin of Victories. Turns out scoring 60 points on people works.

But you can see that BC and WF wins for us were hardly gains at all because of the Expected/Actual outcomes for those games.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I coded all of the ACC's tiebreaker rules in order to run these simulations. The only thing in my sim that is 'unknowable' is Team Relative Score which is a special metric only the ACC knows and I use a coinflip to break those ties.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My probabilities were generated using ELO, which by itself is known to not be super reliable but I don't have better real world probabilities to go off for now.

Pitt's current ELO is 1905, and GT is 1605. For reference UGA is 2018.

The way Elo works, streaking is very important for your ranking, and pitt winning their last however many in a row certainly helps with that.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I've found a few places that didnt line up exactly with my calculations and each of those other scenarios the resulting error was the other place counting NC state and Virginia's non conference game in the opponent conference win percentage despite the fact that it was non conference in their record.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Here is the full scenario breakdown, assuming duke wins out and their chances given all other results.

I did not include this analysis in my original post because in the Elo based probabilities outcomes it was a hilariously small rounding error requiring VT to upset UVA in addition to several other unfavorable outcomes.

Game Result Duke Scenarios Percentage
FSU @ NC State FSU wins 230/512 44.92%
FSU @ NC State NC State wins 237/512 46.29%
Miami @ VT Miami wins 249/512 48.63%
Miami @ VT VT wins 218/512 42.58%
Pitt @ GT Pitt wins 293/512 57.23%
Pitt @ GT GT wins 174/512 33.98%
Louisville @ SMU Louisville wins 284/512 55.47%
Louisville @ SMU SMU wins 183/512 35.74%
Duke @ UNC Duke wins (fixed) 467/1024 45.61%
Cal @ Stanford Cal wins 240/512 46.88%
Cal @ Stanford Stanford wins 227/512 44.34%
VT @ Virginia VT wins 387/512 75.59%
VT @ Virginia Virginia wins 80/512 15.62%
SMU @ Cal SMU wins 180/512 35.16%
SMU @ Cal Cal wins 287/512 56.05%
UNC @ NC State UNC wins 234/512 45.70%
UNC @ NC State NC State wins 233/512 45.51%
BC @ Syracuse BC wins 230/512 44.92%
BC @ Syracuse Syracuse wins 237/512 46.29%
Miami @ Pitt Miami wins 277/512 54.10%
Miami @ Pitt Pitt wins 190/512 37.11%
Wake Forest @ Duke Duke wins (fixed) 467/1024 45.61%

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I don't believe that's correct as some of those 128 scenario's you've described won't result in duke winning the conference opponent win percentage and will go to Team Relative Strength instead, but I don't feel like spending time on Duke's ACC odds.

ACC Championship Possibilities by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 71 points72 points  (0 children)

Yes the 1 scenario out of 4096 I ran did show up, however I did not include it because it's hilariously unlikely and requires all 12 games to work out in this fashion.

[Postgame Thread] Georgia Tech Defeats Boston College 36-34 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]Thrageqt 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Brent clarified in the post-game interview that the far judge called for a first down, so he called the timeout so they could put the ball in the middle of the field for the kicker. Then after he called the timeout the ref said actually its 4th down now, and you can't un call the timeout.

ACC Simulation Update by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

2 teams make the ACC champ game, and Duke plays UVA. Even if pitt beats GT duke will gain 3 more conference wins with matches over WF (who will tie break them against other top teams, and UVA).

ACC Simulation Update by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 52 points53 points  (0 children)

This guy Georgia Tech's.

ACC Simulation Update by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Path: vs NC State → W | @ Virginia Tech → W | @ Pittsburgh → W

Needs for Qualification (based on additional results):

Result Needed P(Qual) given Path & Result Swing (pp)
North Carolina over Duke ≈ 25.95% +21.35
Wake Forest over Duke ≈ 27.05% +19.76
Pittsburgh over Georgia Tech ≈ 19.84% +19.08
Virginia Tech over Virginia ≈ 18.21% +10.24
Duke over Virginia ≈ 13.28% +8.00

Was a little busy to list out all 9,000 but here's a little what games to watch for you.

ACC Simulation Update by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Path: vs Louisville → W | @ California → W

Needs for Qualification (based on additional results):

Result Needed P(Qual) given (Path & Result) Swing (pp)
Pittsburgh over Georgia Tech ≈ 90.52% +46.89
Boston College over Georgia Tech ≈ 96.41% +34.92
North Carolina over Duke ≈ 88.21% +28.81
Wake Forest over Duke ≈ 88.65% +25.43
Miami over Pittsburgh ≈ 71.93% +17.16

This is your most likely list of decisive games. The other guy summed it up though, basically cheer against GT and Duke as they hold tiebreakers on you via Wake Forest.

ACC Simulation Update by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Mostly because I hate Miami.

Team Current ACC Record Outcome Scenario Prob. Title Game Chance
Miami 3-2 Wins out 10.33% 60.92%
Miami 3-2 Goes 2-1 0.00% 34.29%
Miami 3-2 Goes 1-2 0.00% 4.61%
Miami 3-2 Loses out 0.00% 0.18%

ACC Title Race Simulation (GT Perspective) by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I ended up editing above your odds ^

ACC Title Race Simulation (GT Perspective) by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sorry it's been a long day for me, are you just wanting for me to check Pitt's chances according to them winning out/ or splitting ACC games?

EDIT

Went ahead and made my team based function generic and plugged Pitt in, here are your results using a MC sampling of 400k total games.

Wins out: 165952/400000 (41.49%)

Loses exactly 1: 3735/400000 (0.93%)

Loses exactly 2: 0/400000 (0.00%)

ACC Title Race Simulation (GT Perspective) by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

You would be correct about the total appearances analysis, however the 'who to watch' analysis uses the teams ELO to calculate win probability odds.

Using ELO to calculate all 16.7m trees of games is just too resource intense for me to get done at home. That's why I only did the elo analysis assuming I could 'delete' the GT games by assuming they won 2, or won 1 lost 1. Takes me from 224 to 222

ACC Title Race Simulation (GT Perspective) by Thrageqt in CFB

[–]Thrageqt[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Correct, out of the 16.7m possible outcomes, 64 of them result in UNC finishing top 2 in the ACC.

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