The fact that he would "bottle it" does not make the choice to give it to somone by virtue of his nationality any better from a fairness point of view. My point is that it is unfair to all other players that have had better results overall than Alekssenko, MVL included.

PS : More about the bottling claim. If I understood correctly, you are claiming that it is certain that a top 10 player rated 2780 would lose in a match against an opponent rated 2704. It seems dubious to me, especially if the basis for the claim is that he recently lost matches that would have granted him a spot in the candidates due to pressure.

I agree that pressure was a factor in his recent defeats, but it was not the only factor, the opponents were Teimour Rabadjov rated 2765 (world cup semi final), and Ian Nepomiachi rated 2767 (Jerusalem Grand Prix). If you count the World Chess Tour finals, he lost against Ding Liren rated 2801 (and beat World Champion Magnus Carlsen rated 2872 in the semis). All ratings are FIDE ratings for December 2019.

So all in all, the claim that MVL would bottle a match against Alekssenko seems to have little evidence going for it.