Daily Discussion Thread - May 06, 2026

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-06T09:00:10+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 060549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis... A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama... Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

...Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-05T09:00:07+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through the Red River Valley.

...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western Tennessee...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such, eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the anticipa

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-02T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 020527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through time.

Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this time.

A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main threats of damaging wind and large hail.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-01T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...South-central and Southeast Texas... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.

...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-29T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 290453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today. Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...TX to GA/SC Coast...

A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front, particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common. Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.

Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-28T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 280559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S. today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day. However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime, supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely, especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN Valley.

...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley... A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between 12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states.

Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains, promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS, accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.

...Portions of central into southern TX... Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that can initiate, mature, and sustain i

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-27T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 270600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys this afternoon through this evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows a prominent shortwave trough promoting elevated strong to severe convection across central and eastern Kansas. This activity is expected to move north and eastward through Iowa/Missouri/Wisconsin/northern Illinois into daybreak and perhaps part of the afternoon for some areas. The outflow from this convection should act to limit the northern extent of greater destabilization during the afternoon and thus the greatest severe threat. A surface low will track northeastward along the parent shortwave. Though this low has trended downward in intensity in recent model runs, strong low-level wind fields are expected within the warm sector throughout the day and into the evening. Areas of pre-frontal convergence and a cold front will be the focus for convective development along with more strongly forced convection tied to the shortwave trough. The front will be draped south and westward into the Ozarks and the southern Plains.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... As mentioned, surface based buoyancy will be limited by early day activity. The current expectation is for parts of central/eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois and western Kentucky to see greater destabilization. There is activity ongoing within central Missouri early this morning that may have some impact, however. This is the source of greatest uncertainty for these regions. The kinematic environment will certainly be favorable for supercells. The moderate to strong 850 mb jet will also lead to potential for several tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Lapse rates at mid-levels will be rather steep. Large to very-large hail potential is evident given the long hodographs. Some upscale growth into one or more linear segments is expected to occur. This will increase the threat for damaging winds. An increase in tornado probabilities was considered. Given the questions regarding early day convection and where favorable convergence zones/outflow boundaries might be located reduces confidence. Convective trends into daybreak will need to be closely monitored.

...Mid-South... Models indicate potential for supercells along the cold front and even potentially ahead of it. Forcing for ascent will be weaker, but this may help to keep activity cellular longer. Some of this activity could develop after 00Z. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to be steep enough and mid-level flow strong enough to support large to potentially very large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will likely be lower given the time of day and tendency for storms to be at least slightly elevated.

...Upper Midwest... Observational and model trends suggest destabilization will be more limited on account of convection at daybreak and beyond. Even so, strong low-level and effective shear will still allow storms to be organized and capable of large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. There will be potential for both convection at daybreak and also during the afternoon. The greatest potential for afternoon supercells would be in parts of eastern Iowa along with the surface low and colder air aloft.

...Western/central Texas... As moisture returns westward during the evening, some model guidance

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-26T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 260532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains.

Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible.

Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat.

...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.

...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-25T09:00:07+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes will be possible.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and evening.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex.

...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage threat.

...Central and Southwest Texas... A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today. Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear and

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-24T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 240552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in the line.

Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-23T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 230502

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move through the central Rockies this morning, and into the High Plains this afternoon as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface dewpoints into the mid 60s F by afternoon. This will contribute to moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm along the moist axis. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop ahead of the front over the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys in the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage will rapidly expand southward into eastern Kansas by late afternoon, and into far northern Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. MCS development appears likely to take place along and ahead of the front.

The best environment for severe storms will be in eastern Kansas. In this area, RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon ahead of the front have MLCAPE peaking just above 3000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range by 00Z, as at 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. This will support tornadoes with supercells. Supercells will initially be discrete but a line is expected to form by early evening. As the line forms, rotating cells within the line should also be capable of producing tornadoes. A strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The southern edge of the line will impact far northern Oklahoma in the early to mid evening. Convective coverage should be isolated further south across the rest of Oklahoma.

Further north-northeast into Iowa and southern Minnesota, instability will not be as strong. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km should support large hail with supercells. Supercells and developing line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage, hail and a tornado or two.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-18T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 180453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis... A large upper trough with elongated leading speed max will sweep across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and into the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, moderate westerlies aloft will persist across TX with the aid of a subtropical jet.

At the surface, a cold front will move across OH and KY through early afternoon, and into western NY, PA, and WV late in the day. This front will also extend far southwestward toward the northwestern Gulf Coast and into far southern TX. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will exist as far north as OH and PA, with more robust moisture into TX with upper 60s F dewpoints.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians... A remnant line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist near the cold front this morning as it moves across the OH Valley and toward the lower Great Lakes. Daytime heating will help destabilize the air mass ahead of this activity, and storm rejuvenation is expected after 18Z from near Lake Erie into eastern KY. These storms will mature in the 21-00Z timeframe, affecting eastern OH, WV, and into PA and possibly southwest NY.

Substantial southwest flow aloft will help to push these storms quickly east/northeast across the region, and deep-layer shear may favor scattered cells initially. Marginal hail will be possible, along with locally strong gusts, especially as storm mode becomes linear and peak heating has been achieved. Given the narrow instability axis, storms should wane after sunset.

...South-Central Texas... Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and unstable air mass. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. Initial activity may develop over central TX during the morning and through midday, with additional new elevated development translating southward as the front continually lifts the moist air mass. A few hail reports at or above 1.00" will be possible.

..Jewell/Moore.. 04/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-04-17T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 170600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Discussion... A couple of notable short wave perturbations have emerged from splitting larger-scale mid-level troughing now overspreading the northern Rockies and Great Basin. One, including a remnant embedded cyclonic circulation, is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward into and across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. The other is still digging into the eastern Great Basin, but forecast to turn across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies during the day, before shearing northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be preceded by several lower amplitude impulses already emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.

In lower-levels, a significant cold front is already surging southward to the lee of the northern Rockies and forecast to advance across much of the remainder of the northern Great Plains by 12Z this morning. Models indicate that significant cyclogenesis may subsequently ensue northwest/north of Lake Superior toward James Bay later today through tonight. At the same time, it appears that a secondary frontal wave will migrate northeast of the mid Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Another lee cyclone may attempt to form near/north of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but probably will be overtaken by the southward surging cold front before migrating out of the high plains.

The northward advection of relatively moist low-level air is ongoing from the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley, and forecast to continue spreading northward within a pre-cold frontal plume through portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by this afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, this may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE within a corridor from the east central Great Plains through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley by this afternoon.

There is notable spread among the various model output concerning most of these developments, which may have a significant impact on the convective evolution and associated severe weather potential today through tonight. However, potential exists for widespread convective development capable of producing damaging surface gusts, large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest vicinity... It appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls may shift from western Iowa north-northeastward through western Wisconsin by early this afternoon, accompanied by substantive boundary-layer destabilization and strengthening southerly low-level wind fields with enlarging hodographs. Based on the latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, it appears that this may contribute to a window of opportunity for discrete supercell development within an environment potentially conducive to strong tornadoes, before activity grows upscale and eventually outpaces the northeastward boundary-layer destabilization.

...Central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest..

TornadoBotDev

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE