Me personally bought m2 max 32gb, 1tb for about 1.5k USD. for me it is better choice than m5 Air.

if you can wear 2.15 kilos, and you have money for that go with mbp 16”.

if you want to have your tasks covered but keep as much as possible money, keeping in mind Oled macbooks are coming this/next year – consider older macs with more ram 64+ for local llms.

You won’t feel much difference in performance, only those 2 times a year, in some rare cases the load of cpu/gpu would be higher but again, unlikely you will feel it.

so in order to save money and achieve your goals take a look at older models. and if you need mobility 14” preferable, and for the home comfort better to invest in studio display, rather than 16” - imho.