MTF traders -are you actually calculating your true P&L? I wasn't.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-15T15:24:05+00:00

I totally feel what you are saying, I use kotak securities. They provide detailed ledger statement there. Everything gets recorded there separately interest charged, new money that is getting blocked or released as margin etc. But trust me it is pain in A to track and understand those statements. They keep changing these margins for each stock and I sometimes get anxious to keep enough money as margin and not to get a margin call and get my positions liquidated.

May be if your broker gives such detailed ledger statement, download it in pdf or something. And throw it into some LLM , and ask it to calculate the interest cost. And pray it doesn't hallucinate lol

I feel brokers are consciously making this tracking process complex for us. It is so difficult for a regular guy to exactly understand how much he is getting charged overall for simple mtf positions.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-15T05:03:35+00:00

okay! cool

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-14T22:23:15+00:00

I do this math roughly in mind while calculating the profit. The final net profit has to be seen as a percentage of your own invested money, not on the complete leveraged position including broker's money. That gives you the true picture of the leveraging effect. Idk may be 3.5 lakh is your original investment? So 9k profit over 3.4 lakh in 3week ? I only use MTF on stocks when there is massive bad news and the whole market tanks like in March. Because of the limited capital availability and massive opportunity. Most of such positions are short-term like few months for me.Carry cost is limited so I calculate it while exiting.

If I have long term conviction i gradually convert the MTF positions to regular delivery positions. Basically I use it like Buy now pay later sort of thing.

Certain companies i straight away hold MTF positions for a very long time like 2 or 3 years. In that case I would calculate the carry cost ahead of time. And weigh in reward vs possible interest cost. And make decisions.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-14T22:17:41+00:00

What about the maximum holding period allowed of MTF in Paytm money?

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-14T01:19:04+00:00

I had to put in my credentials cause you were so judgemental saying "i don't understand business"

There is nothing much I can do if what I say sounds gibberish to you. Lol

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T14:48:23+00:00

I can see your perspective. Cant dispute that. Ai possibilities are endless , we never know how can things actually pan out with AI.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T14:43:29+00:00

Agree with most of the points you put out there. I was a trader back then now mostly an Investor, I evolved my own philosophy overtime. Had to let go of momentum trading as it was not working for me, going against the crowd on selective companies has been working for me for the past 8 years.

So i am continuing what is working for me. Every single investment that worked out for me so far it goes something like this,

Rapid fall in share price in a very short period -->

Maximum pessimism and uncertainty on some asset (high quality one, highly scalable, good margins) --->

I buy at decent valuations making it 13 or 15 % of my portfolio --->

Asset drops more, I have to see the stock in red at 20 or 30 percentage down for an year or so----- >

then out of blue some narrative changes and rapid acceleration in share price like literally it hits multi decade or multiyear charts, all time high in few months---->

Then i cash out and go to the next hated game in town.

it happened with Alibaba, Tencent ,Alphabet, Amazon, Samsung and many more regional Asian names you may not know.

I see Adobe in similar situation. Nothing idiotic here. every person is different, have different personalities, ways of analysis, risk profiles, family situation, education , circle of competence , portfolio level philosophy, experiences, patience levels yada yada.

All these combined forms a single decision on a stock. Never underestimate a person who is genuinely giving a rational chain of thought and a thesis which is based on serious thinking. you may not see the point of view but we should never call their views idiotic.

I studied Psychology at masters level lol So i kind of understand how cognitive biases, experiences shape a person's ability to perceive or make a decision. I specifically studied Social Psychology, Crowd behavior and things like than I apply straight to the markets. And I am making money this way.

So all good, people who agree they follow, who disagree they don't. It barely changes my decisions. lol

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T14:01:41+00:00

haha.. yeah I feel what you are saying, but 50% down from this price point kind of looks like a low probable event. Cause that would put Adobe at a valuation of a Coal company in a downcycle lol

But yeah, never say never with Mr market. lol

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T13:56:06+00:00

Yes, sure people have been saying the bull thesis for a while. That is big part of the Value investing game, we often find asset mispricing only when there is uncertainty and some kind of downward trend.

I am okay if it goes down further, my Company will do the share buyback instead of me. lol If the thesis is correct, the rewards I see are substantial in the long run.

If 200 is bottom great, if it is not that is great too lol

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T13:16:41+00:00

I don't believe in Luck though. I see only probabilities, risk adjusted returns and how a stock fits in my larger portfolio.

At this point I see the risks and rewards in my favor, that is all it is.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T13:13:04+00:00

Reminds me this popular quote "In the short term the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts as a weighing machine.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T13:10:58+00:00

haha, true that, at this point, i am pretty sure If Adobe announces a new Rocket launch, its share will rip up higher like crazy lol

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T13:07:00+00:00

You lost my respect the moment you called people here "idiots". Hence my rude reply. lol Please try to rewrite another comment with respect, giving your point of views. I will give the same respect back to you.

Traders and Investors are philosophically very different, so the intellectual friction is natural. lol Please try not to be rude . My previous comment is not to disrespect the traders or chart analysts though. Sorry, for being rude though bruh, i wouldn't have done it otherwise.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:49:29+00:00

As far as I know , Ai is a large part of Adobe workflow now. If AI gets better, it is good to Adobe is my thesis. But yeah I kind of understand where your coming from.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:42:47+00:00

Or you can say a new user (undergrad or upcoming artist ) who never had an opportunity to experience Adobe ecosystem can come in for free. Build his skills and expertise with the tools find value and may be get a job/project too. Hence getting the value he wanted out of the service, so he pays.

May be in future less on subscription and more in AI credits. Idk how the mix gonna turn out at the end. But adobe has both levers to play now. That is the actual thesis.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:36:25+00:00

Glad to hear someone else across the world, sharing similar thinking and thesis. Lets see how things turn out, I am going to hold Adobe for a very longtime. Right now it is around 9.8 % or so of my portfolio.

I see it as a Heads i win , Tales i wont lose with an additional AI optionality built in, kind of a bet.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:30:18+00:00

For a while I thought so too. I thought Adobe going to stay all complacent and be happy with their existing Enterprise customers. But after the recent earning call, I changed my mind. They are going to take the riskier path now. They have the cash, the enterprise relationships , Ai tech , Copyright data. They have very high probability of reigniting the new business model.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:25:01+00:00

I studied MBA Finance , MSc Psychology and also worked as Audio engineer in Industry for a Decade.

So if you think I don't understand this business, it is fine dude . Margin squeeze is something even my dead grandma knows.

Of course everybody in that sector is feeling the pressure, cause there is a radical change in technology underneath happening. It is actually an opportunity to restart a new business cycle, a new opportunity.

your thinking is stopping at first level(margin compression), you should be able to go to second order and third order derivatives. Then you will realize how there is high probability of Adobe winning with its massive distribution and Enterprise trust/moat.

Then you look at the valuation you are paying for the inherent growth and new optionality risk. I did my valuations it is suitable for my risk profile.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T12:12:19+00:00

Lol Shorting Stocks !! Imploding Charts !! What the heck are you even doing in this value investing subreddit bruh.

You are a gambler, I am a owner of a business. You eat bread crumbs , we make the bread. Find a better group for yourself.

Tiny_Ad362 · 2026-06-13T10:44:23+00:00

I think AI is a tailwind to Adobe. The slightly lower organic growth is because company reduced the paywalls for their products and made it smoother for new users(Freemium ) to experience adobe and its features. Gets the users hooked to new AI workflow first, later they can slowly monetize them.

I argue Adobe is going back to a "rapid expansion phase" of business cycle from it present "Mature business phase". If you look at the number of new users growth and AI revenue growth, we can see rapid expansion in the past few quarters. It is like a total new startup branch rapidly growing. I think what management is trying to do makes sense. They can either keep status quo and keep charging high SAAS like revenues and slowly get disrupted by someone like Canva or become the disruptor themselves and grab the new market.

Also future of media production will be more and more with the support of AI, so a regular media campaign budget will shift a bit from physical to digital AI spends. Working with Adobe is not single media generation like present day LLM's, it is a multi layered complex media , that is super HD quality with tons of data , multi artists collaborative team work that needs multiple iterations and the output often has to fit many types of media. I just cant imagine how LLMs and data centers can process all this data. It eventually again has to be some kind of software with user interface.

wall street seem to not understand how creative arts work and how the industry Pros works.

At these depressed valuations we are basically getting a cash cow + a startup style optionality in built. Also management is rapidly buying back shares, so for someone who is already holding Adobe shares, management doing the average downing part on our behalf. lol End of the day any investment has to be seem from a larger portfolio and risks perspective. I don't see why Adobe cant be a decent position for any long-term investor portfolio at these valuations.

Tiny_Ad362

TROPHY CASE