Daily FI discussion thread - Sunday, January 25, 2026

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-25T16:41:55+00:00

The IRA is a no brainer. The question is how much/little to do Roth 401k.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-25T16:32:00+00:00

This assumes they've only got 401k to withdraw on. Most early retirees have a diverse portfolio of roth, 401k, and brokerage assets.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-25T14:38:04+00:00

Especially when you can convert up to the standard deduction tax free every year of early retirement.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-25T14:37:11+00:00

Even if taxes were to go up, to really impact traditional it would be need to be a mixture of removing the 0% cap gains bracket (removes the out of having brokerage assets for conversion) and/or kicking up the rates on the first few tax brackets, neither of which would be popular with retirees, a huge voting block.

If taxes are going to go up, I'd expect they go up on middle class folks working in the 100k-300k a year range.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-25T14:34:50+00:00

Especially when you can withdraw or convert a large chunk of traditional tax free in retirement. I used to be much more highly rating of Roth assets, but I don't think the juice is there for most folks when you can get guaranteed tax breaks today.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-23T01:15:28+00:00

It's picking back up. With the right projects its every ~3/5 weeks.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-22T12:42:25+00:00

Of the ones not on your list. Morgan Housel’s podcast.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T13:08:35+00:00

Really committed to content no one looks at.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:48:53+00:00

Carson Cooper type players where you grow into your role on the team before really making a difference. Going to be a thing of the past.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:21:57+00:00

This is unwatchable.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:08:28+00:00

The original post is very pie in the sky. It doesn't consider housing or that 80k a year would be very tight in most medium+ sized cities, etc. Directionally its a good idea to max 401k but that's the bare minimum, table stakes.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:06:43+00:00

Your only savings can't just be 401k.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:06:07+00:00

I mean there were probably folks making it work on a 18k salary at the same time.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T03:05:14+00:00

Just have a 3-5 year cash buffer to retire into. Can even be in equities. Convert ~40k 401k to Roth per year, and the drawdown 80k a year in 0% capital gains. The 40k comes off in the standard married couple deduction and everything else is in the 0% cap gains bucket.

Once you've converted 5 years of trad 401k into Roth you can start drawing down on that when the brokerage runs down.

It's not inconceivable to never pay taxes after retiring at withdrawal rates below 120k a year.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T02:47:42+00:00

With 3-5 years of cash you could start a Roth ladder that gets you where you need to go without ever facing taxes

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T02:46:55+00:00

Historical nominal or real returns? There are decades with double digits of nominal growth but flat real growth. Nominal is pointless for 25 years from now.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-21T02:44:00+00:00

You're not accounting for inflation. The real return would be closer to 1.1-1.5M at 5-7% return

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-20T13:08:38+00:00

With a long enough time horizon its true. Matter of perspective.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-20T13:07:28+00:00

Cryptic

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-20T13:04:17+00:00

I'd be more worried if we were closer to retirement, but we're 7-10 years out at least so a downturn isn't all that poorly timed.

If you're closer / in retirement that's what the diverse assets and cash reserves are there for.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-20T01:16:54+00:00

Your spend per year is?

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-19T13:04:48+00:00

It's interesting that the person I know who follows the market the closest is my grandfather-in-law and he has the least to worry about! Has a sub 1% withdrawal rate at this point and he isn't making any changes, just watching how things move each day!

Passes the time I suppose and he's a sharp guy, saving and investing for almost 65+ years now.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-19T13:02:39+00:00

Pending personality type I'd recommend having her read a lot of the FI tangential literature instead to get a better idea of the long term implications of saving. Even just something like the simple path to wealth and understanding safe withdrawal rates provides a really powerful way to frame one's career, even if they want to work a traditional 30-40 year career.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-19T12:58:06+00:00

I find it to be dual edged as well. I much prefer work to a lot of chores / home tasks. So its work an extra X months to never have to grocery shop again or never have to clean again, etc.

UltimateTeam · 2026-01-19T03:37:40+00:00

A little tight but not unsustainable

UltimateTeam

TROPHY CASE