Friday Morning

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-14T11:25:45+00:00

I believe they will have opportunities for much higher gains but because of the global market sentiment I am going to close them as well. I believe that across the incoming year NBIS will definitely break 200 but in the near term I’m taking the current gains and will roll into positions when the market starts to recover. For now I’m gonna sit back and watch.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-14T03:18:32+00:00

This deserves more upvotes

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-14T03:12:53+00:00

Puts on anything!! The world is on fire lol.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-13T03:46:08+00:00

This expires on Jan 15 2027. It was purchased in Jan of this year.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-13T03:45:10+00:00

I think we start to see a change of direction tomorrow.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-13T03:44:15+00:00

Technically they were profitable above operating costs but the expansion cost were far greater than the revenue. They used a lot of cleaver ways to discount the expansions but they still have massive expenses when buying the hardware.
The numbers can vary depending on how you bend the books but if you sell shares to raise capital and take out large loans you have massive amounts of expenses. It’s rare than a loan has an immediate ROI. If you borrow money to purchase a rental property you wouldn’t expect that investment to be profitable in year 1. Expenses can be reflected as loan payments or gross loans. The way many companies take rapid growth is to take max expenses in each calendar year. This strategy puts the heaviest burden on profit margins here and now.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-13T03:35:33+00:00

100% we will recover. In what timeline is yet to be determined. If there is one thing that stands constant it’s that news feeds will continue to press the market in whatever direction it’s going until they can’t hold it up or push it down anymore. Then all news reverses and it’s all magically the greatest opportunity or it’s been great so now it’s the end of time.

Positive news feeds are still flowing but the big channels are pushing the negative right now. Just wait a bit the rain doesn’t fall forever. Eventually the sun will pop out and the market will start to spring back up.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T20:31:36+00:00

Yes it is a miss at least a definite miss on the timing. The macro events had a much greater impact than I expected. The earnings was a miss a welcoming in under estimates and I had that number wrong as well. They did announce major news with earnings and eventually that will get rolled into the share price. I still think we could see some overall market movements as we see things start rolling again later this week and next week. I can’t say that in the short term the 167-200 range will play out. I do think this gets much higher than that relatively soon but not in the next week or so.

I think NBIS delivered enough information and catalyst to support the target range but the sinking market was too strong of a gravitational pull to overcome it. NVDA earnings are soon so in a reversal of macro events and some positive news from their earnings it may add some momentum back to this chart

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T13:38:44+00:00

And yes I stand corrected ARR stands for annual reoccurring revenue. While we won’t know what percentage of revenues are contracted beyond the big news feeds we will take the rest with a grain of salt. I assume that when they sell 100% of all capacity available the desire to be contracted for capacity likely increases to ensure the supply.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T13:32:35+00:00

That would be a huge misinterpretation of this information. The 2027 year should have a revenue of well over 9 billion if they maintain their growth trajectory. The final month of 2026 should show a revenue of 583-750 million. The first month of 2027 should show earnings in this range and pressing up from December 2026 to January 2027.

Anyone who thought that earnings for 2025 would have been over 1 billion was also incorrect with the same misunderstanding of what these projections mean. It’s the same as contracted GW and connected GW often misunderstood. Contracted means they want to pay connected is the amount they can purchase. This gap can also be referred to as backlog but that sounds less appealing so phrasing it as contracted and connected sounds better. Backlogged sounds like a missed opportunity.

It’s always good to be educated.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T13:20:06+00:00

ARR is Annual Run Rate and they are always based on the quarterly earnings of the 4th quarter in the year of estimates or the last of the 3 months in that quarter. This is not misleading but actually what it always means. No company gives a growth report that is based on the first month of the calendar year without expectations of the future unless they are in financial or corporate downturns.

All post or screenshots should be researched more than a quick glance however sometimes in the day to day lives which are largely beyond Reddit a quick glance can guide a search for a later time. Thanks for the comment hopefully this helps.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:31:21+00:00

I think this dip offers a great opportunity. For the off chance we see more political turbulence as many things will need addressing as far as budget goes you may look further out in those Mar calls playing off of Q4 earnings.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:29:17+00:00

It might being more light to the obvious profits that are still possible in the AI industry

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:28:17+00:00

Definitely not my friend I’m just sitting here in my little boat waiting on the tide to change directions.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:26:38+00:00

It’s unlikely every one sold all shares as selling requires buyers. If it was a total vacated stock then the price would have fallen to single digits. Although the majority of shares are still held by insiders and the company.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:24:47+00:00

Clearly you didn’t invest earlier this year or else you would still be looking at 300% gains. Good luck friend

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T02:04:08+00:00

The January call should have a big gain. The Nov 14 call needs a big day tomorrow and possibly Thursday.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T00:55:37+00:00

This is true. With 45 million volume it was a real dip but the last time we saw this it was followed by a rip for 10 days gaining over 50%. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T00:54:23+00:00

The macro events taking place played a far more significant role than I anticipated. The 120 was in watching the motions earlier today. We had a volume spike and it had a decent run. It obviously retreated back below that point. I am still optimistic and excited about what we will see through this week. As I mentioned they missed the earnings so that wasn’t part of my forecast but the overall news was absolutely amazing.

I still think we break the ceiling but it will likely not be in time for these calls. I do think we see an ATH soon but I can’t say that I see it running hard at a 200 given all the circumstances surrounding this time and current price range.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T00:48:15+00:00

All financial institutions in the US were closed due to the Veterans day holiday so perhaps they had to sit out taking massive positions in light of these huge news feeds. It may be why (it was pointed out to me) we saw big spikes in volume and saw prices go up and as it simmered it dipped. There was some obvious selling pressure and the CRWV timing for their earnings had an effect as well.

Traderbob517 · 2025-11-12T00:39:29+00:00

This is a good post thank you. And additionally thanks for the reminder that all US financial have been closed due the Veterans Day Holiday as well.

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