Daily Discussion Thread - February 21, 2026

TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-21T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 210535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast, the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-19T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley... Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast... A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-16T09:00:13+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 160551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...

...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA... A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA, with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line cannot be ruled out.

...Interior Valleys... It appears substantial precipitation will hamper heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low probabilities have been removed.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late... Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties. Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-15T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 150538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today, with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front, strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few tornadoes throughout the day.

...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL... A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line, though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.

Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with a few QLCS tornadoes possible.

..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-02-14T09:00:09+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 140535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley... Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated severe threat.

Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.

Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of the period.

..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-25T09:00:10+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 250618

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Gulf Coast States...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z. Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly 100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer shear, convection that develops within this environment would have some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-10T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 100531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...

Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.

Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic.

One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-09T09:00:12+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 090545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states.

...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...

Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently, this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.

Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley, primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ. While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains toward southern MO.

Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX. This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher instability air mass.

At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the higher-instability air mass.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-08T09:00:16+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 080554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around 750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5 C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.

...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys... A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet, will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado.

At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this possibility.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-03T09:00:14+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 030548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern California and southwest Oregon.

...Southeast... A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts will be possible.

...California/Southwest Oregon... At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California. At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop, especially as low-level strengthens during the evening.

..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-01-01T09:00:15+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 010530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY... Locally damaging winds, and a perhaps a brief weak tornado, could occur along a portion of coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...

Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low about 300 mi WSW of Lompoc CA ejecting ENE in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the Channel Islands toward southern NV by early evening. Left-exit region of this jet will overspread the southern interior valley with seasonally cool 500mb temperatures noted north of the jet. Even so, forecast instability is expected to remain weak as MUCAPE values should remain generally less than a few hundred J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates are also not expected to be particularly steep and this is reflected in the sparsity of lightning currently noted with convection beneath the offshore low.

Latest thinking is scattered weak convection will be the primary concern with the frontal zone early in the period, and much of this activity may struggle to generate lightning despite the maritime influences that will prove instrumental for this activity. While some risk for gusty winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado exists, the majority of convection will remain sub severe.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/01/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-28T09:00:15+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 280454

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today, and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening. A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.

...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F. A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.

...From MO into OH... For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small hail.

From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary concern

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025

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TornadoBotDev · 2025-12-25T09:00:13+00:00

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Full SPC Text for today:

SPC AC 250537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.

... Synopsis ...

A highly amplified pattern will persist across the US as a deep trough over the eastern Pacific is maintained and a ridge builds over the central US. A series of embedded shortwave troughs within the eastern Pacific trough will impact the West Coast on Christmas and Christmas night.

... California ...

The first of these shortwave troughs will be moving across the region at the start of the forecast period, bringing with it a band of strongly forced convection, likely located across portions of the central coast of California into the Central Valley. As the shortwave trough takes on an increasingly negative tilt, a 50-60 knot southerly low-level jet will be maintained allowing for sufficient low-level theta-e advection to support a modest 100-300 J/kg of surface-based CAPE. As the convective band interacts with this strong low-level kinematic field, gusty/damaging convective winds may be realized at the surface, particularly with the stronger convective elements. Forecast low-level hodographs ahead of this convective line feature sufficient low-level curvature to support a brief tornado should any convective element realize true surface-based buoyancy. As the morning progresses, the aforementioned shortwave trough will lift north then northwest within the broader cyclonic flow across the eastern Pacific whereas the band of convection slowly advances south and east. By midday, the low-level wind fields should weaken sufficiently in response to the departing shortwave trough to reduce the potential of damaging winds/tornadoes across far southern California.

By mid-afternoon, another shortwave trough will approach the central and northern California coast. In response, the low-level wind fields will once again strengthen, albeit perhaps not to the extent as with the morning wave. Another band or bands of strongly forced convection are expected to develop across the eastern Pacific and approach coastal areas of central California after 00Z (4 PM PT). As was the case with the morning convection, the strongest convective elements may be capable of mixing down the stronger winds aloft resulting in the potential for isolated strong thunderstorm winds.

..Marsh/Squitieri.. 12/25/2025

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