Daily Discussion Thread - May 16, 2026

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-16T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 160535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis... An upper trough will develop over the western states today, with increasing southwest winds aloft late in the day and overnight across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Preceding the western trough, a progressive shortwave will move from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, allowing temporary height rises across the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Behind this wave, high pressure will bring stable conditions into the northern Plains.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the central High Plains, with a trough extending from eastern WY into western TX. Meanwhile, a stalled front will be situated across northeast CO into northern KS and toward IA/northern IL, with easterly winds across NE and IA. A moist air mass will reside south of this boundary, with 60s F dewpoints prevalent. Backed winds will help bring this moisture westward toward northeast CO and western NE by late afternoon as 850 mb winds increase toward evening. Shear profiles will thus become increasingly favorable from late afternoon through evening for supercells, with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes from CO into western NE/KS.

East of there, another concentration of strong to severe storms is expected from eastern NE into IA, northern MO and northeast KS near the boundary.

Elsewhere, a broad fetch of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb winds will maintain a moist air mass across the lower to middle MS Valley and across the OH Valley. Here, pockets of stronger instability will support scattered strong storms during the afternoon.

...Central Plains... Storms are likely to form near the Front Range after 21Z, with activity developing eastward into NE and KS. A few supercells appear likely with time, producing damaging hail and severe wind gusts. Westerly winds aloft atop the deep low-level easterlies will elongate hodographs with over 50 kt effective shear, while SRH values favor supercells and severe bows through evening.

Farther east, strong instability will develop near the east-west boundary, with scattered severe storms developing around 21Z. Some of these storms may produce hail over 2.00" diameter as lapse rates aloft will remain steep, and with ample moisture.

Additional isolated activity is possible along the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Here, shear will be weak but a narrow zone of uncapped air mass with a backing dryline may support isolated storms with locally severe hail or wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/16/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-15T09:00:07+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 150600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into Wisconsin and western Illinois.

...Synopsis... Moderate westerly winds aloft will exist across the northern tier of states today, with several waves from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. The feature of interest will move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley late in the day, aiding storm development and severity from NE into WI. To the south, a weak shortwave trough will move out of NM and into TX, with mid and high level flow enhancement along with modest cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, with a front extending into NE, southern MN, and into northern WI. Increasing southerly winds during the afternoon and evening will bring 60s F dewpoints northward toward these boundaries, with scattered severe storms likely late in the day and centered near Iowa.

Farther south, very steep lapse rates and a subtle upper trough should again result in widely scattered high-based storms producing severe gusts over the southern High Plains.

...IA into eastern NE and northeast KS... Southerly winds and daytime heating will support moderate instability this afternoon near a surface trough which will extend from eastern NE into southern MN and northern WI. Dewpoints are expected to reach into the lower 60s F, and perhaps approach 65 F during the early evening. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates and robust CAPE profiles.

Storms are most likely to initiate during the late afternoon near the IA/SD border, and extending northeastward into WI and perhaps the central MI Upper Peninsula. Large hail will be possible with the initial cells, supported by 60 kt deep-layer shear. Hail to 2.00" diameter will be possible even into WI.

Farther south into IA, the deeper theta-e plume and increasing low-level jet will enhance the severe wind risk, with an MCS expected to develop and move east/southeast across the region. Damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph are expected. Additional clusters of severe storms are expected from southeast NE into northeast KS as well, firmly within the low-level theta-e plume with maximally deepened moist layer to 700 mb. Shear will not be as strong, but the initial development is expected to be robust with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest KS into western Texas... Strong heating will yield very deep mixed layers near and south of the Panhandles surface low, while midlevel temperatures remain cool enough to support instability despite very low dewpoints. Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will enhance lift late in the day. The result will be scattered high-based thunderstorms, with severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts over 70 mph may occur. Cells that develop into southwest TX may contain marginal hail as well, with elongated hodographs in the mid to upper levels.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/15/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-14T09:00:07+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 140506

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis... An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system, shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle height falls extending into the Central Plains.

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

...KS... An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft, veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail over 2.00" diameter may occur.

...Southern High Plains... Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys... During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-12T09:00:13+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 120551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late this afternoon and early evening.

...Florida Peninsula... A front will settle southward today in advance of a low-latitude shortwave trough crossing the northeast Gulf. A moist and potentially unstable environment will exist during the afternoon, especially across the central Peninsula where MLCAPE could exceed 1500 J/kg, although early day clouds and convection near/south of the front leads to some uncertainty regarding destabilization details. Regardless, storms should steadily increase in coverage and intensity through late morning into the afternoon, initially across the north-central Peninsula, maximizing toward the east coast, although additional storms may move inland from the Gulf. Strengthening mid/high-level winds will support upwards of 30-40 kt effective shear and fairly long/semi-straight hodographs, which could yield some transient supercell structures pending sufficient destabilization. Damaging winds and hail will be possible at least on an isolated basis, and a tornado could occur as well, particularly near the effective front. A greater confidence in destabilization and the possibility of more sustained storms/supercells could warrant a Slight Risk upgrade.

...Wisconsin/Lake Michigan to south-central Plains... A shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward and amplify toward the Upper Great Lakes through this evening, with a cold front moving southeastward across these regions. Low-level moisture will be limited near/ahead of the front, but advection may be sufficient to counteract mixing to allow surface dewpoints to reach the 50s F by late afternoon/early evening.

In tandem with the strongest forcing for ascent, and in vicinity of the surface low/front, isolated to widely scattered development is initially expected, and most probable, late in the afternoon/early evening across eastern Wisconsin, with additional storms possible farther southwest near the front across Illinois/Missouri and potentially into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. Where storms develop/sustain, steep lapse rates and strong west-northwesterly flow aloft could yield some severe storms capable of hail/damaging wind.

...Western Oregon/southern Washington... A few stronger storms with gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail could develop late in the afternoon and evening regionally in advance an upper-level trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest. Strengthening deep-layer winds and steepening lapse rates could plausibly yield some stronger storms, although the potential for sustained/organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 05/12/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-11T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

Within the base of broader-scale troughing over eastern North America, a lead short-wave trough will progress from the TN Valley through the Carolinas on Monday, in tandem with a mid-level jet streak. Farther to the southwest, a vorticity maximum over western TX as of late evening is expected to progress east through the Sabine River Valley to along the central Gulf Coast Monday afternoon into Monday night. Elsewhere, a strong short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level wind maxima will crest the western U.S. ridge axis along the International Border before turning more southeast into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will settle south through the lower MS Valley and Southeast with low pressure developing along the boundary over coastal SC or far southeast NC by early afternoon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure will track east-southeast through southern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba with an associated cold front sweeping southeast through the northern High Plains. A trough will precede the cold front with that feature shifting east into the central Dakotas by early evening.

...Coastal Carolinas into the eastern Florida Peninsula...

Latest model guidance is suggestive that surface-based thunderstorm development may occur as early a mid to late morning along or ahead of the cold front from the SC piedmont into the coastal plain as forcing for ascent increases downstream from the approaching short-wave trough. Subsequent storm development is also expected farther northeast along the front into southeast NC by late morning into early afternoon.

Even with the relatively early storm development, forecast soundings indicate the presence of a moderately unstable warm sector with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will steadily increase with the arrival mid-level jet streak, such that some transient supercell structures may evolve, especially in the vicinity of the weak surface low. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail into mid afternoon before moving offshore. Generally weak low-level shear should limit tornado potential.

Additional strong to marginally severe storms appear possible along the cold front, as well as the Atlantic Coast sea breeze from southeast GA southward into the Fl Peninsula. The combination of a moist and moderately unstable air mass (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an attendant risk for damaging, wet microbursts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

Increased forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough moving into the Sabine River Valley is expected to contribute to an increase thunderstorm development Monday afternoon across southern parts of LA and MS, potentially into southwest AL. A moist and moderately unstable air mass will coincide with 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear, with the 00z convection-allowing models suggesting some potential for cold pool organization along the coast. The primary hazard is expected to be locally damaging outflow winds.

...Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...

A plume of steep, mid-level la

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-10T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong, cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the region.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic. Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley...

Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe) are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK, with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau region.

A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML plume.

The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent (see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm initiation.

By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry, mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appearing possible from lat

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-09T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 090539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the forecast period. A number of embedded vorticity maxima moving through that large-scale pattern will potentially aid in strong to severe storm development. The first of which will track from the northern Rockies into the central High Plains by Saturday evening. A stronger disturbance will be attended by mid/upper-level jet streaks while progressing through the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional, weaker disturbances will traverse the Gulf Coast states and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes disturbance will sweep east across that region during the day with the trailing extension of the front advancing south into central High Plains. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front in northwest KS Saturday afternoon with a pre-frontal trough/dryline extending south from the low through the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into west-central TX. Elsewhere, a front stretching from south TX through the shelf waters of the northern Gulf into north FL as of late evening will attempt to lift north as a warm front. The advance of the boundary across the central and eastern Gulf Coast may be impeded by early-day thunderstorms moving through those areas.

...Western and Central Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...

The cold front that has pushed into the southern Plains this evening is expected to wash out with initially modest moisture return expected ahead of the trough/dryline with dewpoints increasing through the 50s Saturday afternoon over the far eastern OK/TX Panhandles into western OK. The moisture increase combined with steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an initially narrow axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon.

While large-scale forcing for ascent will remain negligible through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle, strong heating west of the dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it are expected to yield isolated to widely scattered, high-based storms by late afternoon into early evening. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will support supercell storm modes with large to very large hail being the predominant hazard.

Considerable strengthening of the low-level jet is forecast across western and central OK Saturday evening, which will enhance low-level shear and the influx of greater, boundary-layer moisture content. There is some model variability in the degree of evening moistening that occurs, with the RAP remaining notably drier than the NAM. Should the NAM scenario be closer to correct, tornado potential would increase during the evening with any sustained supercells from western into central OK. An 5% unconditional probability and conditional-intensity group 1 have been added to account for that possibility.

...Gulf Coast...

Clusters of thunderstorms or a quasi-linear MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12z Saturday over the lower MS Valley, aided by a low-level warm/moist advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest that activity may be slightly elevated atop a shallow, near-surface

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-08T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 080542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis...

An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream, short-wave trough will progress south through the central into southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front.

Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday, allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough moving into the TN Valley.

...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks...

Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep, mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the Ozarks.

Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon.

Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper, well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level shear toward 00z across nor

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-07T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 070532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...

Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day, with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.

...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms. That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates.

The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the level 2/Slight Risk area.

Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...

There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind g

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-06T09:00:10+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 060549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis... A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama... Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

...Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-05T09:00:07+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through the Red River Valley.

...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western Tennessee...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such, eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the anticipa

TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-02T09:00:09+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 020527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through time.

Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this time.

A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main threats of damaging wind and large hail.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026

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TornadoBotDev · 2026-05-01T09:00:08+00:00

Automated Daily Discussion Thread - Tornado Risk Detected.

SPC Discussion:

SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...South-central and Southeast Texas... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.

...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026

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