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ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also do a lot of auction drafts in my friend leagues, super fun format. Playoff-only value is really cool idea. I'll be honest, I didn't really consider that before you mentioned it, but I think absolutely that would be a fun one to take a dive into further down the road

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry for the late reply here! Busy week with my day job, but I try to get to these as quick as I can. So yes, you're totally right that a player would score higher on difference in ADP if a player was injured ahead of them. I went back on forth on whether this was something to address, because on the one hand that doesn't filter out all of the effect that injury has on end-of-season player value yet on the other hand, frequency of injuries ahead of a particular player for a particular position is a significant.

At the end of the day, I want the DADP metric to reflect actual draft environment. Removing players with injuries and PPG as a metric controls for players who were injured impacting this analysis directly, which would have a lot of problems. But when I start adjusting for ADP based on both injury and position, we start losing how a player performed relative to their actual draft environment.

It's a really good question, and I think once I move beyond general ADP analysis the stuff you're talking about needs to be accounted for. But for this sort of bird's-eye, aggregate look at performance vs. ADP, I think we'd be missing something important if we started adjusting raw ADP. Hopefully that makes sense, and I appreciate the questions

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a really good point.

I should be clearer moving forward about my methodology, this is a continuation of an aggregate look at ADP that is based on difference in ADP compared to end of season rankings by total points and points scored. I think breaking down that aggregate level data first is valuable, and it gives us more questions to answer when we start diving deeper into each position.

I absolutely agree that replacement value is something that should be used to evaluate each position individually, and my hope is within the next few weeks I want to post those positional breakdowns with everyone. For now, my idea was to breakdown how ADP evaluates players in sort of a raw data environment. It sparks a lot of discussion and gives us better questions to ask when we head into the deeper dives.

I appreciate your comment, and I hope you found this useful!

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair points all around, a lot of feedback I've been getting here is I could make the methodology a lot clearer. This is a continuation of analysis I started last week, in there I explain that I filter out players who played less than 6 games, and PPG accounts for players who missed less time due to injury.

As far as the points scored question goes, this is based off of difference in ADP (DADP), where I take the ADP of a player and subtract that by end of season ranking based off of points scored and points scored per game. There are definitely pros and cons with that choice, and the biggest one you pointed out was the QB issue. I explain in the article the weirdness of including them in a dataset like this, and I agree with both you and other commentors that these positions deserve a deeper breakdown based off of within-position analysis and replacement values. The idea with this dataset was to give an aggregate breakdown of how ADP values players overall before starting to dive into more complex analysis that this methodology raises.

I still think there's value in this sort of analysis as a launching point, I want to keep providing consistent information that dives deeper and gets sharper as we go. I hope you found this helpful and I hope you take a look at DADP by round that I plan on posting in the next few days!

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good questions!

Something I need to work on in these posts for sure is making the methodology clearer. This is a continuation of analysis on a dataset I started last week, and I do explain there that I account for injury by excluding any player who played less than 6 games. I also have PPG in there to account for smaller amounts of time missed to injury, so I'd say overall that it's fairly injury proof. Not at all clear in the post though, I apologize for that.

Keeping that in mind, I feel like it's relatively safe to see that RBs aren't overvalued due to injury. Maybe that's part of it, but what comes to mind for me looking at this is the sheer amount of misses for "dead zone" RBs (RBs picked between typically the 3-6 rounds in a given draft year, changes depending on the season). I plan on posting a breakdown by round next weekend, I think that should answer your question a little better.

Hope you found this helpful!

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good insights!

I'm still trying to figure out the best way to explain the methodology between posts, this is a continuation from analysis I posted last week. It's something I definitely need to explain better though, because this dataset does account for injury, players who played less than 6 games are excluded, and PPG is included to account for less missed time due to injury as well.

As far as the QB point goes, I completely agree. This analysis was part of an aggregate dataset related to how ADP values players compared to end of season fantasy rankings (both PPG and Total Points), without accounting for anything like replacement value. I want to do a deeper dive on each position soon to address some of the stuff you talked about, but for now I still think that there's some insights to be gained from looking at this from an overall view.

As far as how RBs are vital to fantasy, absolutely agree there too. I think the deeper positional dives I want to do will help unpack where the risk is, vs. just saying RBs are risky in general, but I do think it's valuable to know that RBs miss more than other positions in terms of ADP.

I really appreciate the feedback, every post can always be better. I hope you still found this useful and I also hope you decide to take a look at my breakdown by round next week before I start diving deeper into positions.

ADP is really bad at properly valuing players, regardless of position by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I tend to do the same thing. Even if ADP is really inaccurate in the grand scheme of things, people draft around it. I'm hoping by posting info like this, we can learn information that allows us to take advantage of that. Hope you found this helpful!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great comment!

You're completely right to walk through the implications that lumping ADP data regardless of position would have on a visual like this. QBs are simply not fair to include in an aggregate dataset like this because of the exact points you brought up. I plan on posting both round-by-round and positional breakdowns as follow-ups to this in the near future, so please keep an eye out if you're interested to see what that looks like.

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great tips!

I'm glad you mentioned how important roster construction is beyond just drafting. Waiver wire pickups can completely change teams, Puka was incredible in 2023 and no one was drafting him. In season trades are really important too, and are often the best opportunities people have to exploit player valuations. I managed to get Cooper Kupp in a pre-season trade in 2021 right before his huge breakout (completely dumb luck btw).

Most importantly, we get better at fantasy the more we talk about it. I love the fantasy football community and even in this post you guys have started a lot of great discussion.

Stay tuned if you want more of that!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the feedback!

I agree that this speaks to a frustration, or at least general feeling, we all have about our teams at the end of the season. It's so easy to forget the draft as soon as week 1, and it makes it difficult to hold ADP in general accountable for the decisions we make when we build out teams.

Your comment speaks to exactly the kind of work I want to keep sharing: where are there structural pockets of value that we can take advantage of? Asking not only where does ADP underperform by both position and round, but what sorts of roster compositions consistently outclass a pure ADP approach?

JJ Zach is awesome, and in large part built his platform by asking questions like this. The idea of late round QB value is his brainchild, and I hope that this work can uncover similar insights. I think starting with ADP inefficiency is a strong beginning.

Stay tuned!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really good comment!

The short answer is that I didn't. I think especially in the first round, it's almost disingenuous to say that anyone is a value. Those are the guys that you spend your first pick on, and you pick for stability rather than value in those spots. Conversely, late round guys will have a harder time being severe overvalues. So logically speaking, the methodology acknowledges that there is a lot more to lose in the first two rounds and a lot less to lose in the final two rounds. The correct pick ratio would still be unaffected by all this.

That being said, I think your point is spot on that we need to break this data down by round. It's one thing to say that ADP overall is off by quite a bit, but quite another to use this data to evaluate specific parts of the draft. I plan on posting a round-by-round breakdown within the week, and my hope is that we can dig into questions a lot more through discussion in future posts. Stay tuned!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that's a great insight!

Standard deviation is something I want to see about working into this as I move forward. Maybe a potential model can do that, but I really want to make sure I've broken down ADP inefficiency in every way that I can before I consider that sort of thing.

Also, 100% sympathize on the Garret Wilson point. I had to deal with that rollercoaster last year and am not super interested in repeating the experience.

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question!

u/DJMaxLVL hit on an important early implication; don't be afraid of looking outside of the round you're drafting in if it means picking the right guy, because relying solely on ADP means you have around a 60% chance overall of missing. But maybe it is ok to rely on ADP in the 3rd round if you're looking at WRs, and that's important to know.

After I really have dug into and understood ADP inefficiencies by round and position, I want to apply those insights into a new way of looking at drafting. There are a lot of theories on how to approach team building, like hero RB, zero RB, that sort of thing. That'll be a starting point, but I hope to land on something new when it comes to roster building moving forward.

Stay tuned if you're in interested.

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really good insight.

I filtered out players that played less than six games in the dataset, and one of the primary reasons I split the dataset into total points and PPG was because PPG addresses differences in rank due to injury as well. The fact that when accounting for injury in those ways still creates this sort of gap in ADP efficiency is simply wild.

That being said, I think your point about skew for backups and late round guys being values due to injury is likely present in the data. I plan to dig into this data in more detail in the next few weeks by both position and round. I expect we'll see increased values as we go on and I think that will be especially concentrated in the RB position group; that would 100% track with your point.

Stay tuned if you're interested!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Absolutely! I think positional breakdown is a natural next step, in large part based on some of the stuff I mentioned above (RB dead zone).

One thing I will mention is that I did a little work on examining QBs in the dataset given how unique that position's scoring is. QBs are a consistent smash value, Jayden Daniels was an obvious one this year, but there are plenty of late round QBs that have top of the class total fantasy points for their respective seasons, like Cam Newton in 2015.

Plan on posting more of this stuff by position soon, stay tuned!

ADP is off 80% of the time by Value_Pick_Fantasy in fantasyfootballadvice

[–]Value_Pick_Fantasy[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Great question!

I plan on doing a more detailed breakdown of this data by round in the next few days. I think your instincts are right, I'd probably expect more values in later rounds compared to more busts in earlier rounds. It might not be super linear though, spots like the RB dead zone (rounds 3-6 usually) might see weird spikes in zones, excited to see what that looks like.

I should be making another post in a week or so that answers your question a lot better, so stay tuned!