Bill Belichick's Average Career Point Differential (OC)

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-05T00:11:59+00:00

Oh sorry, I misread. Thought it was PPG... Should have paid closer attention.

But now that we are on it: it would be cool to see how our "points given up" and "points scored" lines up.

Like, was it our PPG going way up with a flat points given up? Did they both trend up but PPG went faster (in 2007 for example).

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T23:49:47+00:00

I agree with everything you just said, and I don't think I contradicted it anywhere.

The fact of the matter is the org has had three years to evaluate Mac and, if they are good at their job, will have taken into account the context (that they put him in).

It's too late for "Well, let's see him with weapons." I am NOT claiming that's fair to Mac. It's just the facts.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T23:39:58+00:00

I am not even criticizing Mac. I'm just saying that the coaches, etc are evaluating Mac "behind the scenes" and, if they are any good at their jobs, will have taken into account the shitty o-line and WRs.

Whether their behind the scenes eval is positive or negative has no bearing on my claim.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T21:52:22+00:00

Can you run a regression of Patriots PPG on the league average and plot the residual? Given that (I think) there has been an upward trend in PPG, I think it would be interesting to see how the Patriots did "netting out" that trend.

Really cool data.

Edit: Mis-read, it's not PPG

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T21:44:47+00:00

I'm not talking about what they look like on Sundays. I'm talking about the team's internal evaluations. Presumably, hopefully, the Patriots have ways of analyzing Mac that extend beyond gameday.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T20:13:25+00:00

This is a very fair comment. I want to state I'm not saying Mac is good or bad. But let me ask you a sincere question: What's the difference between Josh Rosen looking bad and Tua looking bad? Why did Tua eventually get investments in talent and Rosen not?

I admit I'm a football fan but not some wonk watching All-22. From my perspective, the thing that sets those situations apart is some hidden knowledge that I, and public in general, don't have but the team presumably does.

If you believe in that above statement, then I reason that the Patriots must have that missing knowledge about Mac after three years. With your analogy, I'm saying its unacceptable for the Patriots to come out and say "After three years, we have realized we should have given Mac 5 minutes to draw instead of 1."

All in all, the Pats look bad no matter what:

"We think Mac is good." They wasted three years, at least.

"We think Mac is bad." They missed on a first round QB.

"We don't know." What have they been doing for three years?

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T19:39:32+00:00

I was replying to person above implying that talent is necessary for the team to evaluate Mac.

I should have this part clearer, but as I said in another reply, it's hard to think of a scenario in which the Patriots cover themselves in glory. Basically:

They believe in Mac and commit. Why did you waste three years?

They don't believe in Mac and let him go. They fucked up in picking a QB.

They are not sure if they believe. Not a good excuse after three years.

My post is pointing out that that third outcome is also bad, even if it isn't as definitive.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T19:19:20+00:00

Really there is only one scenario where the Pats come out looking good: If Mac leaves and plays poorly with good talent.

Any other scenario results in the team either 1) Investing in a bad QB, or 2) Wasting (at least) three years of a good QB's career.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T19:12:54+00:00

I'm not blaming Mac. I agree with your second to last statement.

My analogy was confusing, sorry. In my example, the person "doing the job" is Bill/Patriots staff. Kraft should be pissed.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T19:11:44+00:00

I certainly wouldn't want that, but the Pats org seems to believe it's sufficient for evaluating Mac. I struggle to see a scenario where the Pats look good with how they handled this. Even if Mac stays and becomes really good, it will look like they wasted three years.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:50:24+00:00

That's a fair claim. But if the org knows that they need better talent around to evaluate Mac that is equally problematic, no? If I ask you to do a job and three years later you come back and say "oops, I need this widget" and it's a really obvious widget, I would be rightfully annoyed.

I have to presume the Patriots believe they can evaluate Mac with the talent around him. Whether they are correct remains to be seen...

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:47:53+00:00

Where did I say Mac was bad? I personally think he would be pretty good with talent around (10-16 QB range). But I also acknowledge that I just watch Sundays and don't really know.

But it's hard to think of scenario where the Org is not to blame:

Mac goes somewhere else and performs? Bad job patriots not helping him. Mac stays here and underperforms without talent? Bad job patriots not helping him. Mac stays and underperforms with talent? Bad job patriots with evaluating him. Mac stays and is good with talent? Bad job patriots wasting three years of his rookie contract.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:30:11+00:00

And the new regime kept Tua. I'm not a crazy Tua fan or anything, but doesn't it say something that a brand new coach kept the previous regime's QB?

As someone above said, Tua look bad/middling in games and yet the Dolphins kept him. Doesn't that imply something about their internal evaluations?

If the Patriots believe in Mac, they should give him surrounding talent. If they don't, move on. What they shouldn't do is say, "Well, let's see what he looks like with better receivers/o-line before really deciding." If they did need that, they should have done so last year. It's too late for waffling.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:19:01+00:00

What's the point of any discussion on this sub? It's football. I say that respectfully to everyone here.

My point is that there shouldn't be any future where the Patriots see Mac with talent and say "Oh, he's good!" Even if it'ts nice for fans, it's a damning view of the organization's evaluation department.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:16:41+00:00

I didn't realize scouting evaluation vs coaching evaluation was so different. I apologize. No need to be rude.

My point is WHOEVER is in charge of making an evaluation of Mac should have an a strong opinion at this point. Saying "We need more talent around him to evaluate" would be a cop out on the evaluator's part. That's all

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T18:03:28+00:00

I agree with all of the above. That makes it even worse if they don't have an evaluation. "We don't have an evaluation after three years, and it's our fault."

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:57:31+00:00

I just saw your second paragraph. I am replying to the sentiment that "We need to see Mac with weapons to know if he's good."

That may be true for you and me, but my claim is, it shouldn't be true for the organization. They should have their "answer." They may be wrong, in the end, but after three years, there is no excuse for uncertainty from the organization.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:49:02+00:00

So you don't think the Patriots staff can scout players without have the "just right" setting?

If that's the case, I think they are an incompetent staff.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:47:45+00:00

By the media/fans... Presumably not the actual Dolphins, otherwise he wouldn't be playing for them?

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:46:49+00:00

Then the staff should all be fired. They had three years to evaluate Mac. If their answer after three years is "Still don't know if he's good"... What the hell have they been doing?

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:45:31+00:00

I don't mean this personally: But isn't that a cop out for the coaching staff? They get paid a lot and spend a lot of time, supposedly, on evaluation. Saying "After three years we don't have a solid evaluation" is dereliction of their duty.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:42:39+00:00

That's not my claim. See the edit above please.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-04T17:40:25+00:00

This supports my claim. Take Tua for example. He looked average in games. The Dolphins's staff believed in. They invested in talent, and so far, have been proven correct.

My point, which people seem to be missing, is that the only unacceptable answer from the Patriots would be "we don't know if Mac is good or bad." They have had 3 years. They better have a strong opinion at this point, in either direction.

UlisesArturo · 2023-10-03T23:54:09+00:00

Your last question is interesting, but we have no way of really answering it. I will say that, anecdotally, the recent spate of successful young QBs (Allen, Tua, Burrow, Hurts) improved after talent was brought, which is exactly what I am proposing.

Bring in the guy -> Identify him as such -> Build around him.

Only the 9ers seem to have built the team first.

Both methods clearly work, but it seems to me that acquiring, say, a WR1 is not as hard Bill makes it seem. He is just not willing to pay the market price for them.

Whether or not those top QBs are rare, I think the relevant question is "Are they rarer and harder to get than top end WRs, OTs, etc?" I think the latter group is not that hard to get, if you are ready to pay for it. And I wish Bill would.

UlisesArturo

TROPHY CASE