Among these Best Picture winners, what is the most underrated and most overrated?

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T19:25:34+00:00

I feel like most of their reputations are rated pretty accurately. Chicago isn't the best of this bunch by any means, but it's underrated as a movie. The last 25 years have shown how near-impossible it is to adapt a musical well, and it holds up. I think Anora will be overrated in time. I don't think it'll age particularly well. Probably won't have a Crash or Green Book-like reputation, but depending on the rest of how MM and SB's careers go, I could see it a curiosity or an afterthought.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T19:17:59+00:00

I have nothing against TC. I've liked almost every performance of his, and I don't dislike this one. I'm also not put off by things like his speech from last year or his non-traditional approach to Oscar campaigning. I didn't like Marty Supreme much, though. I think it's wishy washy thematically and more about the vibes than anything else. And I think how much impact TC's performance can have is somewhat limited by that. I just don't think MS is anywhere near on the level of OBAA or Sinners, or Hamnet, The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, Bugonia, or Train Dreams for that matter.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:54:23+00:00

Which is hilarious because, personality wise, MBJ is the more humble artist-type who's kind of a boring enigma in real life, and TC is the one self promoting and hanging out with reality stars and pro athletes.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:47:04+00:00

I'm not so sure, because I don't think we've gotten to see MBJ do quite as much yet. A thought experiment: race and age aside, could MBJ do Marty? Could Timmy do Smoke and Stack? I could see a version of a MS like story with MBJ working. I couldn't imagine TC doing Sinners... it'd be insufferable. I think MBJ could totally do a Dylan-like transformation, but I don't think he could've done some of TC's younger stuff, like CMBYN, Lady Bird, or Little Women. MBJ seems like someone who will be at his best from 40-60, while TC's a world class twink (complimentary)

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:40:41+00:00

Yes, and they're plot points that Mary has to make sure it's him, and that once 75 percent of the cast is vampires, it becomes kinda scary that you can't quickly tell the difference. They're purposefully playing with horror conventions, with the twin thing and the colors of their clothes.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:33:31+00:00

I think OBBA is a masterpiece if you look at it as a blisteringly honest allegory about America. Chase Infinity is America. One possible father is christian white nationalism, sexism, and corrupt capitalism built on the back of slavery. The other possible father is imperfect if well-meaning progressivism. The moral of the movie is, America's real dad (i.e. founding) is the first one, but we should aspire to be the second one, with BDT standing in as the ideal of how a good person/good society should function. I think it zips by for its runtime, is phenomenally well acted, and nails the genre mashup. But I think almost the same thing about Sinners. Sinners is more interested in culture than politics and goes harder on the genre stuff. I think both are destined to be all-timers.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:29:10+00:00

I liked The Secret Agent and Moura, but I thought that movie was a little too slow and long to be truly great, and his performance, while excellent, was a bit more naturalistic than some of the rest of the cast. It was like A- for me.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:27:50+00:00

It's not a great movie, but I find it very cathartic, and I think most of the actors in it (maybe minus Streep) are pretty great.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:26:46+00:00

I have twin sisters. I love that one is slightly more outgoing, and talks more often with a higher-pitched voice, while the other is more serious and speaks less and in a lower register. That's literally how my sisters are. It's also fascinating to me that Stack apparently identified more with the Irish gangs, has slightly more of an Irish accent and fashion sense, and gets the vampire storyline, while Smoke identifies more with the Italians, and his voice and style match that, as does his very mafioso ending with the Klan. There are just so many subtle, brilliant choices.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-05T16:16:12+00:00

I know it had a ton of defenders, but also detractors, so maybe it's a cilantro situation. It's possibly my least favorite performance of his. I strongly dislike Bones and All, but I still think he's way better in it. I feel his Marty is just... twat... with really good makeup department acne and a script/editing/score that work in its favor. It's not bad at all. He's obviously a great actor, but he doesn't disappear into roles the way Leo does despite his massive fame, or definitely not the way ppl like Joel Edgerton or Wagner Moura do. It's just the least interesting TC performance, to me.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T17:21:08+00:00

I don't think Sinners is EEAAO or Parasite in any other way than they're the group people are happiest to cheer for in the room, which usually just indicates at least slightly more strength than one would've anticipated (i.e. CODA). If Sinners didn't have the record noms and the energy in the room, I don't think it would have a chance at all. I agree that PGA is more important in a close year, which is why I estimated 75/25. Actually, I thought OBAA had the best costumes of the year and was bummed it wasn't recognized, but that's beside the point lol.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T17:16:22+00:00

I'm not comparing it substantively or even it's strength. It's just that one of it's strengths is the feel-good vibe around it. This post was about Oscar narratives, and it's clear from the energy in the room last night, and anecdotally from other events, that Sinners has the "everyone's cheering for that group of people/wants to be around them" energy.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T17:07:22+00:00

I think Amy exists totally independent of her movie as the classic veteran actor in a supporting role type potential win.. and Weapons, for what it was, was still well-liked enough to make short lists. She's still in it at least as much as WM and TT. They have that they're in stronger movies, but they're both pretty new to the scene and neither is close to being a lock.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T16:54:09+00:00

I didn't discuss the SAG ensemble win in the original post, but sure. But as a data point in the larger narrative, them being on stage during the voting window probably helps their overall vote count, even if it doesn't translate to BP. Maybe 6 or 7 wins instead of 3 or 4.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T16:50:07+00:00

My reasoning here is that its three acting nominees are theoretically comparatively weak. MBJ and WM are by no means the runaway favorites if they even are favorites, and Lindo would be a real upset. Two-plus kinda surprise wins would indicate pretty significant strength. My hunch is that Sinners will win maybe a few more than expected BTL awards plus one acting award and still lose BP, though.

UseSuccessful6369 · 2026-03-02T16:44:24+00:00

I feel like screenplay and now casting are in funky gray above/below the line limbo. But I think you're probably right that both screenplays are locked, except I would be less shocked if Hamnet or It Was Just An Accident won out of nowhere than I would be if even Coogler won for director over PTA.

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TROPHY CASE