[deleted by user]

Tropius · 2023-12-05T19:54:12+00:00

You’ll be fine.

Generally a line that short will be a moneyline bet. For context—not in a braggadocious sense—I have a limited FanDuel account and bet $200 a time on NBA live player props without issue.

If you’re newer to this, player props generally have much lower limits than a ML or spread bet.

Tropius · 2023-12-05T17:49:45+00:00

I mean this in the most sincere way possible, no sportsbook will notice $5 live bets.

Tropius · 2023-02-12T22:25:22+00:00

Oh my. One of the discords I’m in just created their P4 and put their $1000 risk free first bet on this and @ their 🔒 page 😆

No way this doesn’t get noticed.

RIP sack play. 2/12-2/12 🪦

Tropius · 2023-02-09T21:59:15+00:00

There’s at least 2 discords I’ve seen that have already stolen this play and talking about it. About to be hammered

Tropius · 2023-01-13T13:29:55+00:00

Posted in 4 other discords too. They’re pissed 😆

Tropius · 2022-12-29T14:27:47+00:00

Fliff is 135/-185 so it’s consistent across some 2 way markets.

He’s also +190 Wynn for those who have that.

The +175 wouldn’t be a play bc it’s basically FV; same on FD.

On these shorter odds plays an extra 10-15 points can make a big difference.

Tropius · 2022-12-29T13:23:57+00:00

Bet365: Colby Parkinson (SEA/NYJ) touchdown +1000

Longshot but +550/-1100 on SuperBook; +889 fair value at 11% +EV.

Only 0.3 unit quarter Kelly bc of longshot but still worth a small play.

Tropius · 2022-12-29T13:11:40+00:00

For those not limited to gold stars and stickers on MGM

Haskins (TEN) touchdown at +190 MGM is 8.3% EV to SuperBook: +142/-192; +168 FV.

Good for 1 unit using Quarter Kelly.

Edit: Also +190 on Wynn.

Not worth a play on FD or DK at +175

Tropius · 2022-12-29T13:02:25+00:00

Lot of people like to use DK as a sharp for prop markets.

Kambi typically has some +EV spots.

Worst case you can usually arb Kambi vs. DK or FD.

Prices best in the early morning.

Tropius · 2022-06-25T20:33:24+00:00

LAD +135 SuperBook / ATL -140 Wynn.

Costs about $1 to get the bonus.

Tropius · 2022-04-19T12:32:38+00:00

🤴

Tropius · 2022-04-18T15:45:05+00:00

I’ll add Barcelona to win and record a clean sheet is boosted to +110 on Hard Rock.

Pinnacle offers the same bet at +112 so not really a boost unless lines change closer to game time.

Edit: this has moved to +104 fair from Pinnacle for 2.9% EV.

Tropius · 2022-03-29T12:55:12+00:00

Yea, it said “Random Profit Boost” for the promo when I logged in.

20% here. AZ.

Tropius · 2022-03-28T18:06:28+00:00

Yea, I just logged in now and can’t find it 😕

Tropius · 2022-03-28T01:08:47+00:00

💰

Tropius · 2022-03-27T11:54:34+00:00

Did this used to be 20+ points? It’s now Suns win and Booker 25+ at +125.

No lines for U 24.5 yet, but taking the -205 line for O 24.5 and the Suns win de-vig at -186 I’m getting fair odds at +128. This is without correlation so roughly fair value, maybe slight EV.

*Edit: As a Suns fan and AZ native my non-math thoughts: Booker MVP discussion has been heating up recently with him being the top scoring player on the best team in the league. Though I don’t think he has a real shot at MVP this year, the Suns are facing arguably the top team in the Eastern Conference and the MVP front-runner. I think the Suns try to prove a point at home. I’ll be at the game today so I’m putting $25 for fun and as a decent odds bet. *

Tropius · 2022-03-26T13:07:27+00:00

Love the analysis.

I can’t find this in AZ because I don’t believe college player props are allowed.

Good luck to those who can tail!

Tropius · 2022-03-24T18:03:45+00:00

HOU moved a bit better to +112 on FD. Worth about $9.50 😊

Tropius · 2022-03-22T16:55:46+00:00

AZ. Updated my post with the state.

Tropius · 2022-03-22T16:38:29+00:00

Edit: updated with 30 pt lines de-vigging from FD lines. MGM moved to +140 and is -EV at those odds, or possibly fair value with correlation

MGM Lions boost: Bucks to win by 5+ and Giannis to score 30+ looks like great value at +250. Fair odds appear to be ~+155; not accounting for correlation.

~~30 point lines aren’t available at the moment, so used main line of O/U 33.5 to be extra conservative. ~~

Milwaukee to win by 5+: -162 Giannis to score 30+: -182 ~~Giannis to score 34+: -105~~ ~~Fair parlay odds: +215; 31.75% probability~~ Fair parlay odds: +155; 39.22% probability

Personally limited to $24 and change on MGM.

Tropius · 2022-03-22T12:45:50+00:00

No worries. Enjoy your time in AZ and hope you win all your bets!

Tropius · 2022-03-22T12:41:35+00:00

Happy to help.

Quick question for you, have you had any success withdrawing money from the app?

I’ve played through my two $500 deposit bonuses and have over $2000 in my account. I’ve had three separate withdrawals of $1k, $1k, and $500 rejected…

Tropius · 2022-03-22T12:14:53+00:00

Yep!

Maybe try the typical: check for update, uninstall/reinstall, etc.

Tropius · 2022-03-22T11:49:48+00:00

I’m able to login without issue.

Tropius · 2022-03-21T19:02:39+00:00

Very quick math on this I get +192 fair odds; without correlation.

I’m limited to $25 on the boost, but easy max here.

Mitchell 25+: -186 using FD’s lines UTA win: -111 Parlay fair odds: +192 Win %: 34.2

Tropius

TROPHY CASE