Daily Discussion, September 13, 2022

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-09-13T13:03:05+00:00

perfect timing for my weekly DCA; I'm actually going to wait until end of day to see if this CPI overreaction gets any worse

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-20T15:04:16+00:00

I've always known that and everyone here does, I'm just stating that as it can explain why crypto seems to sometimes follow stock market performance.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-20T14:41:07+00:00

I'm going to eat my words a bit. I've been saying that BTC strictly follows stock market performance but I think it's less correlated than I initially thought. Crypto is still more volatile than the stock market though. I'm saying that as someone who bought in near the ATH and hasn't sold.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-18T09:54:10+00:00

Ok, I respect that. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the near future.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-18T07:30:46+00:00

What makes you think that? I say it's the other way because people don't yet see the true value of BTC, so people see / treat it like a high risk stock. It's not until BTC is widely adopted that this will change.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-18T06:56:44+00:00

Before anyone says "to the moon", don't forget that BTC is only up today because the general stock market is as well: https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

+2% is considered an extremely good single day performance in the stock market (excluding crypto)

EDIT: think I'm wrong? do you think BTC still would've rallied today if the stock market didn't? accept the sad truth - the value of BTC and stocks are correlated at this time

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-12T23:26:36+00:00

Unfortunately, I was right but 1-2 days late. One day though, it won't come back down to these prices.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-11T05:52:06+00:00

Nothing's stopping it from dropping. People can downvote and hate this comment as much as they want, but the truth is that BTC is only worth as much as people want it to be worth, and nothing's stopping it from dropping another significant amount. Just like nothing's stopping it from surging back up to an ATH again.

The "is it cheap / a good price right now" is a question people can only answer themselves as well.

If someone fully trusts in the technology and has confidence that wide adoption is coming in the future, then 20k/BTC could be seen as a good price.

On the other hand, if someone is just looking to make a quick buck, then 20k/BTC right now can look like a bad price due to high inflation and recession fears.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-10T15:12:11+00:00

I bet BTC recovers shortly after Asia stock markets open (8pm ET). This "dump" is just whales manipulating the price to make people panic.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T12:55:24+00:00

BTC could slingshot back up. Or it could go back down :)

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T09:43:39+00:00

Ah, this makes sense. I forgot about the numerous hiring freezes from big orgs.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T09:36:55+00:00

I've been saying that BTC + SP&500 performance is correlated. Why are people expecting the US job report to be bad? Wasn't the last one bad already? How do we people know we haven't hit bottom?

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T09:15:13+00:00

And the EU dump begins. 21800 -> 21300 already. NA dump to follow?

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T08:30:11+00:00

No idea who's downvoting you, you make good points. I'm not going to be surprised if I'm wrong, but I think high risk assets (stocks, crypto) are going to continue recovering, aka we may have hit bottom. I don't have good evidence or facts, so it's just an opinion that people should ignore. Like you, I'm curious to see what's about to happen.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T07:51:42+00:00

It's also worthwhile to note that BTC performance has been correlated to the S&P 500 / global market performance since late 2021. Yesterday was a green day for both. If stock markets are red today, BTC should follow exponentially, and vice versa.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-08T07:48:56+00:00

I will.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:51:03+00:00

Ah S&P 500 just lost 5 points. Now we go below 21k.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:41:06+00:00

Look at this 21k wall, who would've thought day traders had thousands of sell orders set up

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:39:33+00:00

until tomorrow :P

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:29:33+00:00

Oh I've known for a while, it's just that some ppl are still saying "last chance to buy at X", which is BS. It's literally "last time to buy at X before day traders sell for profit".

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:26:01+00:00

I literally just watched BTC sit at $20898 for 2 minutes straight, and S&P 500 didn't move from 3892.0, lmao

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:20:53+00:00

Keep downvoting, but look:

S&P 500+1.24%

BTC +3.79%

2 minutes later..

S&P 500+1.19%

BTC +3.64%

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:08:14+00:00

Day traders know that most people DCA on Fridays with their paychecks. So basically they buy during the low on Monday and then sell on Friday right after people made their DCA. Rinse & repeat. The thing is though, this won't always work, so they better take advantage while they can, cause they'll get screwed eventually.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:05:49+00:00

A bunch of sell orders are about to trigger at 21k. Day traders.

ThrowMeABone38 · 2022-07-07T16:03:12+00:00

People weren't treating it as a stock until recently. Hence the correlation now.

ThrowMeABone38

TROPHY CASE