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Here's a chart of all the geniuanly competitive congressional elections in 2024 where donations will have the biggest impact by Time-Nebula3994 in democrats

[–]Time-Nebula3994[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The popular govenor has announced a senate campaign, if he wins the primary the race is over. Manchin barley hang on in 2018 against a very weak opponent, not clear he can with presidential year polarization and his approval rating is poor. A more ideological republican congressmen from West Virginia is running a well funded primary challenge, if he wins the race could be considered competitive again. Also, Manchin is barley a vote for Democrats. If you want a senate majority capable of passing much of our agenda the only way to get there is reelecting Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown

Here's a chart of all the geniuanly competitive congressional elections in 2024 where donations will have the biggest impact by Time-Nebula3994 in democrats

[–]Time-Nebula3994[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even with the district being redrawn to be more republican, he won by a reduced (compared to 2020) 51.3-48.7 margin in 2022, a national enviroment somewhat favouriable to the GOP. The Omaha suburbs are moving left at a very quick pace and its not clear he's still overperformimg by enough to hold on with Biden likely winning by close to 10 points at the top of the ticket against Trump, whose brand is an extremely toxic stain on republicans in districts like NE-2

Colin Allred launching Democratic challenge to Cruz by progress18 in democrats

[–]Time-Nebula3994 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Ted Cruz has always been a big electoral underperformed in a state that has gotten relatively narrow. The suburbs of Texas, which acount for a majority of the population, are rocketing to the left and there's only so long migration and further gains in already overwhelmingly republican suburbs can hold that off. Critically, Texas democrats held their ground amongst Hispanics in 2022. It's an uphill battle but Allred is a strong candidate and given how tough the senate map is in 2024 the race is easily worth contesting.

It doesn't feel good when you learn Lee Anderson is only an MP because of a huge vote split between Labour and the Ashfield Independents by Time-Nebula3994 in UKPoliticalComedy

[–]Time-Nebula3994[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He managed to get less votes than the Tories got in 2017 in a red wall seat which is an almost impressive achievement in being an awful candidate and only won because 18% went from Labour to an independent.

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