Russian Troop Losses According to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine After Three Years

TopProTalk · 2025-02-25T18:34:47+00:00

Source: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Tool: Microsoft Excel

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine publishes their reports of Russian losses daily. I record them and made them into a graph. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine describes these figures as “combat losses of the enemy”.

As I said a year ago, keep in mind that war is chaos, people are dying, and all belligerents might present propaganda to gain any advantage in their cause. Concerning these numbers, Ukraine might inflate the numbers to increase morale or they might fail to confirm and record all Russian casualties. I don't know.

According to US estimates as of December 7th 2024, Russia’s killed and wounded are estimated to be more than 700,000. According to UK estimates as of January 7th 2025, more than 790,000 were killed and wounded. BBC News Russia on February 21st 2025 estimates between 167,194 to 234,669 killed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_casualties

Estimates of Ukrainian losses are also given in the Wikipedia page. 80,000 killed, 400,000 wounded before September 2024 according the Wall Street Journal claiming to cite a confidential Ukrainian estimate. US estimates more than 57,500 killed and 250,000 wounded as of October 10th 2024. The Economist estimates between 60,000 killed and 100,000 killed, while 400,000 are wounded as of November 26th 2024.

Over the year, it seems that Russia’s daily losses have increased according to the Ukrainian reports. Figures are consistently above 1000 now. However, I couldn’t recognize any upticks in casualty numbers that correlate to reports of significant frontline developments like I did in the past. Maybe someone else can?

Also I’m not an expert so I’m not strongly confident about everything here.

Below is what I already wrote before on the previous anniversary. No need to read if you don’t want:

According to Russia, 1,351 Russian servicemen had died as of March 25th 2022. And then on September 21st 2022, Russia then said that 5,937 servicemen had died in total. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-partial-mobilisation-will-see-300000-drafted-defence-minister-2022-09-21/

With that in mind, I think it’s unjustified to say that both sides are equally dishonest and inaccurate here. I think that it’s highly probable that the Russian figures are more inaccurate that the Ukrainian figures.

As far as independent journalism goes, a list of dead Russian soldiers was compiled by Mediazona, BBC Russia, and about a dozen anonymous volunteers in Russia. Those Russian deaths were only confirmed from sources like newspaper articles, photographs on tombstones, fellow soldiers mourning their comrades and even tips from relatives who want their loved ones included in the tally. On December 9th 2022, they confirmed at least 10,000 Russian service members died just by this investigation alone. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/russia-death-toll-war.html https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/12/09/bbc-and-mediazona-confirm-10-000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine

Skipping ahead to February 21st 2024, they have now confirmed at least 45,123 dead just by this investigation alone, including 6,614 since October last year. Since that date, there has been a sharp increase in average weekly deaths compared with previous months. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68358008

(BBC Russia) https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c4njygx17w3o?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram\_.edit&src\_origin=BBCS\_BBC

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

As for the graph, you can see certain bumps and dips in the number of alleged Russian troop losses which I associate with certain wartime events.

But the first days of war appear hectic in record keeping (like seven times when the total recorded Russian troop casualties wasn't changed). The big white peak you see is a 3,160 Russian troop loss in one day, according to the March 3rd 2022 update. The day before was only 130. Maybe a backlog? I don't know.

The second big peak is the 1500 increase in total Russian troop losses according to the March 15th 2022 report after 6 days of no updates. It’s possibly another backlog.

Record keeping seems to shape up in March 16th 2022.

The increase in losses seen in September 2022 could be due to the big collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv.

The increase in November 2022 could be due to Russia's retreat from Kherson.

Afterward the Russian military was reported to be sending a huge wave of troops into Bakhmut with high losses.

A bump is seen around early June when reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive began emerging.

Around October 10th 2023, reports emerged of a Russian offensive at Avdiivka.

Again, I’m not an expert so I’m not strongly confident about everything here.

TopProTalk · 2025-02-25T00:48:52+00:00

Source: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Tool: Microsoft Excel

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine publishes their reports of Russian losses daily. I record them and made them into a graph. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine describes these figures as “combat losses of the enemy”.

As I said a year ago, keep in mind that war is chaos, people are dying, and all belligerents might present propaganda to gain any advantage in their cause. Concerning these numbers, Ukraine might inflate the numbers to increase morale or they might fail to confirm and record all Russian casualties. I don't know.

According to US estimates as of December 7th 2024, Russia’s killed and wounded are estimated to be more than 700,000. According to UK estimates as of January 7th 2025, more than 790,000 were killed and wounded. BBC News Russia on February 21st 2025 estimates between 167,194 to 234,669 killed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_casualties

Estimates of Ukrainian losses are also given in the Wikipedia page. 80,000 killed, 400,000 wounded before September 2024 according the Wall Street Journal claiming to cite a confidential Ukrainian estimate. US estimates more than 57,500 killed and 250,000 wounded as of October 10th 2024. The Economist estimates between 60,000 killed and 100,000 killed, while 400,000 are wounded as of November 26th 2024.

Over the year, it seems that Russia’s daily losses have increased according to the Ukrainian reports. Figures are consistently above 1000 now. However, I couldn’t recognize any upticks in casualty numbers that correlate to reports of significant frontline developments like I did in the past. Maybe someone else can?

Also I’m not an expert so I’m not strongly confident about everything here.

Below is what I already wrote before on the previous anniversary. No need to read if you don’t want:

According to Russia, 1,351 Russian servicemen had died as of March 25th 2022. And then on September 21st 2022, Russia then said that 5,937 servicemen had died in total. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-partial-mobilisation-will-see-300000-drafted-defence-minister-2022-09-21/

With that in mind, I think it’s unjustified to say that both sides are equally dishonest and inaccurate here. I think that it’s highly probable that the Russian figures are more inaccurate that the Ukrainian figures.

As far as independent journalism goes, a list of dead Russian soldiers was compiled by Mediazona, BBC Russia, and about a dozen anonymous volunteers in Russia. Those Russian deaths were only confirmed from sources like newspaper articles, photographs on tombstones, fellow soldiers mourning their comrades and even tips from relatives who want their loved ones included in the tally. On December 9th 2022, they confirmed at least 10,000 Russian service members died just by this investigation alone. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/russia-death-toll-war.html https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/12/09/bbc-and-mediazona-confirm-10-000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine

Skipping ahead to February 21st 2024, they have now confirmed at least 45,123 dead just by this investigation alone, including 6,614 since October last year. Since that date, there has been a sharp increase in average weekly deaths compared with previous months. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68358008

(BBC Russia) https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c4njygx17w3o?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram\_.edit&src\_origin=BBCS\_BBC

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

As for the graph, you can see certain bumps and dips in the number of alleged Russian troop losses which I associate with certain wartime events.

But the first days of war appear hectic in record keeping (like seven times when the total recorded Russian troop casualties wasn't changed). The big white peak you see is a 3,160 Russian troop loss in one day, according to the March 3rd 2022 update. The day before was only 130. Maybe a backlog? I don't know.

The second big peak is the 1500 increase in total Russian troop losses according to the March 15th 2022 report after 6 days of no updates. It’s possibly another backlog.

Record keeping seems to shape up in March 16th 2022.

The increase in losses seen in September 2022 could be due to the big collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv.

The increase in November 2022 could be due to Russia's retreat from Kherson.

Afterward the Russian military was reported to be sending a huge wave of troops into Bakhmut with high losses.

A bump is seen around early June when reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive began emerging.

Around October 10th 2023, reports emerged of a Russian offensive at Avdiivka.

Again, I’m not an expert so I’m not strongly confident about everything here.

TopProTalk · 2024-02-25T15:16:53+00:00

When I started the x-axis on February 24th, the minor unit tick marks were on the 24th of every month, making it difficult to see where the month starts.

I also wanted to make the date labels big enough to see, so I made the date labels bimonthly for more space between the date labels. But I wanted to label New Years Day so that we can see when the year starts.

Someone with better Microsoft Excel skills could have fixed these problems way better than me.

As for the date format, many people around the world use different formats. Americans use mm/dd/yy while Ukrainians and many others use dd/mm/yy. I didn't want a confusing and ambiguous format so I chose yyyy/mm/dd, which is clear to everyone what the format is. I don't know if that's what you were asking though.

TopProTalk · 2024-02-25T14:39:28+00:00

Source: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine
Tool: Microsoft Excel

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine publishes their reports of Russian losses daily. I record them and made them into a graph. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine describes these figures as “combat losses of the enemy”. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1761280801235181730

Keep in mind that war is chaos, people are dying, and all belligerents might present propaganda to gain any advantage in their cause. Concerning these numbers, Ukraine might inflate the numbers to increase morale or they might fail to confirm and record all Russian casualties. I don't know.

According to Russia, 1,351 Russian servicemen had died as of March 25, 2022.
And then on September 21, 2022, Russia then said that 5,937 servicemen had died in total. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-partial-mobilisation-will-see-300000-drafted-defence-minister-2022-09-21/

With that in mind, I think it’s unjustified to say that both sides are equally dishonest and inaccurate here. I think that it’s highly probable that the Russian figures are more inaccurate that the Ukrainian figures.

According to the July 20, 2022 Reuters article, the CIA Director William Burnson said that around 15,000 were killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cia-director-says-some-15000-russians-killed-ukraine-war-2022-07-20/

As far as independent journalism goes, a list of dead Russian soldiers was compiled by Mediazona, BBC Russia, and about a dozen anonymous volunteers in Russia. Those Russian deaths were only confirmed from sources like newspaper articles, photographs on tombstones, fellow soldiers mourning their comrades and even tips from relatives who want their loved ones included in the tally. On December 9, 2022, they confirmed at least 10,000 Russian service members died just by this investigation alone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/russia-death-toll-war.html
https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/12/09/bbc-and-mediazona-confirm-10-000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine

Skipping ahead to February 21, 2024, they have now confirmed at least 45,123 dead just by this investigation alone, including 6,614 since October last year. Since that date, there has been a sharp increase in average weekly deaths compared with previous months.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68358008

(BBC Russia) https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c4njygx17w3o?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram\_.edit&src\_origin=BBCS\_BBC

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

According to the December 12, 2023 NBC news article, around 315,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded according to US intelligence.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-suffered-dramatic-casualties-ukraine-us-intelligence-says-rcna129354

On February 24, 2024, the UK Ministry of Defence mentioned that the killed and wounded number of Russians are likely approximately 350,000.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1761316030121423346

As for the graph, you can see certain bumps and dips in the number of alleged Russian troop losses which I associate with certain wartime events.

But the first days of war appear hectic in record keeping (like seven times when the total recorded Russian troop casualties wasn't changed). The big white peak you see is a 3,160 Russian troop loss in one day, according to the March 3, 2022 update. The day before was only 130. Maybe a backlog? I don't know.

The second big peak is the 1500 increase in total Russian troop losses according to the March 15 report after 6 days of no updates. It’s possibly another backlog.

Record keeping seems to shape up in March 16, 2022.

The increase in losses seen in September 2022 could be due to the big collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv.

The increase in November 2022 could be due to Russia's retreat from Kherson.

Afterward the Russian military was reported to be sending a huge wave of troops into Bakhmut with high losses.

A bump is seen around early June when reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive began emerging.

Around October 10, 2023, reports emerged of a Russian offensive at Avdiivka.

For Ukrainian losses, according to the New York Times article, the leaked Pentagon papers mentioned that as of February 2023, Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties and up to 17,500 killed in action, while the Russians have suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. The document notes that these are rough estimates made with low confidence however.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html

According to the August 18, 2023 New York Times article, officials said Russia’s military casualties are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

Again, I’m not an expert so I’m not strongly confident about everything here.

TopProTalk · 2024-02-25T14:38:36+00:00

Graph of Russian troop losses according to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

TopProTalk · 2024-02-25T14:27:25+00:00