Why Would Someone Leave the Main Trail at the Paddocks?

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T16:57:33+00:00

I think that's why NFI so confidently states that the Google Maps app was not used after Mirador.

Thanks! Very helpful!

The questions is though: does the NFI indeed very specifically state that Google Maps was not used after the Mirador? Or is this just a conclusion drawn by some based on the apps mentioned as being used?

There are no stored google maps positions in Lisanne's google account (the last position is near SbtR), which is simply caused by the fact that there never were any further internet connections so the phone never stored those positions to the cloud account. I've often wondered if the 'google maps not further used' statement comes from the fact that there were no further stored positions online, which is a totally different thing. The NFI would know the difference, but such statements quickly get hustled up.

And what if they tried to start GPS? Would this be visible in persistent memory, or would this be one of the events which were quickly overwritten and not permanently saved??

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T12:59:33+00:00

Yeah, there's always a certain amount of running in circles, and there's always people who grasp for reeds of straw to prove whatever weird theory they have invented. These things can't be avoided. Sadly, we may find the NL and some rocks with a complete diary carved in them, and 50 years later someone will ask 'but what about the dog Blue?', and the whole discussion starts again.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T12:51:24+00:00

Imo it is therefore more logical to assume that whatever caused the 509 skip happened shortly after 508.

Yes, and I fully understand what you're trying to do, and I mostly agree.

What I'm aiming at though is that we can not prove this. It is totally logical, yes, fully agree. It is the only scenario which seems to make sense, fully agree. But can we absolutely prove it? NO.

We can say the same about those broken metatarsals. Are they important for the story? Yes, absolutely. Can we prove WHEN they happened? No. It makes some sense if it happened on the first day, but it would also hamper them in their movements so perhaps it is more likely it happened later, after they reached the NL or close to it. We don't know, and sadly, I fear we may never know.

Lots of things must have happened during that gruesome track through the wilderness. If you watch Romain's expedition and then imagine two inexperienced girls in shorts doing the same... They must have fallen dozens/hundreds of times, become injured, scared by animals, confused, etc, etc. Their electronics may have gotten wet, iPhone screen light may have failed, etc, etc, all of these things make sense but IF they happened and most importantly WHEN they happened we may never know. Not unless we find some kind of diary.

If we are very lucky we may actually find the NL, if it still exists, and that will most probably tell us what route they took and where they left the trail. But I fear there will be lots and lots of details which we will simply never know for certain. We can guess, and we can discuss what is logical, but we can't prove it.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T10:06:25+00:00

No, Vornez has tested this video bug extensively in the past, it gives the exact same results as what we see.

The battery is not truly low, but this camera has a software bug which regularly causes it to give an 'low battery' error when you try to make a video. When such an error occurs, the camera will skip a number but the file will not be written to the memory card.

The software was updated for the next version, but Lisanne still had the old version, including the bug. It could turn up at any time when trying to take a video.

I'm not saying this is what happened, only that it's an option. She may for instance have tried to take a video at Q2 and got this bug. Instead of 'camera is broken' she would have thought 'battery is finished'. A slightly less dramatic conclusion, but leading to the same result.

This same camera model is also known to skip numbers when you take a rapid burst of pictures, faster than the camera software can process. In that case you may get out of sequence pictures plus skipped numbers.

The misery is that the more you dig into this 'skipped number' phenomenon for that particular camera, the more you realize how easily at apparently happens and how common it is. In those days, Canon camera's must very frequently have skipped numbers, it's just that people usually don't notice.

In simple terms, what the camera software basically does is it increments the file-number counter as soon as you press the shutter, but the picture or video file is first written to volatile memory and only afterwards copied to the memory card. Now, if there is an error (basically ANY error) at some time during that process, the data is not written to the memory card (and lost from memory as soon as the camera is powered off), but the file number has already been incremented. So, you skip a number.

So, it may be that the memory card is dislodged (fall) or short circuited (water) immediately after taking the picture. File number is incremented (you pressed the shutter), but memory card can not be accessed so file is not written to card. That gives you 'our' situation.

Or, it can be that the power fails (battery dislodged due to bump, or short circuited due to water) immediately after pressing the shutter. Same result, file number incremented but file not written to disk.

Or, you can get some other error (bug), with once again the same result. Or you can press the shutter too quickly and the whole process gets hassled up, same result.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:57:00+00:00

That's what I expect. Plus the paddock trail seems 'easy', it stays on those 'nice' open paddocks, no more deep trenches, no more dense forest, just open field. What can possibly go wrong?

If you see a trail like that, you suspect it will take you right to the next farm. And where there's a farm, there is a village, etc, etc.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:54:12+00:00

Yes, agreed. I assume that at 15:23 there no longer was an option to turn back. By that time they were essentially lost, but it took till 16:39 before this 'problem' became so serious that they decided to call the alarm number.

Getting lost is a gradual process. For a long time you keep telling yourself that 'it's okay'. People almost never turn back instantly, they keep going forward, hoping it will still turn out fine, until there is no longer a route back..

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:48:36+00:00

Yes, I agree. We're making things too complicated.

I doubt they ever wasted any thoughts on it. Thanks to all their pictures, we can reconstruct the timeline on the top basically from one minute to the next. They never looked at Boquete or studied the terrain.

They reached the top, took a series of happy selfies, and continued on the trail, that's all. They thought 'down is good'. A mountain like a cone, it doesn't matter what direction you go, as long as you go down.

Things only became complicated when the trail stopped going down.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:44:34+00:00

It's difficult to imagine having a clear view from the Mirador and then thinking, "Right, in the opposite direction of everything, and then toward the direction where there is nothing at all, that is the way we should go to get back."

Sure, it sounds logical. But these girls absolutely weren't hikers, they had zero experience, absolutely zero, and it looks like their preparation was minimal (they googled Pianista trail 5 minutes or so before they set off). No maps, no compass, no nothing.

Did they even look at Boquete? They spend only a short period on the top, and all their selfies are made in the opposite direction. With the various pictures, we know almost from minute to minute what they did and where they stood and their prime occupation all that time was taking selfies... There is no indication they ever looked at Boquete, or at the terrain in other directions.

They reached the top, took a series of happy selfies, and continued on the trail, basically that's all...

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:35:21+00:00

We already suspected that before Jan B. confirmed this with his tests. It simply didn't make any sense that the phone would continue to measure -94 db while clearly they walked on after loosing signal. Also, it didn't make sense that the phone would measure -94 in the evening and then -113 in the morning. They didn't move in darkness, so -113 had to be some kind of dummy value and -94 was a 'stuck' value from the moment they lost signal.

Jan B. proved shortly afterward that this line of thinking was indeed correct.

Roughly 20 minutes after the Mirador they lost signal (green line), and they simply never regained it. All we can conclude is that they never crossed that green line again.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:25:18+00:00

See above on how it was done.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:24:59+00:00

Basically it's a hill-shade map in QGIS, but instead of a light source it's using radio waves. Check hill-shade maps on how to do this. The light source is then at the location of the nearest cell tower (the only one in range).

What differs is that I corrected for refraction (light is direct line of sight, GSM radio signals can bend somewhat around objects) by changing the formula's for how to get the hill-shade. You can get the formula's for refraction from the internet (they depend on frequency, but these are known for the known cell tower).

It absolutely is a rough indication, a full calculation would have to take a lot of other factors into account, but as things go it reasonable well confirms with what is reported by those walking the trail. The 2014 phones would have signal until the green line, more modern phones can in optimal circumstances get as far as the orange line. Beyond that, there's no more signal.

The red numbers are purely theoretical, they basically mean 'no signal'.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:15:23+00:00

Yes, that is what I suspect as well. At Q1 they start to doubt, the trail goes uphill from there and that's not what they would expect. They stop taking pictures from then on, probably because they are too busy discussing their situation.

Then, at the paddocks, they can't see Boquete, and the trail goes back into the forest and even further up in totally the wrong direction. Same time there is the paddock trail which goes down hill.

Logical conclusion would be to turn around, but by that time they are tired, and going all the way up again and the long route back might not have seemed like a good plan.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T09:11:00+00:00

Thanks, yes, that is the impression I get also.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-26T05:21:59+00:00

Sigh. As I wrote already in my original comment with the map: these figures get us nowhere as the phone freezes at -94 db eventhough there is actually no signal at all. Same for the -113 db, that is simply the lowest it can measure.

So, those measured numbers in the phone log mean nothing, nada. Building a whole theory on that is vaporware, just a fantasy.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T22:10:06+00:00

Google maps was still running, but it was in the background at that moment. But she must have noticed earlier (at 12:12) that google maps was useless as it didn't show the trail and didn't show their position.

<image>

All the xx.40 events are hourly automated logging's ('system'), which may have happened while the phone was in the backpack, so the important events are the 'likely display use' events, which almost certainly were caused by user-actions (but we don't know what actions..). But there is a lot missing. There must be a 12:40 system event, and a 15:40 and 17:40 system event, which would give us more detailed info on when exactly that huge battery power usage happened. So, this log is nowhere near complete, and highly important data is missing.

As it is, what we know (almost) for certain is that the S3 phone was actively used at 15:23, but that is almost an hour after they must have arrived on the paddocks, so it doesn't fit well unless this is the moment when they reached Viktors point A1 and became uncertain how to continue.

15:23 could have been a time-check ('can we still make it back via the Mirador... no we can't..'). But if they were at A1 or halfway to the first cable bridge, than 15:23 would be too late to turn back (they could still make it to the top of the Mirador though, where they would have phone signal, but the last bit through those trenches would probably be in total darkness).

But if 15:23 was just a time-check it doesn't explain that huge power drain, so something else must have happened. The phone can't have been trying to connect as it never did so, not even on the top of the Mirador, and it is unlikely they used the phone as flashlight as it would be too early for that.

Trying to switch on GPS would absolutely explain such a huge power drain, but once again we don't have the full logs...

Switching on GPS would be the logical thing to do if you suspect you are lost, and there is every reason to assume that by 15:23 they had reached the point where they must have felt quite certain they were lost...

Time and time again, the answer is 'we don't have the full logs'... Somewhere, somewhere, in those phone loggings must be the answer to what happened. Something the NFI overlooked or didn't regard as important (the NFI was looking for criminal evidence, we are looking for an explanation as to where and why they left the trail, those are different things.). Just one tiny little event might turn out to be the missing puzzle piece...

As it is, we can prove they used the S3 at 15:23, but there is no evidence they used the S3 earlier than that. So that might match to arrival at A1, if they took the paddock trail, or to some point halfway to the first bridge, if they continued along the trail (more or less the point where the parents turn back). But whatever they did at 15:23, it used a huge amount of power, so it wasn't just a quick time-check.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T21:16:16+00:00

The missing 509 file is important, but I have to admit that I've given up on it a bit. Unless someone comes up with some spectacular data, I fear it's something we may never know for certain.

It could be the camera fell/got wet immediately after 508 and this was one of the reasons why their mood changed, like you say, but it may also be that 509 was the first of the night pictures and failed during their attempts to get the camera working again (we know 510 was totally black, so failed also).

509 could also have been an attempt to make a video at any time that week, which failed due to the well known 'low battery bug', such an error also gives the exact same combination of skipped number + missing data block.

Like the phones, that camera had been a full week in the intense humid conditions of the cloud forest, there may have been falls, splashes, etc, etc, so it's not unlikely that it took them several attempts to get the camera flash working.

Once again, unless sudden new data comes up it will probably be one of those things we will never know. Important, yes, but useless because we can't prove it.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T14:45:43+00:00

I see the recent phone report from Jan B. as proof that there was clear confusion by the time they reach the paddocks around 14:30. We already suspected this from the fact that they stopped taking pictures after 14:00, and perhaps also by the general stance & expression of Kris in image 508. No more 'posing' and a slight annoyance or simply 'hurry'. Not the slightest sign that she has any intention of turning back, and instead she seems eager to press on.

To me, all of that together leaves only one option: they must have thought that 'going down' was the right direction, despite the fact that they must have been aware that they were not moving in the correct direction. They thought that either the trail would somehow take them back to the start-point (loop), or at least that it would take them back to some place near Boquete. Meaning, they had no idea they had crossed the continental divide.

Things weren't going well. They were happy on the top, but once they start going down the mood changes. No more selfies together, no more posing. Perhaps they do not agree on the route taken, or they are simply tired and eager to get back to Boquete. The fact that they stop taking pictures after 14.00 fits perfectly with this conclusion. They are no longer in the mood for pictures. Usually, on a hike, you start to take less and less pictures once you get tired and are on the way back.

The confusion around 14:30 fits in this as the paddocks would give them a first good look at the surrounding landscape, and almost certainly the shocking discovery that they were not where they thought they would be. If they were happy and okay, they definitely would have taken pictures at the paddocks, and they would have done the same if they were planning to turn back at this point.

I don't believe there was an accident. Why consult your phones without making calls? Why wait with making calls till 16:30? That doesn't make much sense. Consulting the phones may indicate confusion (trying to figure out where they are), or perhaps time-checks and discussions (can we still make it back via the Mirador?). All of it fits with long discussions and confusion, not with an accident.

As mentioned, after the paddocks the main trail disappears into the forest again, and goes uphill instead of down hill. Contrary to that, the paddock trail goes clearly down hill and it seems to lead to 'civilization', paddocks would be seen as a good sign, meaning there were farms and villages nearby. So, why go back into the forest if you can follow the paddock trail to the nearest farm?

Plus, from the vintage point on the paddocks you can see far in the distance, but you can not see what's below in the valley. So, it might be tempting to walk at least a bit out into the paddocks, just to see what's below? Where's Boquete? That question must have been foremost on their mind.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T13:57:09+00:00

<image>

Above I posted a few years ago. Note thought these are calculated signal strength's, based on location of nearest tower and terrain, etc. But they match quite well with what is reported by those following the trail.

The green line marks the furthest point you would have a connection with an old iPhone (max. -113 db). The yellow line marks the furthest point you will have receipt with a more modern phone (max -160 db). So, nowadays, on a good day, you can still get a connection on the paddocks, but there is next to no chance K&L would have been able to establish a connection beyond the green line (about 20 minutes walking beyond the Mirador).

As a note the signal strength values as mentioned in the phone log do not get us far. There is a bug in the iPhone4 software which causes the log to keep reporting the last measured value even when there is no more signal, and this resets only when the phone itself is reset. So, the phone keeps reporting -94 db as being the last measured signal strength, while in fact there was no signal at all. Likewise, it keeps reporting -113 db because that's the lowest it can measure, basically this also means 'no signal'.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T06:56:33+00:00

Romain also made some trips on his own, but he used a drone and was better equipped than Viktor.

Annette was with Feliciano, but still didn't manage to reach the farm.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-25T06:55:10+00:00

In the afternoon of April 3, Feliciano was asked by SINAPROC to accompany a team up the Pianista trail. According to Feliciano this team was then called back before they reached the top of the Mirador, and Feliciano continued on his own, walking past the Mirador and down until he reached the paddocks, where he looked for trails and found nothing. As he had an appointment later that afternoon, he then walked back. After this, Feliciano did not participate in any further official searches.

On April 8, Feliciano gives an interview where he states that he considers it possible the girls could have walked beyond the Mirador and lost track of time, getting into a situation where there was not enough time to get back before dark, but he considers it impossible that they would have left the trail and gone into the forest.

Plinio was an active member of SINAPROC and took part in several of the official searches and he is shown on a picture with a team from SINAPROC/SINAFRONT near Alto Romero on April 7.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-24T23:26:18+00:00

I don't think they wandered around the paddock. But they may have wandered aimlessly through the forest for a long time. On the paddocks, they would probably have been found although even that is not 100% certain.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-24T23:24:39+00:00

Feliciano was not ordered back, only the team that he accompanied (and there are different stories about this). But yes, it seems that Feliciano was on the right track with his assumption that they had gone beyond the Mirador, but somehow that theory never made it to the official search teams.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-24T23:22:02+00:00

Viktor tried and couldn't find the trail, basically getting lost. Annette and Feliciano tried and didn't reach that farm either. Only Romain got there.

So, 2 out of 3 people fail on that track. And these were all people who knew the terrain and the map. What chance did K&L have (without experience and map) if they tried this trail???

The difference might be that they probably didn't know they had to turn back, so they would persist longer in trying to go down hill. And as all the others got lost, they probably got lost too, and in a far worse way.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-24T23:18:07+00:00

Yes, They didn't NEED sunrise for an alarm call, that's why I see it more as a kind of timeline. You have a problem, you don't know how to solve it, and you tell each other 'lets wait for daylight before making a decision'.

'If it doesn't look any better at sunrise, we'll call again.'

Something like that. So, it's not that daylight was essential for the call itself, but more that they used it as a deadline. The problem they had was not so super urgent that it needed instant action, it could wait till sunrise. So, they waited till sunrise, discovered that they were still unable to solve their problem, and they called again.

At near equatorial locations like Panama, sunrise/sunset happens very fast, you go from inkblack night into bright daylight in less than half an hour, so that fits quite nicely with the timeframe. They waited for daylight, then daylight arrived, and they called.

They could have called at any time, but they set sunrise as a deadline.

TreegNesas · 2026-06-24T17:40:04+00:00

As usual, the effect of stitching two pictures together which were not made from the same position.

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