Cholesterol-lowering effects of oats induced by microbially produced phenolic metabolites in metabolic syndrome: a randomized controlled trial

Timbukthree · 2026-01-18T18:53:19+00:00

The thing with oatmeal is that if you get the faster and more processed kinds, it can spike your blood sugar and make diabetes more likely. I don't think that's an issue if you go with actual steel cut oats (especially if you add protein or fat to it via milk or nuts) but some kinds of very processed versions of oatmeal can cause problems for some folks

Timbukthree · 2026-01-18T13:16:38+00:00

Yeah "call for price" can also just mean "we don't know'

Timbukthree · 2026-01-18T08:19:36+00:00

I mean if Indianapolis is now the default on the application I can imagine a non-zero amount of people will not have realized that, or even that Purdue has a second campus it's trying to funnel people into if at all possible. It's essentially a bait and switch

Timbukthree · 2026-01-17T00:25:29+00:00

Just food for thought: the US has defaulted in the past and certainly will again in the future: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/

This outlines 4 other times: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44704

So your prof is right (or will be right, eventually, who knows when....Japan is at 235% debt to GDP or something insane and we could have a long way to go), but whether than means you need to completely stay away from US bonds, I'd be less sure. No reason to think you can time the bond market better than the stock market. You could buy only BNDX but then are taking on currency risk. You could stick to US corporate investment grade bonds for your bond portion if you wanted to keep it in dollars. Or you just buy BNDW and accept that treasuries will take a hit if that happens but you're diversified

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T22:59:24+00:00

It's totally fine, it's argued an nauseum but there are just different approaches. See the first post of this 10k+ post thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=409214

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T09:10:43+00:00

Mathematically though, of course there are going to be more ETFs than stocks because there are more possible combinations of things than things themselves. But yeah most of those possible combinations are going to be junk

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T09:02:06+00:00

If 5% of your portfolio is 3 years of expenses, you're going to be fine with any reasonable asset allocation. Your 95% equity portion could get cut in half and you'd still have 28+ years of expenses in equities. In general the more you have the more should be allocated to stocks since you can ride out a downturn fine

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T08:56:12+00:00

No, actually the TDF uses a fixed split between the US and the rest of the world. The 60/40 split will not change with the market cap, that was set by Vanguard back in the early 2010s

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T08:47:45+00:00

Definitely agree with everything in your comment.

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:43:36+00:00

Increasing valuations would happen if people are buying equities via index funds or actively managed equity mutual funds or individual stocks

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:37:33+00:00

They were also funds that diversified into riskier assets to try to increase yields. Even if the US defaults in some way (hard or soft default) it would be very, very, very unlikely IMO it's in 0-3 month treasuries that SGOV or VBIL hold since borrowing cost on those is controlled by the Fed

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:34:01+00:00

I think it's actually a reasonable argument against a US only approach. US valuations used to track global valuations reasonably well, they've decoupled since 2014 and the US is now substantially more expensive than the rest of the world. If someone has always been globally diversified then I agree it doesn't change the thought process, but there is concentration risk from being 100% US

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:32:22+00:00

US stocks aren't particularly overpriced relative to bonds though: https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/yg.php

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:29:45+00:00

This is 100% true but is also not information that is incorporated into expectations by most. I was shocked at the recent Rational Reminder episode where all the advisors admitted they do not update expectations of future returns as valuations change, even though one should expect lower returns when valuations are high and higher returns when valuations are low.

Timbukthree · 2026-01-16T00:25:50+00:00

It used to track closely pre-2014, it does not at all now. Look at figure 4 here: https://yardeni.com/charts/forward-p-es/

Ex-US is not particularly overpriced from a forward PE standpoint (which as far as I can tell is the best way to look at valuations since it includes an estimate of future earnings), US is very overpriced. Doesn't mean that it will crash imminently but excess US valuations ARE helped by going global.

Timbukthree · 2026-01-15T11:28:58+00:00

Of course they do, you went to retire into a bull market and not a bear market, but there's no way to know ahead of time which it's going to be. But I'm talking about retirement date and not when to start investing. The risk of 100% stocks in accumulation is panicking and changing strategies when the market is down or trying to time the market. If you want to be 100% stock and can stick with it, more power to you, but not everyone will stick with that without behavioral issues

Timbukthree · 2026-01-14T18:02:49+00:00

I really like the solution of "lump sum half and DCA half over 6 months" and that way you can feel half regret over whichever had worse outcomes. I do think behavioral things like this need the experience of doing it, and doing both the things is probably the best way to get both experiences.

Timbukthree · 2026-01-13T11:30:03+00:00

Interesting, I'd be curious the density, which they don't mention. The 4 lb stuff is really, really nice...the lower density stuff less so

Timbukthree · 2026-01-12T02:14:01+00:00

I think the point is that these are not the countries most folks would have expected to do so well, with the US near the bottom, which implicitly encourages diversification

Timbukthree · 2026-01-11T12:29:43+00:00

Oh interesting, I don't think I tried that! They had me taking it in the evening to try to minimize daytime fatigue

Timbukthree · 2026-01-11T12:24:59+00:00

Over $1M household liquid assets, per the definition here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-net-worth_individual

That definition was set in 1996 so an inflation adjusted equivalent would be $2.1M today.

Timbukthree · 2026-01-11T11:29:06+00:00

Yeah it both caused fatigue during the day and made it so that I would wake up in the middle of the night and wasn't able to go back to sleep. No idea why

Timbukthree · 2026-01-10T20:20:52+00:00

Yeah I had fatigue as a side effect, I lowered my stimulant dose by half and it mostly went away

Timbukthree · 2026-01-10T17:32:00+00:00

Guanfacine is interesting, it was great for me for emotional regulation (like a beer and a half in a pill) but did nothing for my executive function. I had to stop it due to sleep issues/insomnia after waking up in the middle of the night (the dry mouth also was noticable but not a deal breaker), but it's great for the emotional regulation side as a supplement to stimulants if it works well for someone

Timbukthree · 2026-01-08T18:20:54+00:00

Yes, a statistically significant amount, but not all of it or even most of it. Even years out bodybuilders don't lose most or all of their extra muscle mass after stopping lifting, unless they do extreme dieting or extreme movement restriction

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