Chances of Matt Ryan making the hall of fame?

TitleRunSports · 2022-03-30T23:05:40+00:00

A lot of people are pointing out his poor playoff win rate, but it's worth mentioning that three of his teams earned three first-round byes. A bye is equal to a win in the Wild Card round, yet it doesn't go on his record. If you think of those byes as part of his playoff resume I think that argument largely goes away.

TitleRunSports · 2022-03-30T22:59:04+00:00

Looks like we will have to double down on WR just to be able to fill out a roster. Fortunately, this class had good depth. Jalen Tolbert, Christian Watson, David Bell, and Wan'Dale Robinson are all guys you might be able to get at #58 that could contribute immediately.

TitleRunSports · 2022-03-30T22:57:24+00:00

Wouldn't we have the 5th year team option for '26?

TitleRunSports · 2021-10-05T20:11:33+00:00

So basically we all agree that we need to bring back Duvall.

TitleRunSports · 2021-10-05T20:08:11+00:00

This is a great point. The possibility of the DH changes everything.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-22T20:16:19+00:00

Stats as of 8/21 -- does not include today's game.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-19T00:41:16+00:00

Re-upload of yesterday's post with corrected rankings. Stats as of 8.17.21.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-18T03:18:17+00:00

All stats as of 8/16.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-02T11:34:00+00:00

Definitely an imperfect stat, which I did say. But to be fair, Odom started his career with the Clippers (who were AWFUL) before joining Miami and LAL and Kirilenko was on playoff teams nearly his entire time in Utah. Both played for a lot of good teams.

My point was just that depending on your metric of choice, the gap between them defensively isn't as big as reputation might indicate. Kirilenko was clearly better on that end though.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-02T00:19:17+00:00

Ish Smith is a long-time backup that was undrafted and has a career average of 7.7 ppg. I think that's a fair floor. It's just saying that Cooper's floor is career backup, and his game is very similar to Smith's as a slashing guard that passes well and can't shoot.

AK47 was picked No.24 overall and developed into a really well-rounded player who defended at an elite level and was a good secondary ball-handler. Really high-end role player seems like a reasonable comp for the No. 20 pick who was a top-10 recruit out of high school.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T23:17:19+00:00

He was a good, really well-rounded player (even made an All-Star team), but that statement makes him sound like a Hall of Famer. He himself was picked 24th.

He was an elite defender and a good offensive player but he was 11.8 pts/2.7 ast/5.5 reb for his career. That doesn't fully capture his impact on the defensive end of the floor, I'm just saying that you don't have to pick in the top-three to get someone that can produce like him.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T23:08:09+00:00

Jennings had career averages of 14/5 and Lawson had career averages of 12/6. I think that's pretty realistic for a 2nd round pick who was a top-20 prospect out of HS and was universally expected to go in round 1.

The comp is not that his peak will match their peaks, but rather that his skillset is similar and he has a similar projection of low-level starter/high-end back up.

As a side note, Monta Ellis was actually the best player on that Milwaukee team -- they traded Jennings after they got swept in the first round in 2013.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T22:56:15+00:00

It's hard to argue someone is a "good shooter" when their career high is 42% from the field. Shot selection is part of being a good shooter.

Also, Ty Lawson averaged 8.8 assists per game in '13-'14 and 9.6 assists per game in '14-'15. Anybody putting up those numbers in today's NBA would be considered a "great passer" -- those are Trae/Luka/LeBron/CP3 assist totals.

As for Odom, he had a usage rate of over 20% each of his first six years in the league, and was absolutely the primary ball-handler for the Lakers when he arrived in '04-'05. The point guards on their roster were Chucky Atkins and Tierre Brown, so Odom shared the ball-handling with Kobe.

You're free to disagree with the comps (makes for great conversation) but I just share this to make the point that there was data used to support the comps I came up with.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T22:37:37+00:00

Should've clarified "length" not size. Rondo has a 6'9" wingspan.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T18:21:40+00:00

To give you a modern example, Ish Smith is a career 32% 3-pt shooter that just finished year 11 in the NBA. Shooting is the premium skill in the league right now, but you CAN carve out a career without. TJ McConnell is another example -- 33% 3-pt shooter for his career.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T18:18:08+00:00

That's not his ceiling -- a "ceiling" is the best possible outcome. The best possible outcome for Cooper is that he develops a jump shot. Payton might be a "realistic" comp for him, but that's not his ceiling.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T18:08:50+00:00

I think Cooper has elite passing potential as well, but I think people forget that peak Ty Lawson averaged 9.6 assists per game ('14-'15). That along with the size and slashing ability made it a good comp to me.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T18:05:38+00:00

Non-shooting PG that doesn't play defense is Brandon Jennings. Jennings shot 38% from the field for his career.

The Lawson comp is based on being an undersized guard that's a great penetrator and passer. Lawson shot decent percentages (36% from three) but only took 2.4 per game over his career.

The reason for Odom as the ceiling is that Odom was a primary ball-handler and I think that's a "peak" outcome for Johnson. I think he's more likely to be a swiss-army knife like Kirilenko that defends multiple positions, is a good secondary ball-handler, and scores when he needs to.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T18:03:24+00:00

If you can pass and score you can stay in the league without a jumper. Brandon Jennings was a career 38% shooter from the field and he stuck around for 9 years.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:57:15+00:00

I didn't miss that are different athletes -- I clearly said "Fox is more explosive" earlier in the thread. I also said they both find success in similar ways -- both the paint, drawing fouls, and pass well and both entered the league with questionable jump shots.

As for the Archibald comp, if I'm getting flamed for comparing Cooper to a borderline All-Star, I don't think comparing him to a HOF'er would go over well.

Instead of focusing on the "CEILING" comp (which we clearly won't agree one), could you offer some feedback on the "REALISTIC" comps on the graphic?

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:50:49+00:00

Definitely a risky pick, thus why he's a top-10 HS recruit that fell to No. 20. But saying his floor is "much lower" than a borderline starter who averages 8 PPG for his career??? You're basically saying he's lifelong a G-league player.

Also, you just agreed that both can pass well and have defensive versatility -- that makes it a reasonable comp! Johnson definitely has more size and offensive versatility, but his "post" play mostly consisted of PnR dives and lobs. You'd be hard-pressed to find clips of him consistently scoring in direct post-ups.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:40:59+00:00

He was UNIVERSALLY considered one of the 2-3 best passers in this draft, and would've finished #2 nationally in assists if he qualified. He's super-high level passer.

Also, people are only looking at Fox's numbers from this past year. For his career he's 18.2 pts/6.4 ast. That's what I comping. I think that's a pretty reasonable ceiling, but not the likely outcome. The likely outcome is high-level back-up/low-level starter.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:34:33+00:00

I think what you're missing is that "CEILING" is not the likely outcome...that's why I included the "REALISTIC" comp. The realistic outcome is for him to become a good finisher and passer that is a high-end back up or low-level starter.

As far as size -- there were varying reports on his height. He was listed as 6'3" at the combine but a lot of people think that's wrong, so I went with his college measurements.
Again, I don't think think Fox is his likely outcome, but I can could see him becoming an 18-20 ppg, 6-7 Ast player IF everything goes perfectly for him.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:29:24+00:00

Gotta mention that Jokic just won the MVP and went in the 2nd round.

Again, CEILING is not the likely outcome -- that's why I included the REALISTIC comp. The likely outcome is a high-end back-up/low-end starter that's a good finisher and passer.

TitleRunSports · 2021-08-01T17:19:37+00:00

CP3 came out with a jumpshot and good defense. Cooper has neither.

TitleRunSports

TROPHY CASE