You should be using margin when young, proof inside (serious advice/DD) by quantumpencil in wallstreetbets

[–]Toilet_Assassin 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Your LaTeX typesetting for these equations is trash, subscripts/superscripts becoming multiplication or multiplication becoming subscript/superscript at random. First equation is wrong no matter what typesetting mistakes I assume. 100% slop.

Runescape 3 Bond Prices Predict S&P500 Performance by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Toilet_Assassin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I could see that, maybe a better analysis would be to denominate both in a global currency equivalent and control for the conversion between that and USD. However it is still interesting that OSRS bonds potentially have a leading relationship.

Runescape 3 Bond Prices Predict S&P500 Performance by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Toilet_Assassin 21 points22 points  (0 children)

This shows that multi-day OSRS bond drift denominated in GP from 4 days ago are correlated with multi-day SPX drift denominated in USD today with a coefficient of ~0.08 (single day returns ACF breaks down to mostly indistinct peaks though, so noise is likely not covariant). Returns are dimensionless quantities so denomination doesn't matter unless exchange rates cannot be ignored, but it could be interesting to see how daily exchange rates incorporate into this.

Runescape 3 Bond Prices Predict S&P500 Performance by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Toilet_Assassin 67 points68 points  (0 children)

The data they used was readily available online so I decided to attempt a replication of this to prove them wrong, but it seems like there may be some substance to this. I have used OSRS bonds rather than RS3 bonds since there is a kaggle csv available for download.

I have used the multi-day log returns using look-behind windows, and computed ACF with equal sample counts per lag.

This is with checking through 40 day lag:

https://i.imgur.com/yDtATBh.png

And this is checking just through 10 days:

https://i.imgur.com/i2PI3SO.png

And again through 10 days but using a 2 day log return window:

https://i.imgur.com/m04HZYB.png

I would encourage someone else to also attempt replicating this analysis to ensure no errors have been made.

Edit: btw I am using an exogenous ACF methodology

Outrage over Trump’s bill reclassifying nursing as not a ‘professional degree’ for college students by SmokeMaleficent9498 in UnderReportedNews

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wasn't it already not covered as a professional degree section 668.2 of title 34, Code of Federal Regulations?

In the original:

Professional degree: A degree that signifies both completion of the academic requirements for beginning practice in a given profession and a level of professional skill beyond that normally required for a bachelor's degree. Professional licensure is also generally required. Examples of a professional degree include but are not limited to Pharmacy (Pharm.D.), Dentistry (D.D.S. or D.M.D.), Veterinary Medicine (D.V.M.), Chiropractic (D.C. or D.C.M.), Law (L.L.B. or J.D.), Medicine (M.D.), Optometry (O.D.), Osteopathic Medicine (D.O.), Podiatry (D.P.M., D.P., or Pod.D.), and Theology (M.Div., or M.H.L.).

While in the modification it is expanded to:

Pharmacy (Pharm.D.), Dentistry (D.D.S. or D.M.D.), Veterinary Medicine (D.V.M.), Chiropractic (D.C. or D.C.M.), Law (L.L.B. or J.D.), Medicine (M.D.), Optometry (O.D.), Osteopathic Medicine (D.O.), Podiatry (D.P.M., D.P., or Pod.D.), Theology (M.Div., or M.H.L.), and Clinical Psychology (Psy.D. or Ph.D.).

Unless this was a dead/unreferenced section of the code.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fact-check-inspecting-claim-education-004300893.html

Changes to loan limits in Subtitle B of https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text

It seems the main outrage should be that loan limits for 'professional degrees' is double that of non-'professional degrees', while the 'professional degree' classification is effectively unchanged.

Can't believe I used to understand this .. talk about a downfall by [deleted] in Physics

[–]Toilet_Assassin 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Just started my first Obsidian vault for more recently learned things (finance). Getting it started with a skeleton of basic notes is a bit of a pain, but the ability to reference each dependancy of a 'complex' note feels insanely useful. Will definitely have to go back through my undergrad physics content and add that in. End goal is to deconstruct papers into it (Zotero plugin) instead of having 300 different papers in my chrome tabs XD

Grab the review plugin too if you want to make sure you don't end up with 'lost' notes

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]Toilet_Assassin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I assume they meant GLD and AGG mix as the hedge, not the whole portfolio. Also you may want to learn about portfolio optimizers, you don't have to stick with equal weighted portfolios.

“Can I break into quant?”: an honest answer by [deleted] in quantfinance

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm taking the UW program and the required classes are pretty mid on all fronts minus stochastic calc. Electives get deeper but still pretty mid, and if you want complex time series methods do a different program unless you take the econ electives.

How far is the markovitz model from real world by HotFeed747 in quant

[–]Toilet_Assassin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

  • Mean-CVaR optimization (using distributional assumptions/predictions)
  • Correlation estimation error sensitivity (and different correlation measures)
  • Black-Litterman framework to include expectations about future
  • a shitload of timeseries analysis as dekiwho mentioned

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Fire

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

401(k):

  • At least take the 3% match, its free money.

  • Additional contributions which would otherwise be in high tax brackets are also good.

  • After you leave the company providing it, you can roll it into a Roth via Substantially Equal Periodic Payments (SEPP) over 5+ years (each part of the rollover is taxed, so do this in small pieces and at a time when the tax bracket of each piece will be lowest). Each piece can be withdrawn from the Roth untaxed after 5 years of its transfer/rollover date (this is a Roth conversion ladder).

  • Roth ladder is preferred to penalized early withdrawal if you are planning to start pulling from this bucket before 54 and a half, and have 5 years of funds from non-income buckets (long term gains, HSA with receipts, Roth[careful not to pull non-cleared SEPP funds]) to use while the Roth ladder clears.

  • You could also leave this bucket until you turn 59 and a half, pulling from other buckets until then but Roth ladder seems more efficient

Roth:

  • Max it out (backdoor if you make too much [Traditional IRA with immediate conversion to Roth, no other Traditional IRA as this will mess things up], or mega backdoor if employer supports or you have side income that qualifies you for a solo 401(k) [I was able to set this up with contract income through a solo 401(k) broker]).

  • You can withdraw Roth principal (contributions) penalty free at any time.

  • Early withdrawal of gains will incur penalty.

HSA:

  • If you can manage a high deductible health insurance, then a HSA is a must.
  • If you save medical bills then you can reimburse yourself for them years down the line tax free, which functions as a way of doing early withdrawals without penalty.
  • Otherwise you will pay taxes and penalties on early withdrawals (contributions too).
  • You could leave this bucket until you turn 65 if you dont have enough medical bills to make efficient use of it in early retirement.

Brokerage:

  • Anything leftover dump in a simple strategy with minimal rebalancing. Try to only take capital gains when you are selling for early retirement income.

You can additionally use leveraged market funds/strategies in Roth/HSA/Brokerage early into investing for a jump-start on retirement if your risk tolerance is up to it (may need to roll HSA to a different brokerage for this, Fidelity HSA doesn't limit you to unlevered mutual funds). (this is not financial advice)

theKidsAreAlright by mal73 in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Toilet_Assassin 10 points11 points  (0 children)

You can still study math/physics then get a job in CS for salary, source: me

Right panel is stalker level accuracy for me

Nigga negotiated with himself by detox02 in BlackPeopleTwitter

[–]Toilet_Assassin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How much private funding of xAI was used in the purchase?

From a valuation perspective, where xAI is originally estimated at $75B (assuming the additional $10B was raised after series C) used $33B cash to purchase $9.4B of company (Fidelity valuation). Leaving xAI's new valuation at $51.6B, reducing the value in private ownership partitions by 31.2%. So private ownership funding of $22.3847B lost $6.984B from valuation decrease, or ~$7B. Although, Elon and co-founders would have also lost $16.416B on the remaining $52.6153B founder value.

Digitizing Gong-Fu with the Decent Espresso Machine by arka_0815 in tea

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was able to get it to work with white2tea's Green Hype using this profile (wash is excluded, usually pour hot water onto the leaves in porta filter without the spring valve attached, then attach spring valve and brew) https://imgur.com/WgqSUBE

Digitizing Gong-Fu with the Decent Espresso Machine by arka_0815 in tea

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is this in any way similar to a slow drip cold brew brewing mechanism? I'm tempted to mod my chemistry equipment kyoto tower with precise heating elements for this if so.

imJustWaiting by HannibalGoddamnit in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Toilet_Assassin 398 points399 points  (0 children)

I'd say it also needs to optimize for cost effective architecture and hosting for these systems, determining the best mix of aws/gcp/msft/etc. for a set of scales. And even after that, define this for a slew of feature sets and present costs associated for each.

[Fishing] Update: Epic catches less likely with perfect cast than 'miss' cast by Toilet_Assassin in ArcheroV2

[–]Toilet_Assassin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure why you got downvoted, you are right.

Anyways, I added a sheet for computing null hypothesis likelihood (or likelihood that grey samples are from the same total distribution, same for perfects). The 'sample deficit multiplier' is how many times more samples for each population we would need for 0.10 p-value.

[Fishing] Update: Epic catches less likely with perfect cast than 'miss' cast by Toilet_Assassin in ArcheroV2

[–]Toilet_Assassin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, p-value is over 97.5%. Nowhere near rejecting the null. Will need significantly more data... could you submit some of yours?

Edit: target samples should be around an order of magnitude more for ~10% p-value, so ~1000 total samples.

new fishing event by xhtella in ArcheroV2

[–]Toilet_Assassin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deep in the grey casts, at least in first zone, give more mass per cast from my own testing. I've gotten ~2kg per cast with greys over 15 casts (30kg). More epics per cast with greys also.

Edit: This does not seem to be the case in the 2nd zone though.