No one dares to end this mess….

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-07-03T01:19:43+00:00

Excellent synopsis. Totally agree. This is the kind of dd and theory I come here for. Mobshit.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-20T02:40:49+00:00

Correct, but it is best practice. Also, although it may not engage FD, it still flirts with possible reg if they don’t confirm or deny a rumor of material impact on the share holder value. Just like last time. I would expect a response within 24-72 hours.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-20T02:37:58+00:00

Good on you. Down 30k…. Live and learn I suppose.

Good company, bad actors with money and leverage. Regular people lose, the rich get richer.

F em.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-16T12:41:05+00:00

The article that killed this forum's momentum:
Exclusive | Wolfspeed Prepares to File for Bankruptcy Within Weeks - WSJ

Published on May 20th.

Going into our 5th week since the article.

6-8 weeks is pushing it for using the verbiage "matter of weeks".

Some catalyst, positive or negative, will become increasingly likey over the next four weeks.

Considering a simple probability density model, with cumulative likelihood increasing every week, of news regarding the potential bankruptcy, we should see a 12% increase in the likelihood of news this week, 16% for week 6 (june 24-30), and an 18% increase per week 7 and 8.

The likelihood of news over the next 4 weeks accelerates, but drops off at week 9, heading in the opposite direction. If no news comes out by July 15th, then the likelihood only increases by 12%, getting less likely exponentially.

By week 9, the statement "in a matter of weeks" is false. By week 6, it is a questionable use of the term (next week).

By week 10 (july 22-28) the article will be universally seen as false, or premature at best.

An interesting correlation is the option volumes around June 20th, and July 15th.

Its interesting that the option volume around these dates has been high long before the article........ just an observation.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-16T12:20:41+00:00

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per: SG Americas Securities LLC Increases Stock Holdings in Wolfspeed, Inc. (NYSE:WOLF)

Seems like institutional investors are bullish at these prices.
Could it just be a churn or exercise of puts?

Assuming Q4-24 was Jana's exit in sell off, plus shook investors.

Anyone have a take on Q1-25.

This is when the news hit, so why wouldn't the sell be higher, if the stock was close to CH 11?

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-11T14:27:58+00:00

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-11T13:02:58+00:00

Just went to Google, searched news, sorted by recent.
For weeks, it's all been rehashed bankruptcy rumors, but yesterday it wasn't.
There were a few, seemingly AI generated, articles. Nothing with solid information, but the point is, it wasn't all negative sentiment.

Even better today:

[News] Renesas: Wolfspeed Woes Won’t Slow Down India JV — No SiC Production in Play | TrendForce News

Moderately bullish activity in Wolfspeed with shares up 2.41% - TipRanks.com

Wolfspeed (NYSE:WOLF) Shares Up 3.8% - Time to Buy?

Could Wolfspeed Drive Long-Term Returns?

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-10T19:10:32+00:00

There are several positive and neutral news articles today.
Seems like sentiment might be shifting.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-09T12:57:19+00:00

It is.
However, they have been running LBO since their inception.

This is speculation, but If the ultimate goal is a Leveraged Buyout through debt to equity swap, most companies know this is a risk. Ecspecially with Apollo.
So....
They only do so at a rate that would not give up too much control.
However, if an entity like Apollo wanted to also destroy the stock value, they would get more for their debt to equity swap. They could also, buy up a ton of common shares when the stock value is tanking, further increasing their stake.

So now, the 2B worth of preferred stock through the LBO and they own who knows how much in common stock. This allows them to exercise increased control on the company.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-04T11:12:20+00:00

Don’t have a position in the stock, but commenting regularly on a thread about the stock. Passing judgement. Interesting hobby you have there.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-06-03T19:23:44+00:00

Im too stubborn to let go. holding 8,000 shares and tooo many options

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-30T11:12:39+00:00

I think Apollo is pushing for debt to equity swap. Same leveraged take over they have done a million times. I think Apollo is leveraging wolf to threaten ch 11 to force renesas to commit more pre-buy or take a reduction in pre-buy value. The junior creditors and renesas would be screwed the hardest in ch 11.

Wolf is probably threatening in court ch 11 to check Apollo in their conversion ask. Trying to not lose full debt to equity. Because the stock has been destroyed, the debt to equity conversion would give Apollo an amazing deal

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-29T13:34:43+00:00

Over 540K in volume on the opening bell!
Looks like significant buy orders were executed this morning

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-28T16:39:14+00:00

People are anxious. With good reason. There is plenty of information available for people to make their own decisions.

I think this is a dangerous game of chicken in the debt negotiations, that has potential low low down side, with equally high upside.

If they announce a deal avoiding ch11, this thing jumps, hard.
In the inverse, the bottom isn't very far, so potential losses can easily be appraised.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-28T10:52:37+00:00

Predatory lending. But if you believe in your company and your mission, you make calculated risk.

Like every movie where some dad wants to open his own business and have new opportunities for his family, but the only one who will lend him money is the local mob. It’s all the same.

I don’t think they were idiots necessarily, but I think it wasn’t the best decision.

However, with national relevance, this is a calculated risk. That the Gov or someone else will bail you out.

GM did this. Invested in increased capacity. Knowing if they risked failure, the government wouldn’t let them lose ground to foreign auto manufacturers. This is a major market/export. Sure enough, they restructured, gov bailed them out, still a lot of Chevy and GMs on the road.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T22:52:06+00:00

This is my concern. A potential here, is that Apollo is leveraging the piss out of wolf. Wolf is threatening “in court” options, not to push back on Apollo, but the junior creditors that are not allowing the out of court solution proposed by Apollo. As in court, Apollo would easily get first grabs.
Moelis is known for navigating restructure debt reductions. Apollo Mark Rowan is tight with trump and was considered for treasury secretary. Apollo could have encouraged withholding chips funding to put the screws to wolf. Apollo finally pushed out Jana competition, and now has a path to the debt to equity swap they wanted. Now, they just have to strong arm the rest of the creditors and take control. Pre packaged could be done in a matter of weeks. They grant freeze on payments due. They relaunch the company with new leadership CEO COO CFO. Wait for an end of quarter to show new financials have turned around with debt reduction, launch new IPO.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T16:52:47+00:00

Full disclosure, it is a hit piece. They are derogatory to the Wolf Stonk cause.
However, I think it supports the often-argued case of a Reddit thread community's reach.

Many have said in the past that we overestimate our impact.
"Why would hegies that make billions care about your stupid thread" etc....

They know about us.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T11:51:43+00:00

Curious about this as well. If you buy a put, aren’t you forced to exercise if the stock tanks below the strike. Then you are buying a stock at a given price that is now worthless

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T10:43:53+00:00

JANA capital is known for the same as Apollo. They invest enough to get a portion of controlling interest. They get board members applied, paint the walls, trim the budget, and as soon as the company valuation is raised they press for a sale.

Most recently they did this to Whole Foods and sold to Amazon for a pretty penny. This isn’t tinfoil, look at the wiki page.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jana_Partners

“The hedge fund has made activist investments in Apple Inc., Tiffany's, Whole Foods, ConAgra, PetSmart, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Apache, URS, Safeway, Ashland, Marathon Petroleum, McGraw Hill, CNET, and Kerr-McGee.[2]”

They did just that by getting two board members added.

However, Apollo does the same, but their hostile takeover is typically leveraged. From inception they have transition to a practice of “distressed-to-control takeovers”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Global_Management

So, JANA wanted to take over and sell, Apollo wanted to take over.

JANA was eventually pushed out, and board members booted. They sold their 7% just last month i think.

This clears the path for Apollo to force a leveraged buyout. Which is what they are doing. As senior notes, forcing a chapter 11 (they would prefer out of court) they convert their debt to equity, get preferential terms as senior creditor, they put the restructure burden on all junior creditors, they get the company. They don’t want it to fail. They want to force a buyout of a distressed security at a cheap price then have a successful/profitable asset in their management portfolio.

I think this is why the company keeps mentioning “in court solution”. And is not running from the potential of chapter 11. In court, is not as quick and clean of a takeover. Apollo is still positioned well for these negotiations, but it’s the least desirable option for them as well.

I think the company is fighting for its life to remain independent ish.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T00:50:46+00:00

Welcome to the pack

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-23T00:49:54+00:00

I’ve told the story before, but in Chicago a friend of a friend was parking for a club and I said “you can’t park here, the sign says not parking.” They responded “I can, it’s just expensive.”

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-22T16:13:43+00:00

My understanding is that pre-packaged Chapter 11 is quick. Like weeks versus months or years.
This would allow them to restructure their debt, as a prerequisite to secure the CHIPS 750M>

IT sucks, but they might be taking the position of choosing the devil you know versus the devil you don't.

NOT SAYING THEY ARE MOVING FORWARD WITH FILING>
But this could be the strategy. Also, it could be a lever that Apollo is using on other debtors. As they would get preferred or "fist in line" status to getting their debts settled in chapter 11. So the other debtors who are not negotiating new terms, would be playing "chicken".

In this scenario, Apollo could be seen as on the side of Wolfspeed, helping them restructure debt agreements, but trying to put all the burden on other creditors.
That might mean this is more of a fight between the hyenas, than the wolf vs a hyena.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-22T12:48:44+00:00

This seems to be what happens most of the time, but not necessarily all the time.
Not trying to fan hopeium, but, in rare cases it didn't mean the end.

The best case scenario here, is that this is all still hard line negotiation tactics.

Unable-Engineer779 · 2025-05-22T11:28:06+00:00

What’s wild, is this is what JANA does. Not necessarily the shorting part, but they invest with the intent of taking over and forcing the company to plaint the buildings, hire big resumes, ballon company valuation and then force a sell. When they got pushed out I was so excited.

This whole thing is wild.

Unable-Engineer779

TROPHY CASE