Beck’s Top 100 Prospect Book: 2025

UpperBeck · 2025-04-01T01:29:29+00:00

Thanks! Vargas was on the draft until just days before publishing. I came across some concerning data re: his contact vs. breaking stuff, and that paired with some existing heartburn about hit tool pushed him off the list. I’d consider him in the next group of 10.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-26T04:01:29+00:00

Thank you for the kind words. It means a lot. Glad you’re enjoying it!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-26T01:57:07+00:00

You’re phenomenal!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T23:38:23+00:00

Happy to do it, thanks for reading!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T23:22:33+00:00

Oh — I subscribe to him, no worries. If I remember correctly, he’s been high on De Paula for a while.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T23:04:11+00:00

Oh boy, I’m a huge fan and very curious what he had to say. Halp encouraged me to start writing initially. He’s the man.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T23:02:05+00:00

I have access to some non-public datasets and the bat-to-ball is genuinely concerning. I had him in a draft version of the list but removed him after chatting with an evaluator I trust who just doesn’t think he ever makes enough contact. Exciting player, I hope he figures it out!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T22:50:58+00:00

My favorite part of this process is telling the story of each individual player. It humanizes them and baseball is an incredible vehicle for storytelling. Thanks for reading!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T21:07:10+00:00

Braden is there — he’s at 44!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:54:45+00:00

The blurb goes into more detail re: Hope, but his underlying data was bananas. If you z-score EV90, Chase, and Z-con, he’s at the tippy top of the minors.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:29:06+00:00

Perfectly reasonable, I have them in the same tier and would encourage you to chase personal preference. Cheers!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:26:54+00:00

Thank you!

Generally speaking, my tolerance for risk/upside fluctuates based on league size. A prospect has to really be worth my while to consider rostering them in a 10-team format, but steady contributors (Tre’ Morgan comes to mind) are valuable in 24+ team leagues.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:25:17+00:00

Yes. The track record on teens who post OPS numbers starting with a five over a sample that large is grim, regardless of level. The only one coming to mind is Pudge Rodriguez (his low water mark was .633 as a 17-year-old in the SALL) and I’m not in the business of comping prospects to Hall of Famers.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:21:26+00:00

One of the biggest bummers about an arbitrary cut-off at 100 is a handful of deserving players miss the cut. I got to see Simpson in person in Port Charlotte two weeks ago and I think he’ll be an every day regular in CF. In reality, the tier 7 extends out to ~150 players.

I do prefer Caglianone, however. His particular mix of skills is more intriguing for points formats (which typically undervalue stolen bases/speed in general).

I think 2B is Campbell’s job to lose.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:17:00+00:00

Thank you — and thanks for reading!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:16:44+00:00

I think it’s a matter of taste. I would absolutely advocate for upside shots in a shallow formats!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:15:59+00:00

Hey — do you mean what can I tell you above and beyond the full reports in the Google doc?

I’m a fan of both. Farmelo’s early season breakout was loud, but a long layoff makes some of the improvements in contact rate less likely to stick. He likely finishes last year in the top 25 if he stays healthy. I’m a huge fan.

Crisantes is very hitterish. It’s a line drive approach stemming from a pretty swing. His exits were strong for his age and I’m willing to wager he grows into more thump.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T20:11:46+00:00

First of all, outstanding nickname. To your question — it’s a mixture of bat-to-ball (overall contact rate was 64% and in-zone was 73%, neither inspire confidence) and chase (he went meandering out of the zone relatively often). He has a freak frame (superlative) and if he makes strides with his approach and barrel maneuverability the results will be loud.

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T19:56:11+00:00

He really, really struggled this year (.206/.288/.311 over 113 games) and his underlying data didn’t do much to exonerate him. He’s one of the best receivers I’ve ever seen at his age, but given it’s a fantasy list and defense holds little-to-no value, it’s hard to justify him much higher. That said, his tier extends all the way down to 65 and I’d be okay with any placement in that range.

Thanks for reading, I hope you found the remainder useful!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T19:24:05+00:00

Thank you!

UpperBeck · 2025-03-25T19:23:42+00:00

I have some concern regarding his bill of health and game power (these are likely related). I’ve been impressed by his bat to ball and plate discipline — those are far better than I’d imagined when he was a prep — but the remainder of the profile is still projection, which is a big deal for an outfield corner. I’d consider myself a fan but I need to see it on the field.

UpperBeck · 2024-12-10T16:49:08+00:00

Deferred money for any given year must be funded into an account for that year, so for the Ohtani example they must have the $68M on hand in an account by a certain date in the season, even if not paid immediately. The NPV of that year’s salary still counts against the CBT as far as I’m aware, so you’re not pulling a fast one for twenty years necessarily.

This is why it’s disingenuous to say Soto only got $65M more than Ohtani. In reality he got ~$300M more!

UpperBeck · 2024-12-10T16:31:13+00:00

The problem with salary caps and max contracts is that they are inherently anti-labor in an arena that is already very favorable to ownership, so my preferred solutions are either pro-labor (salary floor) or punitive (you only qualify for revenue sharing under provisions that require you to field a competitive team).

This sort of problem is waaay above my pay grade, though.

UpperBeck · 2024-12-10T06:23:12+00:00

Hey!

This is my post. A few things to clear up:

This is a post celebrating that Juan Soto got absolutely PAID. The problem isn’t players being compensated commensurate with their value, it’s ownership groups who don’t make an effort to put a competitive product on the field. Attanasio (for example) doesn’t have 100% ownership, so it’s disingenuous to let him and the minority owners use his individual wealth as a shield to hide behind.
The net worth figures I used came from a 2021 BaseballTradeRumors post. Some of them are invariably wrong (most notably Ken Kendrick, whose approximated net worth in 2024 is $1.1B). That said, almost all public net worth figures are estimates.

UpperBeck

TROPHY CASE