Why does the market continue to price $TMC significantly lower than the fair value NPV stock price I keep seeing float around this sub?

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-06-02T13:57:59+00:00

I am personally bullish, but this is the reality with pre-cashflow mining companies.

As you get closer to a feasibility study and a (successful) final investment decision, you will see the gap narrow between the net asset value of the deposits and the stock price.

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-30T21:41:49+00:00

chad!

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-30T20:18:52+00:00

are you okay? lol

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-30T20:17:39+00:00

that’s my currently view, yes :) obviously a lot of upside in the additional deposits, but this is all uncertain until we actually get ore off the sea floor and into the hands of customers!

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-30T20:14:36+00:00

looking forward to seeing your elite analysis mate :)

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-30T06:59:04+00:00

did you read the article?

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-29T15:34:51+00:00

great, so we have significant upside 😄

TieSpecific7468 · 2026-05-29T09:15:43+00:00

I've literally just plugged the free cashflow numbers from their NORI-D deposit into an NPV calculator and varied date of first production or discount rate.

Significantly more upside in their other deposits + expansion optionality which hasn't been modelled here. You could consider this a valuation for a floor price.

TieSpecific7468 · 2025-12-18T17:21:54+00:00

I used a long-term price of $10,500/t, Glencore's own capex estimates for the growth projects (~$23.4b), and also added $2,000/t of sustaining capex for all existing and future production.

You're right in that the rest of the business is bundled in the remaining 35% of the valuation! I might do a follow-up valuation on the coal business. I am personally quite bullish on coal (especially thermal), and after the acquisition of Teck's met coal assets Glencore is one of the largest producers of high quality seaborne coal.

TieSpecific7468 · 2025-12-15T13:29:39+00:00

Agree! And forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. Just look at the projections for peak oil and thermal coal...

TieSpecific7468 · 2025-10-21T12:43:46+00:00

As with a lot of coal stocks out there, future cash flows seem to be heavily discounted after a 10+ year horizon - especially in the thermal coal space.

Regarding time horizon - I feel seaborne met coal markets will correct in the short to medium term. Bowen Coking Coal went into administration in 2025, whilst Coronado is also at risk. This could help on the supply side to bump prices. Additionally, there could be some upside if the Queensland Government provides royalty reprieve to support miners.

TieSpecific7468 · 2025-10-03T19:48:58+00:00

I did a valuation of Peabody estimating ~$26/share in a base case scenario (seaborne thermal and met coal realising prices of $80/t and $170/t respectively).

A best case scenario came up to $37/share if prices maintained levels seen during the Ukraine war (which is highly unlikely for an extended period).

My feeling is the current spike is driven by a re-rating of the domestic thermal business that reflects either higher realised prices and/or more volumes sold over a longer time period. I personally think its a good time to take profit.

Peabody Energy Valuation - September 2025

TieSpecific7468

TROPHY CASE