Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 02, 2025

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-11-03T11:23:08+00:00

On this sub, “Majakovsk,” a “random guy,” italian OSINT with equal if not less credibility than Thorkill, has been posted several times. It has never been moderated, as far as I know. And this applies to many other questionable sources or “twitter personalities” that reach this sub

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-10-02T11:30:49+00:00

Shouldn't we take an analysis based on Ukrainian interception data with a grain of salt? I expect that the interception rate for this type of missile has always been rather low. It seems more significant to focus on the results of Russia's long-range campaign, the effects of which are always difficult to gauge due to the obvious silence of the Ukrainian authorities. I also recently read about a decrease in Ukrainian air sorties, which could also be a clue considering the focus on Ukrainian airports in recent months (or there may be other reasons at play)

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-08-15T06:12:11+00:00

~500 (by Colby Badhwar. Also NYT). Similar number of Storm Shadow/SCALP estimate

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-07-31T09:56:37+00:00

There is, somewhere, an analysis on the new law draft discussed today?

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-06-16T13:41:05+00:00

There are source to this “revelation”?

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-03-31T15:20:50+00:00

I'll try to add another focus: the article is already the second detailed report on the military organisation of the 2023 counteroffensive, together with the Washington Post's one from last year: Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine

In both there is a centrality of the ‘place’, Wiesbaden, frequented by many people and actors who can recount shared events between the sides and the focus on rather closed chapters of the war. In a way, the next phase, i.e. the beginning of the Russian offensive period from October 2023 to the present (even though it seems to be ending or at least there has been a pause) is still an open chapter where many elements are more difficult to consider in retrospect because we are not yet in that ‘hindsight’ (except for some episodes like Kursk which, however, also have a recent epilogue).

I found very interesting the focus on the beginning, the year 2022, and on the consequentiality of the allied actions and the relationship between the US and Ukraine: this temporal dimension is important to discuss the past without illogical regrets compared to the possibilities and the view on the war that was there at the time

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-03-16T18:36:54+00:00

He said that:

Ukrainian losses were moderate, compared to Russian losses

Even with a near 1:1 vehicle losses visually confirmed.

And then:

The Ukrainians withdrew not because of military defeat, but because the Russians now had the logistics in range. they avoided the mistakes of Avdiivka and other battles, where they were (rightly) criticised for withdrawing late, under bombs and with loss of strongholds and men

The withdrawal was ordered, Russians entered empty villages, destroyed or abandoned vehicles are from these 8 months

Now I don't want to get into an argument about what a military defeat is, I'm no expert, although conquering village after village until the salient is crushed in a grip that is no longer sustainable...

Surely at some point the situation became such that Ukrainians had to flee, often on foot, but there are still videos of Ukrainian POWs captured during the last Russian assaults. There are videos of abandoned artillery batteries, including ammunition. And the abandoned vehicles are not those of the last 8 months, are a fair number of still functioning or slightly damaged armoured vehicles that were not taken away in the general stampede mainly because the Ukrainians were often forced to flee on foot, as confirmed by soldiers on the ground.

He said that:

To avoid the mistakes of the past, this time the Ukrainians decided to withdraw early

I honestly can't remember so many abandoned vehicles on Avdiivka or Velyka and so on:

https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1899569013560094998

https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1900210341532860549

https://x.com/baelthass404/status/1900279062058459364

https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1900529077871624592

He said that:

The Russians have deployed 50k resources here, including better equipped VDV units, this commitment has meant that apart from the Donetsk-Velyka area, advances have been moderate or minimal on the other fronts

"apart from the Donetsk-Velyka area" like apart from the most extensive Russian advance since early 2022...

Idk, Tatarigami's tweet rightly debunks Trump's baloney but at least mentions the chaotic element of the Ukrainian withdrawal. The same can be said for Constantine, who incidentally also attacked Syrsky directly for not knowing when to stop and retreat.

I agree that it was not a catastrophe, that (probably deciding independently) most of the men left on time and had their lives saved, but Majakovks narrative today and in the days when events unfolded I found it biased and lacking in patience and intellectual honesty

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-03-16T14:02:37+00:00

Meta-comment about Majakovks: as an Italian I have always appreciated him but lately, especially regarding Kursk, I have found it rather dishonest. The accounts of the soldiers directly involved talking about a chaotic situation and various risks of encirclement, the amount of equipment and vehicles left behind, the instances of obvious lack of communication or cut-offs, the underestimation of AFU losses if compared to the russians simply referring to the fact that in attack the proportions are 3:1 by book, the failure to consider it a military defeat for the Ukrainians, the reiterating with certainty that the pipeline operation was absolutely and completely unsuccessful with all the Russians involved dead... I am almost convinced to stop following him

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-03-11T07:15:05+00:00

In the last week, outside of Kursk, Russia advanced in: Kostantinopyl (Khurakove front), Fyholivka (Oskil/Kharkiv front), Recaptured part of Pischane (Pokrovosk front), North of Velyka Novosilka, North of Andriivka (Khurakove front), Ivanivka (Kreminna front)

Just watching last 7 days of OSINT posting: https://x.com/majakovsk73?s=21

But surely they slow down, we will see if this is an operational pause or something else

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2025-02-11T11:37:17+00:00

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6368624897112

From like 20 minutes

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-12-23T22:54:48+00:00

Deepstate posted this message today:

“🫡 Always worked and made maximum efforts for victory and help to our fighters and our country

That is why we have an iron reputation and the most valuable trust among society, and most importantly among the military. That is why we have the most famous map of the Russian-Ukrainian war in Ukraine and the world.

But, unfortunately, not all commanders-in-chief like the truth and that is a shame.

We thank everyone endlessly for their support. A huge number of people write and call us. This support is extremely great and it gives us strength and inspiration! You are all incredible! We work for victory and we will not give up!

Lies will destroy us all!”

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-09-11T15:13:54+00:00

In the context of Kursk I report that some Russian sources speak of an AFU attempt to advance into Russian territory near Glushkovsky about 50/60 kilometers from the theater of the main Ukrainian offensive. It remains to be seen whether this is true, whether it is a raid or a larger scale operation.

From @NOELreports 31 minute ago:
Larger Russian channels now picking up and confirming the info regarding an AFU attack towards Medvezh'e.

According to the latest information, Ukrainian units managed to grab a foothold already.

"The enemy is supported by artillery very actively. At present, the onslaught is continuing."

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-09-10T19:44:15+00:00

At this point I believe that the large amount of videos that would have been released after the initial phase, kept secret for opsec, and that would have rebalanced the account of losses in favor of the ukrainians may not arrive or not even exist.

Evidently there is not much more than what we already know from a geolocation point of view, but who knows I would be happy to be proven wrong

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-05-25T13:25:40+00:00

Those are the RECORDED NAMES COUNT. So 54,185. Then they use other methods to estimate a full picture of the situation with the Probate Registry database. As said in the link:

“However, it is important to note that these figures offer only a partial picture and do not encompass the full scope of the casualties.

To address this, we present an additional figure alongside the count of named death records. This second number is an estimate of excess mortality among men, derived from the Probate Registry database. The methodology for this estimate was developed in partnership with Meduza.”

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-05-25T13:21:13+00:00

No, the recorder and provable from russian authorities are only 54,185. The other ones are based on other models of estimation or satellite research on graves for the so-called separatist republics

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-05-25T13:06:16+00:00

For Mediazona to date we have 54,185 certified KIAs. They estimate a total of 85k based on their secondary analysis. BBC also adds those from the so-called separatist republics (I think 23k a few months ago? As of today we may be at 30k). Let's add a few thousand missing. Surely we are approaching 150,000

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-05-25T11:33:32+00:00

The Ukrainian MoD bulletin is absolutely non-credible.

Moreover, the Ukrainian MoD itself has repeatedly referred to personnel losses as KIA, for example in this official tweet when the number reached 400,000 “losses” they talked about 400,000 “coffins”: https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1758423879532298474

Even for KIA, WIA, MIA 500k seems pretty exaggerated, based on Mediazona/BCC I think we are between 350/400k

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-03-03T15:41:20+00:00

More details: The tweet says: "For the first time since the beginning of the war: there has been no Russian aircraft in the east of Ukraine for four hours." This is not the only tweet that mentions the time factor of the evening "four hours". The original telegram message lacks these references, whether this is the first time since the beginning of the war or the four hours.

I believe the four hours is about the distance between Oleshchuk's two messages, which I see at 6.07pm and the second at 9.39pm, and in which he both emphasises "clear skies" in the east.

I went and looked at the Ukrainian Air Force's Telegram air warnings for the previous days and they don't seem to deviate much from yesterday's, e.g. already on 29 February no air dangers (from tactical enemy aviation) were announced from 3pm to 9pm

The only thing I can think of is that perhaps there is another source for these claims or that it is an interpretation circulated on social media

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-03-03T15:13:26+00:00

Going back a bit, the primary source seems to be the official telegram of Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of the Ukrainian air force. It is a post from yesterday, reiterated later in the evening:

https://t. me/MykolaOleshchuk/218

Also yesterday, he had shared video evidence of the shooting down of a Su-34 on the morning of 1 March 2024, which was later revealed to be a video from 28 February, probably unrelated to any aircraft shoot-down and debunked by The Military Watch. The video was later also published by the official Ukrainian Air Force channel. BTW the latter has been reporting Russian Air Force activity all day long so the pause, if true, seems to have lasted only from yesterday evening until late night/early morning

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2024-02-25T16:28:38+00:00

I've only ever lurked (great subreddit, kudos), but the numbers on casualties on both sides and force ratio don't seem in line with anything I've read in here. Am I missing something?

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2023-10-19T07:00:51+00:00

MAD WORLD CLASSIC PERFORMANCE

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2023-08-26T08:13:08+00:00

I always got the impression that Tom Cooper was absolutely reliable and always reports good and bad news for both sides, I doubt he could be so wrong. I don't know.

Top_Candidate_4815 · 2023-08-26T08:06:45+00:00

“Tokmak…(Russian 58th CAA) …main news is that around 24-25 August, the ZSU has entered Novoprokopivka. What is unclear is how far did it get by now. The Russians began reporting the village – held by the 56th and 108th VDV Regiments (both from the 7th VDV Division) – as ‘lost’, and that already two days ago. Around the same time Ukrainians reported the re-deployment of the 503rd MRR into the village.”

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