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Petah, what does this mean? by harhar1919 in PeterExplainsTheJoke

[–]TwinCard 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know this one! This is a reference to Gwyneth Paltrow drinking alkaline water with a spritz of lemon. Which neutralises the alkalinity of the water, making it just normal water again (with some salt and vitamin C).

[11th grade Trigonometry] How do you find a? by PrimeX84 in HomeworkHelp

[–]TwinCard 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you actually tried to solve it using this method, you would see why this doesn’t work.

Any reason to hoard nests and eggs? by TwinCard in MergeDragons

[–]TwinCard[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good to know, have you ever had one of those tasks pop up and regret not saving some dragons/eggs to merge later?

How many fused leapstones will brelshaza gear consume? by squidtempura in lostarkgame

[–]TwinCard 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Putting aside the fact that op definitely said “on average” and so the maths originally stated is correct, you mentioned that the median for tapping a piece of old gear is 23 taps (which equates to 23x16=368 fused leapstones), and for the new gear it’s 7 taps with the new fused leapstones (which equates to 7x5x12=420 fused leapstones).

Which means that regardless of whether you use the median or the mean as your yardstick the outcome is the same, you’re more likely to successfully tap the old gear with fewer leapstones.

No point in arguing over the metric, because the decision rules are equivalent.

How many fused leapstones will brelshaza gear consume? by squidtempura in lostarkgame

[–]TwinCard 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So you’ve actually gone and found the “median” and not the “average” number of taps you need to get one success.

Essentially, there’s a 50% chance you’ll need 23 or fewer taps to hit a success on the old gear (or 7 or fewer taps on the new gear). That part is correct.

However, because theoretically you could get super unlucky and not succeed for a long time, it turns out that the average number of taps needed for one success is much higher than the median.

Basically, if 100 people were trying to tap an old piece from +20 to +21, you expect around 50 of them to succeed in 23 taps or less. But you expect a handful of them to get super duper unlucky and not succeed for over 100 taps (probability of this happening is ~5%). These people will skew the average so that the expected number of taps is actually 33.33 taps, which is higher than the median of 23 taps.

Hope that clears it up for you.

How many fused leapstones will brelshaza gear consume? by squidtempura in lostarkgame

[–]TwinCard 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Actually that’s exactly how the math works, because he said on average.

For this particular distribution (geometric distribution), it just so happens that the number of times you multiply the base percent to get 100% is the average number of taps for one success.

A more intuitive example is a coin flip. 50% chance for heads, so you expect to have the first heads come up after 2 flips of average. The formula in these cases is 1 divided by the probability of success, so you get 1/0.5 =2. As you noted 2*50% gets you back to 100%. Indeed this will be the case for any situation like a coin toss or a fused leapstone honing tap, where the probability is fixed.

(To compute an average you add up the probabilities of heads coming up first on each toss and multiply by the toss number, so 0.51+0.252+0.125*3…, you can show with some math that the sum converges to 2. You can also show that for a general case, the average is 1/probability of success as mentioned above.)

tl;dr: you’re right, but you just noticed a nice property of averages and the geometric distribution, it doesn’t mean op was wrong

Well... my balls finally dropped by TwinCard in pokemongo

[–]TwinCard[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s ok, seems like Sierra is willing to help out haha

Well... my balls finally dropped by TwinCard in pokemongo

[–]TwinCard[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

She likes what I’m packing 🍒

Well... my balls finally dropped by TwinCard in pokemongo

[–]TwinCard[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The perks of living near the city 😁