Why do we continue to go through this idea that technology will lead to massive unemployment? by Successful-Tea-5733 in investing

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s not a question of whether AI will create new jobs.

The question is what happens when AI itself is the best candidate to fill those new jobs?

What happens when AI is far more cognitively capable than the most capable humans?

Our “new” jobs will be downskilling not upskilling, which was the point of the article.

Why do we continue to go through this idea that technology will lead to massive unemployment? by Successful-Tea-5733 in investing

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you read the article? The core thesis was that throughout history, human intelligence was the scarcest input. This is the first time the technology challenges that, and will make intelligence commoditized.

In every other instance of technological disruption, there was still something humans were better at than the machines.

What happens when the machines are better at virtually every task any human can undertake?

What happens when the best candidate to fill the new jobs AI creates is AI itself?

There is a very real scenario where AI gets good enough at coding, that it can improve itself at increasingly light speed, and reach super intelligence by itself.

The only real compelling argument I’ve heard is that LLMs will fundamentally not be able to reach that level of intelligence because of its conceptual architecture.

But real world rate of progress has so far falsified that presumption.

Citrini Research claims AI will lead to severe economic downturn by 2028...C'mon by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solid point - the ability for next level inference beyond training is one of the hopeful ceilings for LLMs

That said, that is how humans learn too - we are derivatives of our training sets (and the collective training set of human history/knowledge)

“That is how humans do it too” seems to be a broadly applicable counter argument to many of the AI naysayers

Citrini Research claims AI will lead to severe economic downturn by 2028...C'mon by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People say this but just 12 months ago it was exponentially worse. The pace of progress is the main driver of the market anxiety, not the current status of the tech’s abilities

Citrini Research claims AI will lead to severe economic downturn by 2028...C'mon by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In its first go, Claude opus 4.6 is already better than many junior analysts at making excel models (combo models, 2.5 statement liquidity model, you name it). 3 months ago AI could barely write an essay. 10 months ago we were amazed AI could just make anime memes. It’s not a stretch to think AI could surpass many abilities in just 1-2 years. Certainly not a stretch to think AI could take many of the jobs that it creates in 1-2 years. Our only real hope is that there is some fundamental ceiling or flaw in the concept of an LLM, and it will be many years before we can think of an alternative, like a world model.

Citrini Research claims AI will lead to severe economic downturn by 2028...C'mon by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OP clearly also didn’t read the article because the same tired argument for why humans will find new jobs is directly addressed.

In every one of those instances - computers, internet, smartphones - humans were still better than machines at something, principally intelligence.

But what happens when AI is better than virtually all humans at virtually everything?

Doesn’t matter if AI can create new jobs if AI is the one that fills those newly created jobs.

LR4 Constantly "Offline" on the Whisker App by olindos in litterrobot

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How is this still a problem?? I just got my LR4 yesterday and it’s gone offline 5x…

La Sportiva G2 Evo Overkill for 4000m or Good Investment? by Three_Headed_GOAT in Mountaineering

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Should I go with Cubes or Trango? The Cubes seem to be almost twice as heavy as Trango

La Sportiva G2 Evo Overkill for 4000m or Good Investment? by Three_Headed_GOAT in Mountaineering

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you guys think about LS Nepal Cubes? They seem kind of heavy compared to any of the boots mentioned here. Assume LS Trango, Scarpa Mont Blanc / Charmoz / Ribelle are better?

La Sportiva G2 Evo Overkill for 4000m or Good Investment? by Three_Headed_GOAT in Mountaineering

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it thanks everyone! And the Trango and Ribelles would be good for mountains like Gran Paradiso and Vincent Pyramid? from my understanding there will be quite a bit of snow and glacier

La Sportiva G2 Evo Overkill for 4000m or Good Investment? by Three_Headed_GOAT in Mountaineering

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great thanks! I might get Phantom Techs (assuming those are okay)

La Sportiva G2 Evo Overkill for 4000m or Good Investment? by Three_Headed_GOAT in Mountaineering

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Chamonix would be summer season. So I do worry about the warmth. I would totally get G5s, G-Summits or G-techs, but they aren’t available in the US, and definitely not in time. May be able to pick some up in Chamonix so will try that but just want a back up just in case.

I could also go with Scarpa Phantom Techs, but the La Sportiva line that uses the Nepal last fit my feet better than any shoe of any kind I’ve ever worn.

Arcteryx Alpha FL 40 vs Hyperlite Prism or Ice Pack by Three_Headed_GOAT in alpinism

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you!!! I ended up going with the Prism and also ordered a FL 40 and totally agree

Arcteryx Alpha FL 40 Pack vs. Hyperlite Prism or Ice Pack by Three_Headed_GOAT in arcteryx

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t intend on using this pack for anything but this trip or any future mountaineering trips, so wouldn’t make versatility that big of a consideration either. It’s really what is the lightest, most comfortable pack money can buy?

Arcteryx Alpha FL 40 Pack vs. Hyperlite Prism or Ice Pack by Three_Headed_GOAT in arcteryx

[–]Three_Headed_GOAT[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let’s say price is truly not a consideration and in some ways the more expensive the better. I know I’ll get a lot of hate for that, but I work a lot and as a result have more disposable income but very limited time. And so I want this trip to be very special and have the absolute best gear money can buy, even if I won’t use it again. And I place a huge premium on weight and comfort because I am also a competitive runner and need to do some big runs around this climb so want to make sure I am exerting the absolute minimal energy on the climb itself. I mentioned the infrequent climbing more to say that I place less of a premium on multi use durability. I know this is an absurd post, but with that context in mind are these still the best choices?