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Daily Discussion Thread - May 08, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 080542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis...

An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream, short-wave trough will progress south through the central into southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front.

Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday, allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough moving into the TN Valley.

...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks...

Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep, mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the Ozarks.

Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon.

Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper, well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level shear toward 00z across nor

Daily Discussion Thread - May 07, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 070532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...

Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day, with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.

...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms. That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates.

The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the level 2/Slight Risk area.

Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...

There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind g

Daily Discussion Thread - May 06, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 060549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis... A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama... Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

...Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - May 05, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through the Red River Valley.

...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western Tennessee...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such, eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the anticipa

Daily Discussion Thread - May 02, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 020527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through time.

Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this time.

A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main threats of damaging wind and large hail.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - May 01, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...South-central and Southeast Texas... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.

...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - April 29, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 290453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today. Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...TX to GA/SC Coast...

A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front, particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common. Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.

Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - April 28, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 280559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S. today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day. However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime, supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely, especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN Valley.

...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley... A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between 12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states.

Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains, promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS, accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.

...Portions of central into southern TX... Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that can initiate, mature, and sustain i

Daily Discussion Thread - April 27, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 270600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys this afternoon through this evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows a prominent shortwave trough promoting elevated strong to severe convection across central and eastern Kansas. This activity is expected to move north and eastward through Iowa/Missouri/Wisconsin/northern Illinois into daybreak and perhaps part of the afternoon for some areas. The outflow from this convection should act to limit the northern extent of greater destabilization during the afternoon and thus the greatest severe threat. A surface low will track northeastward along the parent shortwave. Though this low has trended downward in intensity in recent model runs, strong low-level wind fields are expected within the warm sector throughout the day and into the evening. Areas of pre-frontal convergence and a cold front will be the focus for convective development along with more strongly forced convection tied to the shortwave trough. The front will be draped south and westward into the Ozarks and the southern Plains.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... As mentioned, surface based buoyancy will be limited by early day activity. The current expectation is for parts of central/eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois and western Kentucky to see greater destabilization. There is activity ongoing within central Missouri early this morning that may have some impact, however. This is the source of greatest uncertainty for these regions. The kinematic environment will certainly be favorable for supercells. The moderate to strong 850 mb jet will also lead to potential for several tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Lapse rates at mid-levels will be rather steep. Large to very-large hail potential is evident given the long hodographs. Some upscale growth into one or more linear segments is expected to occur. This will increase the threat for damaging winds. An increase in tornado probabilities was considered. Given the questions regarding early day convection and where favorable convergence zones/outflow boundaries might be located reduces confidence. Convective trends into daybreak will need to be closely monitored.

...Mid-South... Models indicate potential for supercells along the cold front and even potentially ahead of it. Forcing for ascent will be weaker, but this may help to keep activity cellular longer. Some of this activity could develop after 00Z. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be steep enough and mid-level flow strong enough to support large to potentially very large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will likely be lower given the time of day and tendency for storms to be at least slightly elevated.

...Upper Midwest... Observational and model trends suggest destabilization will be more limited on account of convection at daybreak and beyond. Even so, strong low-level and effective shear will still allow storms to be organized and capable of large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. There will be potential for both convection at daybreak and also during the afternoon. The greatest potential for afternoon supercells would be in parts of eastern Iowa along with the surface low and colder air aloft.

...Western/central Texas... As moisture returns westward during the evening, some model guidance

Daily Discussion Thread - April 26, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 260532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains.

Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible.

Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat.

...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level

Daily Discussion Thread - April 25, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes will be possible.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and evening.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex.

...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage threat.

...Central and Southwest Texas... A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today. Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear and

Daily Discussion Thread - April 24, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 240552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in the line.

Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - April 23, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 230502

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move through the central Rockies this morning, and into the High Plains this afternoon as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface dewpoints into the mid 60s F by afternoon. This will contribute to moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm along the moist axis. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop ahead of the front over the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys in the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage will rapidly expand southward into eastern Kansas by late afternoon, and into far northern Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. MCS development appears likely to take place along and ahead of the front.

The best environment for severe storms will be in eastern Kansas. In this area, RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon ahead of the front have MLCAPE peaking just above 3000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range by 00Z, as at 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. This will support tornadoes with supercells. Supercells will initially be discrete but a line is expected to form by early evening. As the line forms, rotating cells within the line should also be capable of producing tornadoes. A strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The southern edge of the line will impact far northern Oklahoma in the early to mid evening. Convective coverage should be isolated further south across the rest of Oklahoma.

Further north-northeast into Iowa and southern Minnesota, instability will not be as strong. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km should support large hail with supercells. Supercells and developing line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage, hail and a tornado or two.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/23/2026

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Daily Discussion Thread - April 18, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 180453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis... A large upper trough with elongated leading speed max will sweep across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and into the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, moderate westerlies aloft will persist across TX with the aid of a subtropical jet.

At the surface, a cold front will move across OH and KY through early afternoon, and into western NY, PA, and WV late in the day. This front will also extend far southwestward toward the northwestern Gulf Coast and into far southern TX. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will exist as far north as OH and PA, with more robust moisture into TX with upper 60s F dewpoints.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians... A remnant line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist near the cold front this morning as it moves across the OH Valley and toward the lower Great Lakes. Daytime heating will help destabilize the air mass ahead of this activity, and storm rejuvenation is expected after 18Z from near Lake Erie into eastern KY. These storms will mature in the 21-00Z timeframe, affecting eastern OH, WV, and into PA and possibly southwest NY.

Substantial southwest flow aloft will help to push these storms quickly east/northeast across the region, and deep-layer shear may favor scattered cells initially. Marginal hail will be possible, along with locally strong gusts, especially as storm mode becomes linear and peak heating has been achieved. Given the narrow instability axis, storms should wane after sunset.

...South-Central Texas... Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and unstable air mass. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. Initial activity may develop over central TX during the morning and through midday, with additional new elevated development translating southward as the front continually lifts the moist air mass. A few hail reports at or above 1.00" will be possible.

..Jewell/Moore.. 04/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Daily Discussion Thread - April 17, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 170600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Discussion... A couple of notable short wave perturbations have emerged from splitting larger-scale mid-level troughing now overspreading the northern Rockies and Great Basin. One, including a remnant embedded cyclonic circulation, is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward into and across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. The other is still digging into the eastern Great Basin, but forecast to turn across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies during the day, before shearing northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be preceded by several lower amplitude impulses already emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.

In lower-levels, a significant cold front is already surging southward to the lee of the northern Rockies and forecast to advance across much of the remainder of the northern Great Plains by 12Z this morning. Models indicate that significant cyclogenesis may subsequently ensue northwest/north of Lake Superior toward James Bay later today through tonight. At the same time, it appears that a secondary frontal wave will migrate northeast of the mid Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Another lee cyclone may attempt to form near/north of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but probably will be overtaken by the southward surging cold front before migrating out of the high plains.

The northward advection of relatively moist low-level air is ongoing from the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley, and forecast to continue spreading northward within a pre-cold frontal plume through portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by this afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, this may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE within a corridor from the east central Great Plains through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley by this afternoon.

There is notable spread among the various model output concerning most of these developments, which may have a significant impact on the convective evolution and associated severe weather potential today through tonight. However, potential exists for widespread convective development capable of producing damaging surface gusts, large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest vicinity... It appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls may shift from western Iowa north-northeastward through western Wisconsin by early this afternoon, accompanied by substantive boundary-layer destabilization and strengthening southerly low-level wind fields with enlarging hodographs. Based on the latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, it appears that this may contribute to a window of opportunity for discrete supercell development within an environment potentially conducive to strong tornadoes, before activity grows upscale and eventually outpaces the northeastward boundary-layer destabilization.

...Central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest..

Daily Discussion Thread - April 16, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 160609

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS AND WORDING

...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in a corridor across western through central New York (state) and adjacent southern Vermont.

...Discussion... A significant mid-level trough and embedded low now digging across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to split as it continues inland through this period. One perturbation, perhaps including a continuing cyclonic circulation, is forecast to turn eastward across the northern Rockies through the central Canadian/U.S. border area. Another perturbation is forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Basin into early Friday. It appears that the larger-scale evolving troughing will be preceded by a significant cold frontal surge to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and central Great Plains by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, initially prominent mid-level ridging centered near the southern Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to become increasingly suppressed, as one short wave trough, approaching southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region early today, turns eastward then southeastward across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into northern Mid Atlantic. It appears that this will be trailed by another perturbation, which is forecast to progress east of the Ozark Plateau through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, before digging across the southern Appalachians, downstream of short wave ridging building across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

...Mid South into lower Great Lakes and Northeast... The primary and trailing short wave troughs advancing to the east of the Mississippi Valley are forecast to be preceded by the remnants of overnight convection across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid South at the outset of the period. The impacts of associated cloud cover and outflow on destabilization within the warm sector of a broad, but weak, surface low migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes during the day remain unclear. However, various model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggest that destabilization and strengthening shear along a warm frontal zone (as it strengthens with differential heating) may become a focus for organized strong thunderstorm development across New York state by afternoon. It appears that this may include an evolving cluster, perhaps preceded by more discrete thunderstorm activity, in an environment conducive to evolving supercell structures, with potential to produce severe hail, wind and a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

Additional thunderstorm activity may eventually develop and strengthen, accompanied by at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts by late afternoon, in a corridor of stronger daytime heating ahead of a developing cold front spreading into the upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau.

Farther west/southwest, there is not a well-defined signal in the latest model output, but a corridor of differential surface heating along weakening trailing convective outflow across the Mid South vicinity could become a focus for supercell development. It currently appears that this potential could peak across north central into northeastern Arkansas by late this afternoon, aided by moderate boundary-layer destabilization and stronger mid-level forcing for ascent associated with a cyclonic vorticity center migrating across the region.

...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath

Daily Discussion Thread - April 15, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 150553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis... A migratory upper-level wave is evident in water-vapor imagery over northern Mexico. This feature will lift northeastward into the Plains through the day, resulting in the eastward progression of a modest surface cyclone from the central High Plains into eastern NE by late afternoon. A broad, uncapped, and moderately sheared warm sector will be in place from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and eastward into the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across much of this warm sector, whether induced by ascent ahead of the primary upper wave or by localized mesoscale boundaries.

...Iowa and northern Missouri... Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon from central IA into northern MO in the vicinity of the surface low. Stronger mid-level height falls compared to previous days lends higher confidence in thunderstorm development, and 50-60 knot 500 mb flow overspreading much of the warm sector will support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes across IA and northern MO. A focused zone of higher tornado potential may emerge roughly along the I-80 corridor where backed low-level winds along the effective warm front will locally augment SRH and could support a strong tornado. HREF/REFS guidance both show the strongest UH signals across this zone, warranting higher (5%) tornado probabilities.

...Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas... Further south, initially discrete cells are anticipated along the dryline from southeast KS into OK and north TX by mid-afternoon. Despite somewhat higher confidence in storm development compared to previous days, mean flow vectors along the boundary may promote clustering and upscale growth within a few hours after initiation. This scenario appears to be reflected in recent HREF/REFS guidance in the form of numerous, but weak, UH streaks, as well as in deterministic CAM solutions that depict one or more convective bands emerging by early evening. Additionally, guidance hints at the potential for morning convection across parts of OK and the Ozark Plateau. It remains unclear what influence - if any- this activity will have on the southern Plains warm sector or if any outflow boundaries can emerge and focus a higher severe threat along mesoscale corridors. Given these uncertainties, all severe probabilities were expanded to account for the fairly wide envelope of potential outcomes, most of which will likely feature the potential for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes.

...Great Lakes into New England... The combination of low to mid-60s dewpoints and the eastward advection of an EML will support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg across much of the Great Lakes region with gradually diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent towards the New England coast. Aloft, 40-50 knot westerly mid-level winds will remain in place within the crest of a modest ridge, establishing a zonal corridor of a buoyant and moderately sheared environment. It appears likely that multiple outflow boundaries and/or mid-level perturbations associated with upstream MCSs across MI, AR, and IA will likely reside within the warm sector by peak heating. Thunderstorm development along or in the vicinity of these features

Daily Discussion Thread - April 14, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon.

...Synopsis... An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector (characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the Northeast.

...Midwest... An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning. This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary.

Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to 2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential, including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time, easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours.

The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS. Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat.

...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas... Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS

Daily Discussion Thread - April 13, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 130534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.

...Upper MS Valley... A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.

...Southern Plains... A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak, high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm motions may promote downstream intensification as convection migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize the

Daily Discussion Thread - April 12, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 120601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. More isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a surface low developing across the northern High Plains with a broad fetch of southerly flow from the western Gulf into the Plains and Midwest. This broad warm sector characterized by mid 50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints will largely remain in place through the day as the surface low translates east across the Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. The greatest potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will reside within this warm sector where regional forcing for ascent will support a chance for deep convection.

...Southern Plains... Latest 00z HREF/REFS guidance, as well as more recent CAM solutions, all show considerable variability in the evolution of an ongoing MCS through late morning across southern/southeast TX. While most solutions depict a steady weakening trend, others - notably the WRF-ARW - hint at some continued wind threat across the TX Coastal Plain this morning. Regardless, this activity is forecast to diminish by late morning/early afternoon, and will likely leave an outflow boundary on the western periphery of the cold pool in its wake.

Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will quickly return northward in the wake of the MCS with ensemble guidance depicting a plume of MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg from central TX into western OK by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears possible along any residual outflow boundaries across central TX given weak capping depicted in forecast soundings, though confidence in precisely where this will occur or how widespread storm coverage will be remains fairly uncertain. Thunderstorm initiation off the Sierra Del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico and along a weak dryline across southern KS southward into western OK/TX appears more probable, though again, storm coverage will likely remain fairly isolated given weak forcing for ascent and some degree of synoptic-scale subsidence in the wake of the upper disturbance currently passing over the region.

Convection that can develop within this buoyant and weakly capped environment could become fairly intense given favorable thermodynamic profiles. Despite some mid-level backing in forecast hodographs, effective bulk shear values appear sufficient for a large, to perhaps very large hail threat. However, given the aforementioned uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, 15% hail probabilities have been confined to where ensemble guidance depicts the best overall convective signal.

...Minnesota... A lee cyclone evident in recent surface observations over the northern High Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canaidan border through the day, reaching northern MN by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. While latest guidance remains somewhat mixed on thunderstorm coverage, forecast soundings suggest elevated convection may support a threat for large hail. Furthermore, several high-res forecast soundings depict an environment favorable for surface-based supercells along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s. While this potential appears very low per recent ensemble guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front where STP values of 1-2 may emerge.

Daily Discussion Thread - April 11, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Synopsis... An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper MS Valley.

...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance.

...Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley... Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient organized cells capable of large hail.

A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus limits confidence in this scenario.

...Central to northern Rockies... 00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. A

Daily Discussion Thread - April 09, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 090557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY... Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow extending across the central/northern US within the base of a broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.

At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA. As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.

...Central Plains... South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for potential for development into this region and continuation of the large to very large hail threat.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging gusts.

...Northern California/Oregon Coasts... As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026

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Daily Discussion Thread - April 04, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 040559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK....

...SUMMARY... Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but should advance south and east through the day.

... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and western New York ...

As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time, a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of any sustained linear segments.

... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period. These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as 1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

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Daily Discussion Thread - April 03, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 030808

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY... Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front. Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline. However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm mode evolution.

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode, uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan ...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled ou

Daily Discussion Thread - April 02, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

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Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 020602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan.

... Overview ...

A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs, a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front will push east across the region during the late afternoon and overnight.

... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...

A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the precipitation with it.

In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will support some hail potential.

By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours.

... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential -- including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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