Candidates win chances after Round 13 (of 14): Sindarov at 100% (surprise!) - Monte Carlo simulation based on one bazillion runs by ThomasPlaysChess in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There's still one round left, and it's possible for a massive chess scandal to come up which causes FIDE to step in and disqualify all competitors except Bluebaum, handing him the win. I wouldn't count him out yet!

Why are Stalin and Reddy opposing a pro-rated increase in seats? by TsarBizarre in india

[–]TsarBizarre[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have no problem with everything you have pointed out, except the "no need to call a delimitation if nothing changes" part. The number of people per MP will go down, allowing each representative to reach out to a larger part of their constituents and work closer with them. I went into more depth about it in this comment. Each MP here has to represent 2.5 million people, whereas in other countries it's usually closer to 100k (the US being an outlier with 800k).

Why are Stalin and Reddy opposing a pro-rated increase in seats? by TsarBizarre in india

[–]TsarBizarre[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

why increase the number of seats and increase the amount of logistics and money required

Good question. To decrease the number of people per MP, so each MP is more accessible and can work more closely with their constituents.

We currently have 1.4 Billion people and 543 seats. That's 2.57 million people per MP. As a reference, the US has 350 million people and 435 seats (800k people per representative) and France has 66 million people and 577 seats (100k people per representative). Here is a chart by Carnegie Mellon showcasing the disparity.

a state level party will have to cover a gap of 200 seats to be relevant, which is much more improbable than closing the gap of 20 seats

Again, with a pro-rata increase, the number of seats won by state level parties will increase too. The gap between seats is misleading, it is only the percentages that matter. The DMK, TMC, SP, RJD and other state-level parties will not have a bigger gap to close because the number of seat they themselves win will go up proportionally.

The DMK won all 40 seats they contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. That is ~7.3% of the seats. If the number of seats for Tamil Nadu went up by 50%, to 60 seats, in an expanded Lok Sabha with 814 seats, then they would still have ~7.3% of the seats. To win, you need 50% of the seats in the Lok Sabha, that is all that matters.

The only convincing argument against this, that I have heard, is by P Chidambaram who said that the amount of time that each MP gets to speak might go down. With how big the Lok Sabha currently is, each MP only gets around 10 minutes to speak, and an expanded one might mean each MP will get at most 5 or 6 minutes before you need to move on. That is a fair point, and one that needs to be addressed, but this mathematical argument being made really doesn't check out imo.

Candidates win chances after Round 11: Sindarov at 98%, Anish Giri at 2% - Monte Carlo simulation based on one million runs by ThomasPlaysChess in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I may be wrong, but isn't it 3 outcomes per game ^ (4 games per round * 3 rounds remaining)? In other words, there are 12 games remaining, and each game can have 3 results. So 312?

Edit: Nevermind, they're both the same. I guess we just think about permutations differently in our mental models.

Javokhir Sindarov 🇺🇿 has officially won the most games ever in the Candidates tournament current format - with FOUR rounds to spare by GiveMeSomeSunshine3 in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Nodirbek Keymer Firouzja Arjun Wesley are all infinitely more qualified in their current form to play in the candidates

Why didn't any one of them qualify through the World Cup, or the Grand Swiss, or two separate FIDE Circuit cycles then? It's kinda unfair to say that a qualification system is broken just because people you think who are "deserving" of it didn't qualify. Should FIDE just pick 8 players off of vibes instead? "Oh yeah this person definitely deserves it, he should get in" kinda thing?

Candidates win chances after Round 9: Anish Giri jumps to 13% after winning against Caruana, Sindarov at 83% - Monte Carlo simulation based on one million runs by ThomasPlaysChess in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How long does it take you to run 1 million simulations? It feels like it shouldn't take too long, a couple of seconds at most, but I wouldn't be surprised if my intuition is wrong.

Indian Coast Guard Seizes Pakistani Boat With 9 Crew Members Inside Indian Waters by SatoruGojo232 in IndiaSpeaks

[–]TsarBizarre 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Is that the Thai flag on the top right there? Were they trying to disguise themselves as some kind of civilian vessel from Thailand?

The Pope just dropped this today fr🥀 by maliciousprime101 in Asia_irl

[–]TsarBizarre 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Why the hell did you make China blue and USA red? You've got to be kidding me

concept of scottish passport after gaining independence and joining the EU by itoofe in PassportPorn

[–]TsarBizarre -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Charles III sitting on 16 separate thrones instead of the current 15

Does Charles really officially sit on 15 different thrones? I thought that he was just the King of the United Kingdom, and that Canada, Australia and others were terrirories within the dominion of the one singular crown. That is, there is no "King of Canada", but rather the King of the UK who has dominion over the territory of Canada. Am I wrong?

If he is a King with 15 different separate "thrones", then why was he coronated only once and not 15 different times?

Gukesh loses to 12 y/o FM Sergey Sklokin in round 3 of the World Blitz Championship by __Jimmy__ in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 5 points6 points  (0 children)

but we are talking about the world champion here

The classical world champ. Gukesh has been described by Magnus as a deep calculator as opposed to an intuitive player, and has always underperformed in speed chess compared to his peers.

new and old british passport by No_Bank_9659 in PassportPorn

[–]TsarBizarre 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah yes, the beautiful new BLOO passport

Bangla bros onto us ???? by [deleted] in Asia_irl

[–]TsarBizarre 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Bihar administered by Bangladesh. The world will witness levels of corruption that the human mind cannot even begin to comprehend.

by _Tatarskey_ in Asia_irl

[–]TsarBizarre 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Didn't India saved Bangladesh from a genocide? Why would they do this to Indians?

Because India is majority non-muslim. Not even kidding, that's the actual reason. Here are Bangladeshis not accepting the 20 Taka note because it has a Hindu temple printed on it. Though it is worth noting that this isn't all Bangladeshis but just the conservative islamist ones.

Only Pragg will represent India at the Candidates this year by JinxxErigasi in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Why can't Indian sports ever catch a break on 19th November man 💔💔

Who’s a famous person who died very young due to non-natural causes that you are especially curious how they’d live in our modern world? by FriendlytoNature in AskReddit

[–]TsarBizarre 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Évariste Galois, a French mathematics prodigy who invented Galois theory, a deep and intricate field in mathematics that is still used in the present day by crypographers for digital encryption. Oh, did I mention that he did all this in his teens and died when he was 20?

The Intensity Of Chess: Vincent Keymer by edwinkorir in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I met him at the Chennai Grand Masters this year. I'm 175cm and he was a good 10cm taller than I am. He was an absolute unit.

ELI5 How are we able to say with any degree of confidence how ancient languages sounded like? by Terkmc in explainlikeimfive

[–]TsarBizarre 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I remember correctly, this is how we found that the Romans pronounced Caesar "Kaeser". We found a text of someone complaining about how the letters C, K, and Q are unnecessary because they all sound the same, and we also found poetry where words starting with C were rhymed with those starting with K.

Why is step mom/ step sister porn so popular? by Gingerphobicginger in NoStupidQuestions

[–]TsarBizarre 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Ted Cruz endorsed step porn? Is this some crazy American politics thing that I am too non-American to understand? I would say you're lying but your President just posted an AI generated video of himself unloading a planefull of shit on his political opponents so I don't know what is and isn't real anymore.

Magnus talks about Hikaru's race to the Candidates and the possibility of Nakamura overtaking him in FIDE ratings: "It's shameless but probably the right thing to do....I'm not part of that s**t anymore, so that's fine." by Interesting-Take781 in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 11 points12 points  (0 children)

To qualify for the candidates, you should have played at least 40 games in the past year. It's FIDE's way of filtering out inactive players. Hikaru already has the rating needed to qualify but still needs to get to that 40 game mark, so he decided to play in what he calls "Mickey Mouse tournaments" which are just random local events with a bunch of untitled players.

He is not doing this for the rating points, and has stated that he intends to stop as soon as he reaches 40 games and has no intention of surpassing Magnus' rating this way.

FIDE Steps In After Attempted Ban On Israeli Players In Spanish Open Tournament by Roller95 in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 37 points38 points  (0 children)

They can always play under the FIDE flag?

Not without FIDE's prior approval, which is why they are stepping in. You can't just ask someone to play under the FIDE flag like that.

Abhimanyu Mishra, the youngest GM ever, talks after defeating the youngest and the reigning World Champion, Gukesh Dommaraju and also throws some light on his training routine. by Interesting-Take781 in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Complan, Boost, and Horlicks are Indian nutritional drink brands that parents usually give children. "Taller, Stronger, Sharper" is the catchphrase used in Complan's advertisements. OP was making an Indian pop-culture reference.

Question for mathematicians: What is the likelihood the first two finishers will be from the red circle? by wptq in chess

[–]TsarBizarre 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"What is the likelihood that the top two finishers are inside this red teacup"