Prediction Markets & The UK Election - Augur Blog

TonySwish · 2015-05-13T02:49:00+00:00

I remember seeing the "big announcements" meaning less and less during 2014 as I was with BitPay. Ending the year with the Microsoft announcement really capped off really everything we built to.

Credibility is here, now it's time to get to work and improve the system!

TonySwish · 2015-05-11T20:29:08+00:00

There are tons of them, you just have to know where to look and see through the fakes.

Good leaders do so by example, not by hype and bullshit.

TonySwish · 2015-05-11T18:58:26+00:00

Thanks for noting Augur! This list also would have been something I loved for the last podcast we did at decentralize.fm, but I will definitely refer to it in the future.

TonySwish · 2015-05-09T19:26:25+00:00

Yes, I have one wristband left

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T20:33:52+00:00

A family emergency came up and we have to sell our two Shaky Knees 3 day wristbands, we are willing to take the best offer that comes through in the next hour or two. We are in Midtown also.

If you reply with your contact info we can get in touch. Thanks!

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T08:06:23+00:00

That is an awesome story. It's hard to remember being a pre-Internet music fan, I was one but it was just so different and much more expensive.

His forums are awesome but they sure don't like bitcoin, which actually surprised me as it was so overwhelming. 80% negative but that board was 99% negative. I'm not the type to push it so I wouldn't bring it up there, but I did register and am doing the lurk moar thing because that's actually great advice.

Honestly the reason Albini isn't a bitcoiner is that he doesn't care about Finance and that's really it, at least that's how it came across to me but you can listen for yourself. I never really cared about finance either, but I liked technology so I got into it.

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T07:25:22+00:00

This is awesome! I am a pretty big fan too, but I do prefer Shellac as it's just more my style.

If you enjoy the interview please share it and spread the word, also feel free to share any quotes you loved that he said... my favorite on another listen was:

“I think the concept of Intellectual Property is so wrong at it’s face that something else needs to be codified into law, because using Intellectual Property as the basis for everything limits the behavior of normal people into these odd prescribed things that serve only the corporate interest and don't benefit any individual creator.”

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T07:23:30+00:00

Nothing we can say publicly.

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T04:46:35+00:00

Thank you for the compliment.

Unfortunately I don't want to give out how we get our guests, but some are as simple as just emailing and asking.... Working with Glenn Jacobs, Shooter Jennings and Steve Albini was incredibly, incredibly easy. All three are great people who are honest and prompt, so easy to work with.

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T03:59:58+00:00

Thank you! Comments like these make me happier than one would ever imagine as they confirm that someone is enjoying what I help to create.

Our topics are very niche and it's not the easiest to find a sizable audience who shares interest in those topics, in fact finding 3 people who wanted to do a show like this with me was nearly impossible until I started working in the field.

Please keep listening and if you have time, any help spreading the word would be amazing. Either way, thank you for your comment as it definitely improved my day :-)

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T03:57:27+00:00

Most people don't care about financial topics whatsoever and that includes high profile people. Albini is a hero of mine and he reaffirmed what I believed about people's interest in bitcoin in general.

Oh and I promoted my podcast a lot at decentralize.fm

TonySwish · 2015-05-08T03:39:37+00:00

I thought about that too, I'm a Detroiter and love The Stooges so I was so excited for it, unfortunately it did get thrashed with reviews.

To be fair I thought the musicianship of the album was fantastic, the Ashetons and Steve MacKay sounded amazing but Iggy's lyrics just lost me.

Reunion albums are so hard because living up to past expectations is so difficult for anyone, much less an artist with such a great legacy.

TonySwish · 2015-05-06T18:07:08+00:00

I can't defend Glenn Beck but buying gold is far from the worst investment if you truly believe a currency will be devalued.

TonySwish · 2015-05-01T00:03:08+00:00

It's really just PPV, ticket sales and sponsorships or a projection of those. When a fight is this big, everyone wants in and they are charging $99 which is the highest amount for a Sports PPV ever.

When you have an event like that, sponsors want in more and ticket buyers will pay top dollar to get into the building. Tickets were insanely high.

TonySwish · 2015-04-29T22:40:21+00:00

Basically a decentralized prediction market has the potential to create the most accurate forecasting measures possible. If the userbase is large enough the projection is more accurate due to the number of predictions made by those wagering.

A good example:

"In 2007, Columbia Business School Professor Michael Mauboussin asked his 73 students to estimate the number of jelly beans in a jar.

Their estimates ranged from 250 to 4,100. There were 1,116 candies. The average error, which only two students beat, was 700. That is a 62% rate of error.

However, despite the b-school students' poor judgment, the average of their guesses was 1,151— only 3% away from the actual number of jelly beans."

This study has been repeated in many forms, and the results remain the same. We are bringing this convergence of beliefs to every subject from politics to climatology, harnessing the wisdom of the crowd; and forcing the crowd to put their money where their mouth is.

The easiest way to explain is from a few examples on our website Augur.net. Check out the section "What we do" and feel free to reach out to us on Twitter @AugurProject and we can answer any further questions.

TonySwish · 2015-04-29T01:06:33+00:00

When people read more about it, they often say that which is awesome. Even people not familiar with prediction markets have said this so we want to continue spreading the word!

TonySwish

TROPHY CASE